China News Service, July 9th:

"Second Senior Brothers" exerted their efforts, and the year-on-year CPI growth in June may expand

  Xie Yiguan, a reporter from China-Singapore Finance and Economics

  On July 9, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. Under the factors such as the recent rapid rise in pork prices, many institutions predict that the year-on-year increase in the CPI in June may expand.

June CPI year-on-year increase or expansion

  In May, the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation improved, and the supply of the consumer market was generally sufficient, and the CPI remained stable year-on-year.

CPI rise and fall chart.

from the National Bureau of Statistics

  What will happen to the year-on-year CPI in June?

According to the statistics of Flush iFinD, the average forecast of 16 institutions for the year-on-year increase of CPI in June is 2.43%.

If the above average forecasts are fulfilled, the year-on-year CPI growth in June will expand.

  According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in June, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 21.57 yuan/kg, an increase of 4.3% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 8%; the average wholesale price of vegetables was 3.3 yuan/kg, a month-on-month decrease of 13.1%, an increase of 1.9% year-on-year. %.

  CITIC Securities said that the average price of pork in June rose month-on-month, and considering the price level of the same period last year, it is expected that the drag of pork prices on the CPI in June may be further reduced.

  "Considering that my country's epidemic situation has improved in June, the resumption of work and production has steadily progressed, and offline and contact-type consumer demand has increased significantly." CITIC Securities predicts that the CPI may show a moderate upward trend in June.

  Industrial Securities believes that as the production capacity of live pigs continues to decrease, the price of pigs bottoms out and the pig cycle starts an upward cycle.

In addition, the strong increase in crude oil prices in May led to a month-on-month increase in gasoline prices in June.

But June is the season when a large number of vegetables and fruits are on the market, and the prices of vegetables and fruits fall seasonally.

From the comprehensive base, it is expected that the CPI in June will record 2.4% year-on-year.

Will my country face inflationary pressures in the future?

  In a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing, a reporter from Zhongxin Finance noticed that on June 24, the price of the front and rear tips was still 14.8 yuan per catty, and the price of pork belly was 18.8 yuan per catty.

A week later (July 1), the price of the front tip and rear tip has risen to 16.8 yuan per catty, and the price of pork belly has risen to 20.8 yuan per catty.

Data map: Chongming, Shanghai, residents buy pork at the Miaozhen market.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Tian Yuhao

  The price of live pigs has risen rapidly, and relevant departments have also intensively "shot".

On July 4th and 5th, the National Development and Reform Commission made three announcements to deploy the work of ensuring supply and price stability in the live pig market.

  According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of 14:00 on July 8, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 28.98 yuan/kg, down 0.4% from the 7th.

  Pork prices are one of the important factors affecting the monthly CPI.

Zheng Houcheng, a macro researcher at Yingda Securities, believes that looking forward from June to October, the probability of the phenomenon of "lard resonance" is low.

In terms of year-on-year pork CPI, in the context of the unilateral decline in the average wholesale price of pork from June to October 2021, it is expected that pork CPI from June to October 2022 will increase steadily year-on-year.

  In May, the CPI in the United States and the United Kingdom rose by 8.6% and 9.1% year-on-year, respectively, hitting a new high in the past 40 years; the CPI in the euro area rose by 8.1% year-on-year, setting a new record high; the CPI in many emerging economies rose by more than 10%, and in a few countries even more than 50%.

  Will my country face inflationary pressures in the future?

Meng Wei, a spokesperson for the National Development and Reform Commission, previously stated that looking forward to the latter part of this year, my country's grain, oil, meat, eggs, milk, fruits and vegetables and other important livelihood commodities will be stable in production and in sufficient supply. The logistics congestion points in various regions have been effectively channeled, the cross-regional transportation capacity has been significantly enhanced, and there is a solid foundation for stabilizing consumer prices. The domestic CPI will continue to operate within a reasonable range, and the expected target of about 3% for the year can be achieved.

(Finish)