How does China "build first and then break" to keep the bottom line of energy security?

(Economic Watch) How does China "build first and then break" to keep the bottom line of energy security?

　　China News Service, Beijing, July 8 (Reporter Wang Enbo) Under the three factors of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the new crown epidemic and climate change, the recent high fluctuations in global energy prices, how to maintain the bottom line of energy security has become the focus of all parties.

A number of experts gave the answer on the "Energy China" of the China News Agency Forum on the 8th: first establish and then break, and improve energy independence.

　　Wu Yin, an academic consultant of the China Energy Research Association and former deputy director of the National Energy Administration of China, said that in the second half of last year, China saw a rise in coal prices; since this year, global energy prices have skyrocketed, and natural gas prices have skyrocketed several times in some regions.

In addition to being affected by factors such as the epidemic and the damage to the industrial chain, the two have a common feature, that is, they have taken the path of "break first and then establish" subjectively or objectively.

　　In the face of the energy transition task and energy security challenges under the background of "dual carbon", since the end of last year, Chinese officials have made it clear that based on their own basic national conditions of coal-based, the "establish first and then break" will be promoted in an orderly manner.

　　According to Zou Ji, CEO of the Energy Foundation and President of China, this means handling the relationship between stock and increment.

He pointed out that coal is still the "ballast stone" of China's energy, and the current development not only depends on coal, but also gradually decarbonizes, which is an important test of China's wisdom.

　　On the one hand, it is necessary to go all out to preserve the quantity, and step by step to stabilize the coal mining volume, coal power plants and thermal power generation in an all-round way from policy, finance, transportation, warehousing, etc., and cannot be shaken; , and should also use non-fossil energy as much as possible to ensure energy and power generation increments.

　　Zou Ji said that on this basis, after entering the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, China can further expand the increment of non-fossil energy and gradually replace the existing coal energy stock.

"This step must be very clear and very clear, so that the foundation will not be shaken, so that it can be established first and then broken."

　　Yuan Jiahai, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of North China Electric Power University, pointed out that in the short term, the high-quality development and transformation of coal power is the key to the smooth and orderly promotion of the new power system: to meet the demand for incremental electricity, ensure the rigid growth of the maximum load, and provide a leap in renewable energy. The flexible adjustment capability of the system required for the development of the power system can provide a "bottom" guarantee for the safe supply of the power system.

　　In the face of an increasingly complex international environment, improving energy independence as much as possible without asking for help has become another important support for maintaining the bottom line of security.

How does a "coal-rich, oil-poor, and gas-poor" China do this?

　　Yan Bingzhong, chief planner of the Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design Institute, pointed out that in terms of China's current energy resource conditions, energy independence requires the development of renewable resources.

Energy is the most important source of carbon emissions and the main battlefield to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Renewable energy is the vanguard of green and low-carbon development of energy, and will also be the main force for future development.

　　China's huge potential in this regard is fascinating.

According to the data provided by Wu Yin, it is estimated that solar power generation equipment is installed on 20% of the roof area and 2% of the Gobi and desert areas. The available solar energy in China is about 2.2 billion kilowatts.

In addition, China's hydropower resource technology developable installed capacity, onshore wind energy technology development capacity, etc. are quite considerable.

　　Yan Bingzhong believes that the "14th Five-Year Plan" is the key five years for China to promote the high-quality development of renewable energy.

It is expected that China's renewable energy will enter a stage of large-scale, high-proportion, and marketization, further leading the mainstream direction of the energy production and consumption revolution, playing a leading role in the clean and low-carbon transformation of energy, and providing energy for the realization of the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality". main support.

　　Qin Haiyan, vice chairman of the World Wind Energy Association and secretary general of the Wind Energy Professional Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, said that China is the world's largest photovoltaic manufacturing country and a major wind power manufacturing country. As the world's second largest economy and global manufacturing center, China's wind power, The sustainable, healthy and rapid development of renewable energy industries such as photovoltaic power generation will become an important support for the global response to climate change, the promotion of global energy transformation, and the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system.

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