[Explanation] In 2022, the price of live pig futures and spot prices will rise all the way after hitting new lows, especially in late June, the rise will accelerate.

For this reason, the reporter walked into the pig breeding area and the futures trading market to understand the current pig period and spot situation on the spot.

  [Explanation] According to the data monitoring of Wande, the national average spot price of live pigs hit a low price of 11.92 yuan/kg on March 19, and then rose all the way.

On July 1, the latest spot price of live pigs reached 20.13 yuan/kg, up 68.88%.

The reporter interviewed farmers in Dalian and learned that around the Dragon Boat Festival, a batch of live pigs were sold in the local area, with an average price of about 10 yuan/kg, resulting in a sharp drop in the current live pig inventory.

  [Concurrent] Wang Wenzhi, a pig farmer in Dalian

  Before the (Dragon Boat Festival), all the things that should be sold were sold, and the rest were not sold, so he was not in a hurry. Now you want to ask him to sell him for an equivalent price, that is, to wait for the price.

At least a large meal (for a long time) is raised, and you will lose money if you sell it.

Let it grow and it will grow, watch it now, and press it.

(When are you going to sell it?) I'm going to make it up to ten yuan (per catty).

Just a little bit, I'm not going to be in a hurry now.

  [Explanation] Wu Qingqi, general manager of Dalian Tianqi Xinyuan Livestock Farm, is also reluctant to sell.

He told reporters that at present, the production capacity reduction of live pigs is coming to an end, and the stock of breeding sows is in a reasonable area.

Regarding the future trend of pig prices, pig farmers generally believe that the current supply and demand of live pigs are balanced, and the price of pigs is also within a reasonable range.

  [Concurrent] Wu Qingqi, General Manager of Dalian Tianqi Xinyuan Animal Farm

  (Now) there is still a relatively small number of pigs in stock. Last year, the sales of sows in large groups were (less), and all retail investors withdrew, and there were few pigs.

In the new round, the price of pigs will be quite stable. The current price, based on the current cost, should be the best and relatively stable, and then the profit will be around 200.

  [Explanation] The spot of live pigs has strengthened strongly, and the futures of live pigs have also risen strongly.

Data from the Dalian Commodity Exchange shows that the main 2209 contract has risen since the low price of 16,080 yuan/ton on March 17, and the closing price on July 1 was 21,380 yuan/ton, an increase of 32.96%.

Futures data reflects market expectations for higher pig prices.

However, industry insiders believe that the rise and fall of pig prices will still be dominated by market consumption.

  [Concurrent] Wang Na, Director of Agricultural Products Research, Everbright Futures

  For the future, we need to focus on it. The first is an adjustment expectation for breeding sows, and the second is to pay attention to the situation of the entire downstream consumption.

Because of a stage of the opening of the pig cycle, the entire price will also experience periodic declines and adjustments, especially after the Spring Festival, the entire pig price will weaken seasonally.

Therefore, in the futures market, everyone can use the forward contracts of live pigs, such as the January contract and the May contract, to perform price hedging. planning.

  Reporter Yu Ruizhai reported from Dalian, Liaoning

Responsible editor: [Luo Pan]

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