China-Singapore Jingwei, July 9 (Wang Yuling) "After Abe's death, the Yamato Saidaiji station where he was assassinated was crowded. The crowd spontaneously went to offer condolences. Flowers even blocked the road." Chairman Pan Ruowei said in an interview with Sino-Singapore Jingwei.

　　On the morning of the 8th, when former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was giving a speech in Nara City, he was shot by a man and died of his injuries at the age of 67.

　　Shinzo Abe is a veritable "evergreen tree" in Japan's political circles. He has served as Japan's prime minister twice for nine years.

During this period, he proposed the controversial "Abenomics", which has far-reaching influence on Japan.

　　As a Chinese businessman, Pan Ruowei has had many exchanges with Abe.

After hearing the news of Abe's death, Pan Ruowei said that on the one hand, he felt sorry for Abe's assassination; on the other hand, he was also worried about the follow-up of Abenomics.

"General economic growth, but generally rising prices"

　　In 2012, Shinzo Abe became the Prime Minister of Japan for the second time. In order to survive the so-called "lost 20 years" after the collapse of the bubble economy, he launched the "Three Arrows" of "Abenomics", namely radical loose monetary policy, active fiscal policy, and structural reforms to boost growth.

　　Dashou Group, where Pan Ruowei is located, mainly conducts trade activities between China and Japan, and its main business is consulting, research and development of IT products.

He introduced to Sino-Singapore Jingwei that after Abe took office, from the perspective of the Chinese business environment, there has been a certain improvement.

　　"Chinese businessmen are less engaged in manufacturing in Japan, mainly in trade, investment and service industries, etc. Shinzo Abe has always supported the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy, which is reflected in extremely low loan interest rates, which are almost zero. For enterprises, the availability of funds The cost of operation is greatly reduced, which can ease the tension of cash flow." Pan Ruowei said.

　　In addition to the zero interest rate on loans, Pan Ruowei pointed out that the Bank of Japan also greatly printed the yen, and the yen began to depreciate rapidly, which greatly improved the profitability of export companies, and also helped the rapid recovery of the stock market.

　　For companies, according to the Ministry of Finance of Japan's statistics on companies, the company's "ordinary profit" in 2012 was about 48 trillion yen, and six years later in 2018, it increased to about 83 trillion yen. The employment situation also improved.

　　On the other hand, Abenomics has also caused certain social conflicts in Japan.

Pan Ruowei said that although Japan's economy has generally grown, the lives of Japanese people have become more difficult.

Because the economy has not been stimulated for many years before, and Japanese prices have hardly risen, but under Abe's administration, prices have generally risen, and people need to use the same money to buy more expensive goods, making life more difficult.

Meanwhile, during Abe's second term in office, the consumption tax rate was raised from 5% to 10%, and the average spending of salaried households was also heavily burdened by taxes and social insurance premiums.

Where will Abenomics go?

　　After Abe's first encounter, the yen changed its recent slump and went out of the market with a slight appreciation.

The yen rose along with JGBs, the yen rose 0.5% against the dollar at one point

　　In this regard, Pan Ruowei analyzed that this may mean that the yen will change from the current depreciation to appreciation. In addition, the stock price may decrease, or cause a certain blow to the Japanese economy.

　　Shao Yu, chief economist of Orient Securities, said in an interview with the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Research Institute that Japan is currently in a very embarrassing situation. The easing policy cannot be withdrawn, the exchange rate has fallen sharply, and the economy may have entered a state of obvious recession.

In this case, emergencies may have a short-term impact on the Japanese economy and stock market.

　　Shao Yu believes that "Abenomics" advocates monetary easing, which stimulates exports to a certain extent and also brings a certain boost to the stock market.

But "Abenomics" may also come to an end after the assassination.

However, the negative impact of unlimited QE on the economy will also take a generation of Japanese to bear.

It is expected that the status quo of the lack of vitality of the Japanese economy will continue.

(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)

(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)