Original title: [Top Ten Brokers' Weekly Strategy] Move to Big Spending!
A shares are still available, core assets and growth stocks will be the winners in the next stage
CITIC Securities: The market structure will be more balanced in July, and the three major sectors of consumption, growth and manufacturing, and medicine will be revalued in rotation
In July, A-shares were in the second stage of the current round of the market. The combined efforts of policies to push up fundamental expectations are expected to drive valuation repairs. With the superposition of interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States and the differentiation of interim report performance, the market volatility is expected to increase in July. The rhythm has slowed down, and the three major sectors have been reassessed in rotation. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation in consumption, growth manufacturing and medicine.
First of all, the combination of policies drives the rapid improvement of the domestic economy month by month. The social financing data in June is expected to exceed expectations. The epidemic prevention and control and economic development are more coordinated. There is still room for strengthening the policy of stabilizing growth. The slow bull market is in a period of valuation repair.
Secondly, under the disturbance of factors such as the superposition of interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States, the differentiation of interim reports, and the peak of the lifting of the ban on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, it is expected that the market volatility will increase in July and the pace will slow down.
Finally, as public funds continue to adjust their positions, private equity and FOF products and other absolute income funds increase their positions, and the early-stage capital relay effect is weakened. It is expected that the market structure will be more balanced in July, and the three major sectors of consumption, growth and manufacturing, and medicine will be re-evaluated in rotation.
CITIC Construction Investment Securities: The interim report forecast season begins, focusing on new energy, medicine and other industries
Since the end of April, the market has been in the "sweet window period" after the "golden pit". This stage is characterized by the marginal improvement of fundamentals, the continuous improvement of liquidity in the loose and overweight financial market, and the recovery of risk appetite from extremely low levels.
For now, the fundamental repair is still going on, there is still room for growth stabilization policies, and the market may still have upward inertia in the short term.
However, looking forward to the future, we also need to pay attention that the "sweet window period" is often an unconventional stage and will not last for a long time. In the follow-up, we need to pay attention to whether the subsequent recovery of pit filling has slowed down and the marginal changes in the liquidity of the financial market. From a structural point of view, the interim report The forecast season has begun, because the performance of the interim report has been strongly differentiated, and the market performance will further focus on the high-growth or beyond-expected products in the interim report, and the market will shift from beta to alpha.
Focus on industries: new energy, medicine, chemical industry, food and beverage, etc.
Guotai Junan Securities: A shares are still in the future, core assets and growth stocks will be the winners in the next stage
The risk of a hard landing has declined, economic expectations have improved, risk-free interest rates have fallen, and risk appetite has rebounded. The key now is no longer to avoid risks, but to seek returns and assets.
Incremental policies are expected to continue to be introduced in July, and the fundamental data will continue to be verified. Economic expectations have been revised upward. In addition, investors' concerns about risks have dropped significantly, and A-shares are still in the future.
Core assets and growth stocks will become winners and losers in the next stage, and need to start paying attention and layout.
The current trend of operating dominance in the core asset sector has begun to sprout, and the expected growth rate and improvement in earnings in 2023 are significantly higher than other varieties.
From the perspective of transaction, the valuation of core assets has been highly cost-effective after one and a half years of adjustment, and the transaction structure on the chip side has also been significantly optimized, especially in key industries such as food, beverage, and medicine.
Industry and investment themes: attach importance to and deploy core assets and growth stocks.
In the next stage, two major investment themes are expected to continue to get out of excess. One is core asset stocks with expanded competitive advantages and fully adjusted stock prices under the stock economy, focusing on post-epidemic repair; the other is new energy, Digital economy, independent and controllable technology and new economic growth stocks.
Recommendations: 1) High prosperity growth: electric vehicles/photovoltaics/wind power/military industry/computer innovation/digital industry; 2) Core assets of consumer medicine: liquor/hotel/live pig/innovative medicine/CXO/Hong Kong stock internet leader; 3) Benefit cost Declining and completion cycles pick up: kitchen appliances/furniture/consumer building materials.
Optimistic about coal and real estate completion chain in the cycle.
Haitong Securities: The medium-term growth trend is good, but the short-term popularity is high, and consumption is emphasized
Since the end of April, the incremental funds of public offerings have not been obvious. From May to June, partial equity funds issued a total of 41.2 billion yuan (the average monthly issuance in the first four months was 46.7 billion yuan), and the net redemption of ETFs was 21 billion yuan.
The main incremental funds for this round of rises come from the northbound and leveraged funds, which have increased by about 100 billion and 80 billion yuan respectively since the end of April. Private equity and insurance capital positions rose slightly in May.
The low point in April was the bottom of the reversal. The fundamentals improved and the market was supported by two retreats. The mid-term growth trend was good but the short-term popularity was high. Optimize the structure and pay attention to consumption: underestimated low allocation + data gradually improved.
CICC: Light market and heavy structure, the market may still be in the rebound range as a whole
Looking ahead, we believe that the Chinese and foreign policy cycles continue to be in the opposite direction. China's policy may remain loose, inflation is relatively moderate, and valuations are not high after the recent repair. The Chinese market may remain relatively resilient relative to overseas in the second half of the year.
However, if the volatility of the global market increases in the second half of the year, the Chinese market may also be affected to some extent.
In the short term, considering that the domestic growth data will be gradually repaired in the next period of time, the funds will remain relatively loose, and the epidemic recovery expectations will gradually strengthen, the market may still be in the rebound range as a whole. And overseas market conditions to grasp the rhythm and structure.
The overall market environment may not be at the stage where it is necessary to retreat and defend, but it should be noted that after the rebound lasts for two months and some profit pressure has accumulated, the volatility may increase slightly.
In terms of allocation, it is recommended to focus on the two main lines of capital easing and epidemic recovery: on the one hand, policy easing may gradually be gradually transformed into economic recovery, and some policy-sensitive sectors related to low valuation and stable growth, including building materials, home appliances, leading real estate, etc.; On the one hand, under the anticipation of the recovery of the epidemic, we can pay attention to the fields of food and beverages, airports, catering, hotels and tourism related to offline travel and consumption recovery.
In the big cycle, stocks in the consumer sector have been in the doldrums for a long time, and some sectors may also be entering a medium-to-long-term layout period.
After the recent continuous rebound of the manufacturing growth style, the overall price-performance ratio is weakening, and subsequent fluctuations may begin to increase. According to the degree of prosperity and valuation matching, stock allocation is bottom-up.
In the medium and long term, we will focus on the two main growth lines of China's industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading.
GF Securities: The "independent market" continues, focusing on the three main lines of "recovery trading" China's advantageous assets
Under the warm wind of policy, China's advantage of "one change and another grow" drives the "independent market" of A shares to continue this week.
The biggest driving force for the current independent market is that Chinese policy makers are committed to restoring economic vitality and improving market risk appetite, while overseas stock markets continue to decline under the "recession expectation + monetary tightening".
In June, the PMIs of China and the United States continued to diverge, the US economic growth forecast was lowered, and the US bond interest rate fell sharply.
"One change, another grows, the water will come into effect" may have twists and turns, but it will not change the upward trend of shocks.
It is recommended to pay attention to the three main lines of "recovery transactions" of China's advantageous assets: (1) Post-epidemic manufacturing and consumption restoration: automobiles (including new energy vehicles)/photovoltaic modules/retail/food and beverages, etc.; (2) Adding leverage: Restrictive policies shift to marginal easing (Internet media/innovative drugs/real estate); (3) Inflation chain dominated by domestic pricing: upstream resources/materials (coal/potash fertilizer) and aquaculture.
Industrial Securities: The "new half army" has not been repaired in place, and there is still room for improvement
With the "new half army" significantly repaired, some investors are beginning to worry about whether the market is coming to an end.
However, according to our research framework, the "new semi-military" market has not ended in terms of time, and there is still room for improvement: First, in terms of time: 1) The recent rapid decline in US bond interest rates, the suppression of the "new semi-military" in the second half of the year will also will ease.
2) Analysts expect the strength of the correction, a leading indicator, to still point to an uptrend in the "new semi army".
The upward trend of the "new half army" in the mid-term has not ended, and the shock period is the layout period.
Secondly, in terms of space: from the point of view of the matching degree of increase and profit, the "new half army" has not been repaired in place.
Structurally, the short-term focus on large consumption (medicine, alcohol, white goods, food, transportation, etc.) + the "new semi-military" of the strong Hengqiang (photovoltaic modules/silicon wafers, automobiles, military new materials/structural parts, wind turbines/upstream materials, semiconductor materials/equipment, 5G fiber optic cables).
In the second half of the year, the market style is expected to gradually return to technological growth.
It is recommended to focus on six major directions of "specialized, refined and new": 1) new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation of information and communication technologies (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5G, etc. ), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, robots, advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical equipment and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.), 6) food security (seed industry, biotechnology, fertilizer, etc.).
Yuekai Securities: The market continues to fluctuate and rise, and three main lines are laid out during the performance window period
We expect that with the gradual implementation of the stabilizing growth policy, the marginal easing of external disturbances and the gradual subsidence of epidemic disturbances, the domestic economic trend will improve, and the market is expected to continue the upward trend of shocks.
The performance forecast of the recent semi-annual report has been disclosed one after another. The A-share market is about to enter the performance verification period. Investors are advised to pay attention to high-quality targets in the high-growth and low-valued sectors, and focus on three main lines.
First, pay attention to the investment opportunities in the sector that the interim report results forecast exceeds expectations.
Second, grasp the main line of policy development and focus on new energy and large consumption.
Third, pay attention to the configuration of growth styles with high prosperity.
Guohai Securities: Relatively optimistic about the value sector in July, consumption and finance are expected to achieve excess returns
We continue our optimistic judgment on the market. The domestic fundamentals are a combination of weak recovery + moderate inflation + ample liquidity, while the external environment is US bond interest rates peaking and falling + commodity prices falling, which is more favorable to the stock market. Performance and valuation Both can expand. Structurally, we are relatively optimistic about the value sector in July, and consumption and finance are expected to achieve excess returns.
In terms of configuration, focus on consumption and finance driven by the accelerating slope of economic recovery, including three main lines. First, the marginal relaxation of epidemic prevention and control policies and the convergence of the PPI-CPI scissors gap, benefiting from the core tracks of consumption recovery, such as food and beverages, pharmaceuticals and biology, etc. The second is the optional consumption sector that conforms to the post-real estate cycle and is supported and stimulated by policies, including automobiles, auto parts, home appliances, etc. The third is to pay attention to the financial dance in stages.
Food and beverage, pharmaceutical biology, and non-bank finance are the preferred industries in July.
Huaxi Securities: The risk point of market correction may be in the middle and late July
A-shares have risen rapidly to shock and differentiation, and the risk point of market correction may be in the middle and late July.
The three factors of policy, valuation and chips have resonated to drive the rebound of A-shares since April 27. Market confidence has been significantly restored, and economic recovery after the epidemic has become a market consensus.
In July, the core contradiction of A-shares was still in China. Domestic policies were "easy to loosen but difficult to tighten". The adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies and the implementation of policies to stabilize and increase growth. The domestic economy is expected to recover faster in the third quarter, and the A-share market is expected to fluctuate upwards in the medium term.
In terms of rhythm, A-shares have accumulated more profit-making stocks under the rapid rise in the early stage. With the intensive disclosure of corporate financial reports, the weight of profit will increase in stages, and A-shares will change from rapid growth to shock and differentiation. Beware of the risk point of market correction or in 7 Mid to late month.
The industry allocation in July focused on two main lines: first, emerging industries that benefited from the key support of national policies, such as "new energy industry chain, military industry", etc.; second, some consumer goods that benefited from the marginal improvement of the domestic epidemic, such as "food, beverage, medicine", etc. .
(Broker China Wang Lulu)