With the loosening of the policy of over 100 cities, can the property market bottom out and stabilize?
In the first half of the year, various regions issued more than 460 real estate easing policies, especially high-frequency adjustments from May to June.
Hangzhou ushered in the first red market this year, and Suzhou's thousand-person lottery reappeared... Stimulated by the loose real estate policy, individual real estate in individual cities began to heat up.
On the other hand, weak second-tier cities and third- and fourth-tier cities, the property market is still in a downward range.
Since May, the property market "relaxation tide" has been going on for two months. What is the effect?
According to CRIC's statistics, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 key cities increased by 31% month-on-month, and the monthly and cumulative year-on-year declines in transactions continued to narrow. Some second-tier cities such as Suzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing, etc. ushered in a rotational recovery.
However, the overall transactions in Fuzhou, Dalian, Nanning, Kunming, etc. are still hovering at a low level.
"The market has bottomed out at present, which means that it will not continue to deteriorate." Jia Kang, the founding director of the Huaxia New Supply Economics Research Institute and the former director of the Institute of Fiscal Science of the Ministry of Finance, told the Beijing News reporter, as to when it will pick up. , In fact, the current Chinese market is clearly differentiated, and many places are still "difficult", while some places will pick up faster.
Continuous decline and weak recovery
In the first half of this year, real estate ushered in the most intensive wave of loosening.
Statistics from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Institute show that in the first half of this year, local real estate easing policies were issued more than 460 times, while only 286 times in the first half of 2021, a year-on-year increase of 61%. In May and June, more than 100 cities issued policies to stabilize the property market. .
"The number of unbundled cities has set a new record." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, commented that the level of unbundled cities is getting higher and higher, from the third and fourth tier cities in the first quarter, to the second-tier cities gradually become unbundled cities from April to June The main force, including Hangzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing, Xiamen, Chengdu, Wuhan and other hot cities also joined the ranks of stabilizing the property market and saving the property market.
Among them, in the past two months, more than 25 second-tier cities have issued more than 80 policies to stabilize the property market, becoming the main force in property market regulation.
In addition to loosening restrictions on purchases and sales, lowering the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rates, the control measures also include increasing the amount of provident fund loans, increasing the number of houses purchased by families with multiple children, issuing house purchase subsidies, implementing "room ticket" resettlement, and helping one person buy a house and help the whole family, etc.
The various means of loosening have only one purpose, which is to release the demand for housing purchases and help the property market get out of the downward trend.
So, after two months of high-frequency adjustments, what is the effect of this comprehensive loosening trend, mainly in second-, third-, and fourth-tier cities?
Has the housing market downtrend reversed?
Has the transaction warmed up?
Data from 30 key cities (4 first-tier cities, 26 second- and third-tier cities and other cities) according to CRIC’s statistics show that in June, the transaction area of commercial housing in 4 first-tier cities was 2.93 million square meters, an increase of 85% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 85%. down 17%.
Affected by the favorable policies of local governments, 26 second- and third-tier cities and other cities have recovered steadily, with transaction volumes increasing by 24% month-on-month and down 41% year-on-year.
It can be seen that the policy of going north to Shenzhen has hardly been loosened, but the transaction volume is at the forefront.
Although the key second- and third-tier cities have loosened their ties to varying degrees and transactions have rebounded, they are still in a downward trend overall.
Strong second-tier recovery and urban differentiation
Recently, a news that economist Ren Zeping bought a house in Suzhou lottery has been widely circulated in the market. Although the news has not been confirmed by him, it has attracted the attention of Suzhou thousand people lottery lottery.
It is understood that Yihe Linglong Garden, located in the Hudong section of Suzhou Industrial Park, has launched 161 houses for external sales. A total of 1867 groups of customers participated in the lottery, of which the winning rate of non-talented houses was as low as 4.3%.
At a time when the overall national property market is still in the doldrums, the hot property market in Suzhou has reappeared in thousands of people's lottery. This is not only behind the inversion of first- and second-hand housing prices, but also the relaxation of restrictions on purchases and sales in Suzhou, the increase in provident fund loan quotas, and the lowest mortgage interest rates in the country, etc. The property market recovers under the superposition of easing policies.
A Suzhou real estate agent told reporters that his company's new house transaction volume in the 12 days after "June 18" was the same as that in May. Among them, Gusu District recovered faster, mainly because there were many high-quality school district houses.
Jin Ke, an analyst at the Suzhou Branch of the China Index Research Institute, said that currently, driven by policies, the new housing market in Suzhou is showing signs of recovery, and the confidence of home buyers is gradually recovering. beneficial projects.
In addition to Suzhou, the popular city of Hangzhou also ushered in the first "red plate" this year, with more than 4,000 groups registered, and the winning rate was as low as 5.4%.
It is understood that Hangzhou launched a new policy in mid-May at the key node of the national property market loosening, including relaxing purchase restrictions, reducing the value-added tax exemption period, and increasing the number of houses purchased by three-child families, which means a new round of national property market regulation and upgrading.
However, compared with the recovery of hotspot cities, second-tier cities such as Fuzhou and Dalian, as well as third- and fourth-tier cities represented by Quzhou, Haikou, etc., have also issued loosening policies, but the overall market performance is flat, and the downward trend is still obvious.
CRIC statistics show that in June, the transaction area of commercial housing in Suzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Zhengzhou and other cities increased by 31%, 24%, 36%, and 65% month-on-month, and decreased by 27%, 57%, and 26% year-on-year, respectively. ,
34%; the transaction area of commercial housing in Hefei, Kunming, Dalian, Fuzhou and other cities decreased by 15%, 16%, 22%, and 24% month-on-month, and 22%, 44%, 53%, and 72% year-on-year.
The Shell Research Institute believes that in terms of the pace and intensity of market recovery, strong second-tier cities are leading.
After the relaxation of regulation in strong second-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Chengdu, Nanjing, and Suzhou, second-hand housing transactions increased significantly, and the policy effect was also strong.
However, in general, despite the marginal recovery in the second-hand housing market in May and June, the current market transaction volume is still at a low level.
A real estate agent from Dalian said that the number of second-hand housing rentals has increased compared with that before the policy was loosened, two or three times a week, but not once before.
On the whole, this round of vigorous and vigorous national property market loosening tide shows obvious differentiation characteristics in different regions, different cities, different sectors and different real estates.
Can the property market stabilize in the second half of the year?
Regarding the current situation of the property market, on June 28, Yu Liang, chairman of the board of directors of Vanke, said at the 2021 annual general meeting that "the short-term market has bottomed out", which aroused heated discussions, and related entries were listed on Weibo's hot search list. Amount of over a million.
The capital market was even more moved by the wind. The stock market opened the next day, and real estate stocks collectively rose against the trend.
Some netizens commented, "In the short term, the expression is very accurate", but there are also many different voices, "Where is this, it's still early to hit the bottom", "I don't have the money to buy it anyway", "It must rebound when it hits the bottom? Yes? No possibility of repeated friction?"
The weak recovery in some cities cannot hide the reality that the overall real estate market is still at the bottom. Especially under the influence of multiple factors such as the impact of the epidemic, the lack of significant improvement in the macroeconomic level, and the suspension of real estate projects, the expectations of home buyers are still pessimistic.
Lian Ping, chief economist and dean of the Research Institute of Zhixin Investment, and chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum, said that the effect of policy easing is gradually emerging. Recently, we have seen some downward trends in data have contracted and slowed down, but many year-on-year Data is still going down.
It still takes time for the policy effect to appear, and it also requires the cooperation of other aspects, such as the improvement of the overall situation of the macroeconomic operation, the recovery of consumption, and the improvement of future economic expectations.
How long will the flat after bottoming last?
When will the property market start to stabilize?
Yu Liang said that the market recovery is a slow and gentle process, and recovery still takes time.
Lian Ping's judgment is that the property market may continue to decline in the third quarter of this year. The real stabilization may be in the middle and late third quarter, and there will be a certain degree of rebound in the fourth quarter. Next year, the real estate market may end the current short-cycle downward trend and gradually form. A new upward cycle; given the further slowdown in demand growth, the growth rate of real estate investment will take another step in the future.
The China Index Research Institute predicts that in the second half of this year, the national market will gradually enter the channel of stabilization and recovery, but the pace of market recovery still depends on the recovery pace of the macro economy, the effect of epidemic prevention and control, and policy optimization; hot cities are expected to continue to pick up in the third quarter. The sales area of commercial housing fell by more than 10% year-on-year.
Beijing News reporter Duan Wenping
■ Investigation
40% of netizens plan to buy a house this year, but the confidence in buying a house is still insufficient
The expectations of the real estate market, especially the expectations of home buyers, are very important and directly affect the behavior of buying houses now and in the future.
Under this round of unbundling, has the psychology of home buyers changed?
Does the loosening of the policy affect their purchase of houses?
Recently, the Beijing News and the Shell Research Institute jointly launched a survey on the willingness to buy a house. The results of the questionnaire survey of about 2,000 samples in first-tier, new first-tier, second- and third-tier cities and other cities showed that 42% of people have plans to buy a house this year. 58% of the people who plan to buy a house and wait and see.
A recent survey by the central bank also showed that "buying a house" ranked fifth among the seven options when asked about the items that will increase spending in the next three months.
On the whole, home buyers still lack confidence in the expectations of the real estate market.
Meng Xiangyuan, vice president of the Nanjing Real Estate Society, believes that for real estate, "confidence is more important than gold", so it is still very important to repair confidence.
Second- and third-tier cities have lower confidence in home purchases than first-tier cities
"Will house prices fall?" "Will interest rates fall?" "Will house prices rise?" Liu Yi (pseudonym), who lives in a third-tier city, often throws such questions to a friend who knows real estate.
For Liu Yi, who has plans to buy a house, although she has continued to pay attention to the loosening of policies and the property market in the first half of the year, she has not made a move until today.
"The overall market is not very good. I feel that there is still room for interest rates to fall. I am not in a hurry." Liu Yiru said.
Under the tide of loosening property market policies, there are many people like Liu Yi who are hesitant and on the sidelines.
According to the results of the questionnaire, in the question of "whether there are plans to buy a house this year", 42% of people have plans to buy a house, 21% have no plans to buy a house, and 37% are on the sidelines.
In terms of breakdown, the wait-and-see sentiment of buyers in second- and third-tier cities is higher than that in first-tier cities. Among them, first-tier cities account for 33% of buyers, 42% in new first-tier cities, and 39% and 36% in second-tier cities and third-tier cities and other cities, respectively.
It is worth noting that in the third-tier and other cities, 76% of the people who have no plans to buy a house and those who wait and see together account for 76%.
What are the reasons for a home buyer to buy a home?
The results of the questionnaire show that the reasons for just needing to buy a house, the continuous easing of property market policies, and the decline in housing prices rank high.
What other easing policies will make home buyers excited?
According to the results of the questionnaire, 27.17% of the votes voted for "lower mortgage interest rate", 22.23% of the votes for "lower down payment", and 17.96% and 17.26% of the votes for various preferential promotion policies and increase in provident fund loan amount were respectively .
And what factors will affect the buyer's home buying plan?
According to the questionnaire, "the house price is too high to buy" ranked first, accounting for 31.13%, and "because of the impact of the epidemic, worry about the unstable income affecting the plan to buy a house" accounted for 22.32%.
In addition, there are frequent problems with developers' funds, and some respondents in the questionnaire are also worried that the house will be suspended and the house will not be handed over.
In general, for the first-tier cities with higher energy levels, the demand for housing still exists.
However, overall, buyers are still pessimistic about the real estate market expectations.
More than that, recently, the central bank released the "2022 Second Quarter Urban Depositors Questionnaire Survey Report", which conducted a questionnaire survey of 20,000 urban depositors in 50 cities across the country.
The results show that 16.2% of the residents expect the housing prices in the next quarter to "rise", 54.6% of the residents expect to be "basically unchanged", 16.0% of the residents expect to "fall", and 13.2% of the residents are "unsure".
Meng Xiangyuan said that the current residents' confidence in rising house prices is still insufficient, and nearly 30% are bearish or uncertain.
In addition, when asked about the items that residents plan to increase spending on in the next three months, the proportion of residents' choices in descending order is: education (28.1%), health care (27.4%), large-scale goods (18.7%), social culture and entertainment (18.1%), buying a house (16.9%), traveling (15.2%), insurance (13.9%).
The “home purchase” option ranked fifth, down one place from the second quarter.
Gradually build market confidence by exchanging time for space
As for the reasons for the lack of confidence in home buyers, Xia Lei, chief economist of Guohai Securities, analyzed that four major factors affect residents' confidence in home purchases.
First, off-plan housing is unfinished, and the housing crisis has weakened buyers' confidence in off-plan housing and increased their wait-and-see mood.
Second, income is declining, the economic and employment situation is not optimistic, and residents’ precautionary savings are increasing, and they are worried about the problem of supply cuts. The decision to buy a house is more cautious than before.
The third is the epidemic situation, which affects home buyers' viewing, selection, and offline signing.
The fourth is the rise in house prices. Residents buy up and not down. When house price increases slow down, buyers choose to wait and see.
According to Jia Kang, the founding director of the China Academy of New Supply Economics and the former director of the Institute of Fiscal Science of the Ministry of Finance, the pessimism will take a period of time to be hedged. Before the rise, a small number of people who just need it or have the ability to pay for wealth will make a move. When the enthusiasm starts, they will make a move together. The previous rounds of market cycles have shown a herd effect of buying up and not buying down. However, from the whole country From the point of view, there is no unified critical point, and different cities and different scenarios need to be analyzed in detail.”
So, what other control measures are available to enhance the confidence of home buyers?
In the eyes of industry insiders, some cities still have stricter real estate policies, and there is room for further relaxation. For example, some cities still implement "recognizing houses and subscribing loans", and the down payment ratio for second homes is relatively high, which affects some people who improve.
In addition, in terms of credit, although the central bank lowered the lower limit of the 5-year LPR, many urban banks still generally rise in the implementation of mortgage interest rates.
According to the analysis of CRERUI Research Report, in addition to policy "help", it is mainly relying on the warming of core cities and the recovery of the real economy, using time for space, gradually building market confidence, and restoring the virtuous circle of the property market itself.