China Fund News reporter Zhang Yanbei
Recently, more than a dozen fund companies have released their investment strategies for the second half of the year, analyzing and forecasting the equity market conditions and investment opportunities in the second half of 2022.
Public offerings generally believe that the market is coming out of the previous downturn, and A-share earnings are expected to usher in improvement, but it remains to be seen whether a general upward trend has been formed.
In terms of specific investment opportunities, the growth style is expected to dominate in stages in the second half of the year, and other structural opportunities will also emerge.
Fund managers should pay attention to balanced allocation, and actively grasp the structural market situation with the prosperity as a clue.
Economic recovery is expected to continue
In response to the macroeconomic operation in the second half of the year, public fundraising institutions predict that the economy may return to normalized growth in the second half of the year, and the growth trend for the whole year will be low before and then high.
As far as the third quarter is concerned, Qianhai Open Source Fund pointed out that from the perspective of domestic macroeconomic conditions, due to the tightening of epidemic prevention and control policies, the economic data in the second quarter declined. Compared with the same period last year, the economic data in April and May is expected to be the same as that of the same period last year. low.
According to the relevant policies of the State Council and the first quarter monetary policy implementation report of the central bank, monetary policy will remain loose, and fiscal policy is expected to exert rapid force.
In addition, the policy of stabilizing consumption and employment will become the main policy force.
If the epidemic is under control, the economic data in the third quarter may recover.
Li Zhan, chief economist of the research department of China Merchants Fund, judged that the low point of GDP growth rate for the whole year may have been reached.
Li Zhan analyzed that as the epidemic stabilized, policies were fully exerted, and the bottom of growth rose.
The economy started smoothly in the first quarter, and the economic pressure increased instead of decreasing in the second quarter. In the third and fourth quarters, as the disturbance of the epidemic is expected to gradually weaken, the government's work focus has shifted from epidemic prevention and control to the implementation of the "stable growth" policy. to lift the bottom.
It is estimated that the GDP growth rates of Q2, Q3 and Q4 are 0.9-1%, 5.8-6.0% and 6-6.3% respectively, and the annual GDP growth rate is about 4.5-4.6%.
In the second half of the year, the economic growth rate is expected to achieve a bottom uplift driven by policies
CCB Fund analysis said that as the world enters a cycle of interest rate hikes, global economic growth will continue to slow in the coming year.
From a domestic point of view, my country's economy is expected to usher in a certain degree of recovery in the second half of the year, of which infrastructure and consumption are important points of view.
In terms of infrastructure, the peak of special bond issuance has formed a strong support for infrastructure investment in the third quarter, and may become one of the most noteworthy directions after the current round of epidemics; automobiles are the focus of this round of consumption policies. Wind data shows that automobiles are in social consumer goods. It accounts for about 27% of the total retail sales, and with favorable policies, it is expected to drive consumption recovery.
From the perspective of the global environment, the Fed’s interest rate hike in the third quarter or in stages will disrupt monetary policy expectations and exchange rates, but my country’s monetary policy is likely to be dominated by the domestic economic environment. The current funding rate is relatively loose, and the follow-up will follow economic fundamentals. Fix back to a reasonable level.
Invesco Great Wall Fund believes that as the epidemic is gradually brought under control, the economy will bottom out and rebound.
The resumption of work and production in various places is progressing in an orderly manner, the preliminary reserve projects have gradually been implemented, the industrial chain has begun to recover, production and consumption have rebounded, and superimposed policies have been introduced to underpin the downward pressure on the economy, and the domestic economy has begun to move on the right track.
With the confirmation of the bottom of the policy, steady growth has gradually taken effect, the economic pressure has eased marginally, and the chain has begun to recover. However, unlike the rapid recovery in 2020, the expectations of residents and enterprises, balance sheets, and cash flow have been affected in the past two years. In view of continued erosion, the magnitude of policy leveraging has decreased compared with the past, and the recovery slope may slow down.
The strength and intensity of economic recovery remains to be seen, but there is still room for upward repair, and policies need to continue to exert force.
Structural opportunities are greater than overall opportunities in shocks
In response to the trend of A-shares in the second half of the year, fund companies consistently believe that they should focus on the combination of weak recovery + strong policy + low valuation level, and the overall A-share market in the second half of the year can be optimistic.
The recovery of the economy is also expected to promote the post-real estate cycle and the rebound of big finance, which can also be paid attention to.
Chuangjin Hexin Fund believes that the relative advantages of fundamentals will support the continued strength of Chinese assets over the periphery.
From a fundamental point of view, the advantages of Chinese assets over U.S. stocks are gradually emerging: First, the economic cycle between China and the United States is dislocated, and there is room for monetary policy easing; second, the fundamentals are the first to bottom out, and the Chinese economy is expected to move from recession to weak recovery, compared with the global economy from stagflation. Turning to recession has a clear comparative advantage.
"And in a shock, the structural opportunity is greater than the overall opportunity."
Wei Fengchun, chief economist of Chuangjin Hexin Fund, said that from the perspective of the profit cycle, the second quarter is the low point of profit for the year, the third quarter will recover with certainty, and the effect of overseas demand contraction in the fourth quarter will appear, which may put pressure on exports, and domestic demand may be difficult to form a strong hedge. , overseas tail risks may also impact domestic fundamentals in the short term. We maintain a volatile judgment on the overall market.
After this round of rebound, the valuation of the broad-based index has generally rebounded to around 50%. When the macro environment does not support the bull market hypothesis, the pressure on the valuation to continue to rise has increased.
After the oversold rebound, the market still fluctuated in the third quarter, and the structural opportunities in the fluctuations were greater than the overall opportunities.
CCB Fund believes that the expected improvement in the fundamentals of the domestic economy, as well as the stable currency and credit, may form support for the A-share market.
At present, the profit of listed companies has little downside. With the fall in commodity prices, the profits of companies in the middle and downstream industries are also expected to gradually improve. However, in the short term, it is still necessary to pay attention to the risk of adjustment of profit expectations in semi-annual reports.
At the same time, although the valuation of A-shares has been significantly restored since the previous bottom rebound, the price-performance ratio of stocks and bonds is still in a relatively favorable range, the valuation quantile is also at the historical median level, and the valuation risk is low.
Invesco Great Wall Fund judged that the current domestic policy bottom and economic bottom have been confirmed, and this round of A-share decline since the beginning of 2021 is sufficient in time and space, and investor confidence has recovered.
On the whole, the market outlook is judged to be a structural market with "valuation tops on the top and profit bottoms on the bottom". The "valuation tops" come from the pressure of overseas liquidity crunch, weakening demand, and the high uncertainty of domestic recovery, and the "profit bottom" Judgment from the continuous repair of high-frequency economic data and the low point of the second-quarter profit cycle.
In the second half of the year, under the steady growth and wide credit transmission, the profit is expected to recover marginally, and the prosperity can be used as a clue to actively grasp the current structure and market conditions.
As far as the valuation of the A-share market is concerned, Li Zhan concluded that the market has been repaired by the rebound, and it is currently in a middle position as a whole.
Since the market started a rebound on April 26, the valuations of the major indices have been substantially repaired.
The valuation of the four major styles is quite different. Except for consumption, the valuation of other styles is obviously still low.
Among them, after the recent rebound and repair, the valuation quantile of consumption style has reached a high of 90% of the historical quantile value, which is the highest historical valuation quantile among the four styles, and is basically at a high level compared with its own history. ; After the recent restoration of the growth style, it is still only in the 44% position of the historical quantile, which is in the middle and low position of its own history.
Therefore, Li Zhan said, to sum up, the biggest support for A-shares in the second half of the year comes from the gradual rise of corporate profits with the bottom of growth.
The biggest constraint comes from the adjustment of US stocks triggered by concerns about a US economic recession, which in turn curbs the risk appetite of A-shares.
The internal support is slightly stronger than the external disturbance, which pushes the market to fluctuate upwards.
Stable growth value targets
and fully adjusted growth targets are optimistic
On the whole, the growth sector is still the focus of public offerings, and new energy, military industries and other high-prosperity tracks are promising.
Li Dehui, senior fund manager of Shanghai Investment Morgan Fund, said that the current domestic liquidity is relatively loose, and the entire market is in a rebound trend.
The future can be viewed from two assumptions. One is that if the economy recovers as scheduled, the market will be more balanced, and industries such as consumption and finance will also perform. dominate.
But in either case, it is unlikely that the market will dip again and return to a low point.
Chen Guo of China Securities Investment Securities also pointed out that in the second half of the year, the market is expected to be dominated by a volatile structural market, and the growth style will be more dominant.
From an industry perspective, Li Dehui is optimistic about new energy, semiconductors, military industry, high-end consumption and finance.
In addition, the high oil price combined with the purchase tax reduction and exemption policy has promoted the increase in the sales of new energy vehicles, and the rebranding of enterprises or the development of new technologies may bring greater opportunities.
Zhao Longlong, the fund manager of Shanghai Investment Morgan, added that based on the current time point, in terms of the new energy industry chain, he will pay attention to the new opportunities derived from batteries, materials and new technologies with a good competitive landscape, be optimistic about the direction of automobile intelligence, and actively pay attention to existing technologies. and cost advantage.
Li Huiyong, managing director and chief economist of Huabao Fund, believes that the current CSI 300 stock-bond yield ratio is at the 81% level in the past decade.
Valuations of major broad-based indices fell to around the historical 30%-65% quantile.
With a combination of weak recovery + strong policy + low valuation level, the overall A-share market in the second half of the year can be optimistic.
Historically, growth stocks have performed better in this environment, and the logic of cost improvement is also superimposed on high prosperity manufacturing.
The recovery of the economy is also expected to promote the post-real estate cycle and the rebound of big finance, which can also be paid attention to.
Chen Xianshun, chief equity strategist of Bosera Fund, is optimistic about growth stocks and cyclical stocks.
In terms of industry configuration, he focuses on wind power, photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, traditional automobiles and parts, as well as resource products represented by petrochemicals and coal.
He believes that the common feature of these industries is that the certainty and prosperity of earnings in the second half of the year are relatively high, and after the adjustment in the first half of the year, the valuation is in a relatively reasonable position.
In terms of specific investment directions, CCB Fund believes that there are three main lines worthy of attention.
The first is the "macro main line", including midstream manufacturing and durable goods consumption with relatively high prosperity and ease of cost pressure, such as automobiles, power equipment, and high-end equipment, as well as consumer staples that benefit from price increases such as food and beverages and agriculture.
The second is the "main line of reversal of difficulties", including offline travel such as catering tourism, tax exemption, medical beauty, medical services, as well as home appliances, furniture, consumer building materials and other real estate post-cycle industrial chains are organically available.
The third is the "main line of the industry". "New energy + new infrastructure + digitalization" is a track with strong certainty in the medium term, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the problem of transaction congestion.
Invesco Great Wall Fund said that in terms of specific industry allocation, the technology industry focuses on high growth rates.
Objectively speaking, for the technology sector that needs globalization, the external environment this year will have certain pressures, such as tightening of overseas currencies, peaking of the economy, weakening of the global semiconductor cycle, and weak demand for consumer electronics.
CCB Fund expects that the market will return to volatility in the follow-up, and the unilateral bear market is unlikely, and it will still focus on structural opportunities for the time being.
It is recommended to balance the layout of stable growth value targets and fully adjust growth targets with a high degree of prosperity.
Continue to maintain a "not too optimistic, not too pessimistic" attitude towards the market, and pay due attention to the following areas: new infrastructure, old infrastructure, new energy industry chain, and semiconductors.
In addition, the themes of mandatory consumption and high-end, sub-high-end liquor, medicine, and state-owned enterprise reform are also worthy of attention.