Trainee reporter Qin Yanling
Since mid-June, the price of pigs has risen almost every day. On July 6, the price of ternary live pigs has nearly doubled from the low point in March. The pig breeding industry, which has been in the doldrums for almost a year, seems to have an upward turn.
In the last round of the pig cycle, "Second Senior Brother" climbed to the "pig peak" under the blessing of African swine fever, and consumers still remember it fresh. Will this pig price rise make a comeback again?
The "cobweb theory" in economics explains the supply and demand of agricultural products, that is, the current market price is determined by the current demand, and the current supply is determined by the previous market price.
As a typical agricultural product, the changes in supply and demand and price trends of live pigs conform to the interpretation of the "cobweb theory", which is also the theoretical basis for the generation of pig cycles.
The relative stability of the Chinese people's dietary structure determines that the demand is basically constant, so the analysis of the trend of pig prices mainly depends on the changes in supply.
Relevant data shows that the current effect of reducing production capacity of live pigs is obvious, but it has not bottomed out.
According to the China Breeding Pig Information Network, as of the end of May, the number of fertile sows in the country reached 41.92 million, a decrease of 8.15% from the peak level of 45.64 million in June 2021, and a slight increase of 0.4% from the April data.
The supply is still sufficient and the consumption is not strong. It should be said that the price of live pigs does not have the basis for a long-term continuous increase.
The price of live pigs has always been an important disturbance factor in macro-control policies. Flattening the pig cycle has also become an important consideration in macro policies. The production capacity and water storage function brought about by large-scale farming make this policy orientation realistic and feasible.
In recent years, my country has implemented a large-scale breeding strategy, encouraged farms to expand production capacity, and encouraged the concentration of production capacity in leading enterprises. In 2025, the scale rate of pig industry breeding to reach more than 65% has been written into official documents. The fundamental purpose is also to take advantage of scale effects. To ensure the stability of production capacity, so as to maintain the long-term health and stability of the market and industry.
Since the price rise lacks fundamental support, the recent abnormal situation needs to be fully paid attention to and interventions are made according to the situation.
This week, the National Development and Reform Commission has intensively cut out the "three axes" to ensure the smooth operation of the live pig market-organizing industry associations, some breeding enterprises and slaughtering enterprises to hold meetings, reminding enterprises not to hoard, drive up prices, and collude to increase prices; study and put pork reserves to prevent Pig prices rose too fast; cooperated with Dalian Commodity Exchange to strengthen the supervision of the spot futures market and timely check for abnormal transactions.
These measures are to use the "visible hand" to ensure the normal order of the market, so that the "invisible hand" can play a better role.
The price hype fuels the rise and the fall, and the harm to the industry cannot be avoided.
Whether it is the urgent price increase caused by the long-term loss of the company, or the price increase information fabricated and distributed by some media, it directly intensifies the reluctance to sell on the eve of the reversal of the pig cycle, and eventually leads to blind slaughtering, secondary fattening and other disruptive actions.
After the short-term pressure, what will be waiting for the industry?
It is very likely that in the later stage, the slaughter will be concentrated, the price of pigs will fall rapidly again, and the normal production and operation of enterprises will be hindered, which will ultimately affect the long-term healthy development.Keywords: