After losing the support of Shenzhen's source of tourists, even if Dongguan loosened the property market policy twice in a row, the market has not returned to its former prosperity.

  Data show that in May, Dongguan Xinfang.com signed 227,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 2%; second-hand housing transactions amounted to 1,460 units, a year-on-year increase of 16%.

As of May this year, the transaction volume of first- and second-hand housing in Dongguan has achieved a continuous rise in March.

  However, if this value is compared to the historical level of the same period, such transactions are still "poorly small", and have not replicated the trend of "policy loosening and house price jumping" in the past few cycles.

  At the same time, a large number of second-hand houses have been put on the market, and the long de-purchasing cycle points to a reality: investors have gradually withdrawn from the market.

Looking back 20 years, Dongguan housing prices have experienced three rounds of sharp rises, and many investors have made a lot of profits through real estate sales.

Now, when the room for rising house prices gradually narrows, the investment logic of Dongguan's property market has also quietly changed.

Fundamentals of cities with trillions of GDP

  As early as the 1990s, Dongguan, located in the heart of the Pearl River Delta, was already a giant in the manufacturing industry.

  Dongguan City is located in the southeastern part of Guangdong Province, bordering two first-tier cities, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, in the north and south, with many plain landforms.

Before the reform and opening up, the Dongguan area was dominated by agriculture and fishery, and the industry was underdeveloped. After the reform and opening up, in 1979, the country's first processing factory for imported materials, Taiping Handbag Factory, was born in Humen, Dongguan.

Riding on the east wind of reform and opening up, Dongguan developed an export-oriented economy with "three to one supplement" as the starting point, and accepted the investment of Hong Kong and Taiwan businessmen. Dongguan is also known as the "world factory".

  After years of development, Dongguan's manufacturing industry has gradually become stronger, and it is no longer the "world factory" that was only based on quantity and labor-intensive economy. Benefit-oriented and capital and technology-intensive economy have become the development direction of Dongguan.

Today, Dongguan has formed an industrial system with seven major industries as electronic information, textile and clothing and shoemaking, toy manufacturing, food and beverage processing, furniture manufacturing, papermaking, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing. Well-known enterprises such as Huawei and OPPO have successively Landed in Dongguan.

  Data show that in 2002, Dongguan’s GDP exceeded the 100 billion yuan mark for the first time, reaching 118.694 billion yuan. By 2021, Dongguan’s GDP will reach 1,085.535 billion yuan, breaking the trillion yuan mark for the first time, becoming the 15th GDP in the country. A trillion-dollar city.

In the past 20 years, the total GDP of Dongguan has increased by nearly 10 times.

  As the economy took off, Dongguan also attracted labor from all over the country, and the resident population grew accordingly.

Data shows that in 2000, the permanent population of Dongguan was 6.4484 million. At the end of 2020, the permanent population of Dongguan was 10.4667 million, an increase of 4.0183 million in 20 years.

  The growth of the population is bound to be accompanied by the growth of housing demand. Against this background, the real estate industry in Dongguan is also developing rapidly.

 Three peaks of price increases in 20 years

  Before 2002, the Dongguan property market was mainly occupied by the four major local developers - CITIC Real Estate, Hongyuan Real Estate, Everbright Real Estate, and New Century Real Estate. Since 2003, with the entry of Vanke, Gemdale, Country Garden and other foreign branded real estate companies In Dongguan, new marketing methods such as "concept marketing" and "brand marketing" have officially entered Dongguan, and the Dongguan property market has entered a new stage of development.

  From the perspective of transaction volume, because of its close proximity to Shenzhen, the hot and cold properties of the Dongguan property market are closely related to the Shenzhen property market.

In 2007, the Shenzhen property market was stagnant and the risks increased. Under the conscious guidance of developers, a large number of investment funds from Shenzhen began to flow into the Dongguan market. Dongguan Hefu data shows that in 2007, the area of ​​first-hand residential online signatures in Dongguan reached 617 Million square meters.

In 2007, the average price of new houses in Dongguan was 5,522 yuan per square meter.

  Subsequently, under the influence of the financial turmoil in 2008, the property market in Dongguan entered a trough. In 2008, the area of ​​online signatures for first-hand residential properties in Dongguan was nearly halved, reaching 3.57 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 42%.

In the following years, the contracted area of ​​first-hand residential buildings in Dongguan gradually recovered.

  In 2010, affected by the shortage of supply and the outstanding transaction of high-end residential buildings, the housing prices in Dongguan ushered in the first sharp rise in history. According to the data of the market research department of Hefuhui, Dongguan, the supply of first-hand residential buildings in Dongguan was 4.62 million square meters in 2010, and the contracted area was 4.42 million square meters, with an average of 4.42 million square meters. The price is 7,429 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%.

  In 2015, housing prices in Shenzhen next door skyrocketed, and the price gap between Dongguan and Shenzhen hit a record high. The housing price in Dongguan was only 1/3 of Shenzhen's. The huge value depression, and many good traffic in Dongguan and Shenzhen, coupled with the down payment of Dongguan's second suite dropping to 40%, made the housing prices in Dongguan and Shenzhen. Shenzhen guests once again flooded into the Dongguan property market.

According to the data from the market research department of Hefu Brilliant Dongguan, in 2015, the online signing area of ​​first-hand residential buildings in Dongguan reached 9.987 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 76%. Among them, Shenzhen customers contributed about 4-50% of the Dongguan property market.

This year, the average price of new houses in Dongguan was 9,797 yuan per square meter.

  In 2016, the price difference between Dongguan and Shenzhen continued to increase, and the property market in Dongguan continued to be hot in 2015. The contracted area remained above 9 million square meters. At the same time, the housing price in Dongguan ushered in the highest increase in history.

Data from Dongguan Hefu shows that before 2015, housing prices in Dongguan rose slowly, and the rate of increase was basically within 10%. In 2016, housing prices in Dongguan rose from 9,797 yuan per square meter in 2015 to 13,761 yuan per square meter, an increase of 40%, a record. Highest.

  However, what followed was a tightening of property market policies.

In October 2016, the property market policy in major cities across the country was significantly tightened, and Dongguan also launched the "restriction of purchases" for the first time, and the market situation turned sharply. From 2017 to 2019, the annual transaction area of ​​first-hand residential buildings in Dongguan dropped to more than 5 million square meters.

  Until April after the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, stimulated by loose money, the transaction volume of Dongguan's property market picked up again, and house prices ushered in the third round of sharp rises.

Data shows that in 2020, the contracted area of ​​newly built commercial housing in Dongguan is 7.42 million square meters, a new high in four years.

The supply of new houses in Dongguan is in short supply, and the price has also risen sharply to 24,227 yuan per square meter, an increase of 20%.

  In 2021, under the guidance of the general tone of "homeowners do not speculate", the national property market regulation policy will be tightened, and the Dongguan property market has also increased its purchase limit and down payment many times. In 2021, the transaction area of ​​newly built commercial housing in Dongguan will drop to 5.05 million square.

Changes in investment logic

  The Dongguan property market has developed for more than 20 years, and the annual transaction volume varies. The only constant is the rise in housing prices. After more than 20 years of development, the housing prices in Dongguan have risen to 27,000 yuan per square meter in 2021.

During this period, there were not a few people who profited from the purchase of property.

  In 2015, Dongguan was not restricted to purchase. Zhang Fan (pseudonym) and relatives each bought a set of commercial housing of about 90 square meters in Shatian Town, Dongguan, with a total price of more than 800,000.

Zhang Fan told Yicai, "I bought that real estate at that time because the Shatian Station of Shenzhen Intercity Intercity was only 300 meters away from this real estate, and I was thinking about the concept of Shenzhen Intercity Intercity." Although the increase in housing prices in Shatian was not as good as that in Dongguan Songshan Lake, Humen, Chang'an, Houjie and other areas, however, in 2019, when Zhang Fan wanted to buy a house in Shenzhen and sold this house in Dongguan, the total price also increased by about 500,000, and finally ended at more than 1.3 million. The price was successfully sold.

Zhang Fan's relatives also sold the above-mentioned properties for more than 1.3 million yuan in order to replace them in Shenzhen in 2018.

  What's more magical is that Zhang Fan bought a house for investment. He said that from buying a house, closing the house to selling it, he never went in to see this suite, nor did he decorate it.

  Before that, there were not many people like Zhang Fan who bought and invested in Dongguan.

However, as the room for housing price growth has gradually bottomed out, buyers investing in the property market have begun to be cautious.

  Li Kui (pseudonym), who has been engaged in real estate sales in Dongguan for 6 years, told Yicai that there is little chance of a big rise in real estate in the future. Now people who buy houses in Dongguan are mainly just in need, and more are bought for their own living, for the purpose of investment. buyers will be more cautious.

  Recently, in a WeChat house purchase group that the reporter is in, a Dongguan owner said that he owns four Dongguan properties in his hands, one of which could be sold for 20,000 yuan per square meter when the market was good before, but now it can only be sold for 16,000 yuan/sq.m. He is considering whether to sell three sets, because in his opinion, in the long run, the properties in his hands may still have relatively small appreciation potential, but in the short term, the prices of the properties in his hands There is a high probability that it will continue to decline for several years.

De-chemical cycle rose to 41 months

  The above-mentioned concerns of Dongguan property owners are not unreasonable, because from the current data, the transaction volume of Dongguan's property market is still at a historically low level, and the second-hand housing sales cycle has risen to a high level.

  Entering 2022, the Dongguan property market continues the downturn in 2021.

Statistics from the Hefu Research Institute show that in the first quarter of 2022, 4,934 new commercial housing units were signed online in Dongguan, a record low.

As of the end of March 2022, the decommissioning cycle for newly built commercial housing in Dongguan is about 18 months, an increase of 13 months from the same period last year. Due to the slowdown in transactions, the decommissioning cycle is significantly longer.

In addition, in the first quarter, 1,957 second-hand housing units were signed on the Internet in Dongguan, a year-on-year decrease of 65%.

  At the end of April, as many cities across the country loosened property market policies, Dongguan also joined the ranks of property market policy loosening.

On April 29, Dongguan City adjusted and updated the qualifications for purchasing a house. From May 1, the policy of purchasing houses with individual tax will be restored, which recognizes both social security and individual tax.

At the same time, the recognition standard was adjusted from "monthly continuous payment" to "cumulative payment".

  Half a month later, the Dongguan property market policy was loosened again.

On May 14, Dongguan's new property market policy "Dongguan Seven Regulations" stipulates that residents who meet the national fertility policy and have two or three children can purchase a new set of commercial housing; purchase a government-recognized green building commercial housing application Housing provident fund loans can be increased by 20% in accordance with regulations; the value-added tax exemption period for personal housing transfers has been adjusted from 5 years to 2 years; commercial housing that has obtained real estate ownership certificates for 2 years can be traded and transferred.

  A series of policy combinations have undoubtedly lowered the threshold for home buyers to buy houses in Dongguan, and also accelerated the liquidity of real estate. Properties that previously took three years to sell can be listed for sale after holding for two years.

Zhang Bo, chief analyst of 58 Anju Room Real Estate Research Institute, told Yicai that the loosening of the property market policy will bring about an increase in market popularity, and at the same time, it will also lead to an increase in transaction volume.

  In May after the property market was loosened, the transaction volume of Dongguan’s property market began to grow slightly. The first-hand housing network signed 227,000 square meters, a slight increase of 2% year-on-year in 2021; %.

However, compared with the same period in 2020, the transaction area of ​​second-hand housing in Dongguan dropped by at least 52.5% and 49.3% respectively.

Compared with historical data, the transaction volume of first- and second-hand housing in Dongguan is still at a low level.

  While the sales end has not improved significantly, the number of second-hand housing listings in Dongguan has continued to grow.

Zhuge housing data show that in May, the number of second-hand housing listings in Dongguan was 58,000, up 1.5% from the previous month, and the number of listings has risen for four consecutive months.

  According to the data provided by Zhuge Fangfang, Yicai uses the formula of "inventory/average sales volume in the past 12 months" to calculate the demolition cycle. As of January 2021, the demolition cycle of second-hand housing in Dongguan is about 26 months, and as of 2021 In May of this year, about 33 months, in May 2022, the second-hand housing demolition cycle in Dongguan has been extended to 41 months.

  There is a common saying in the market: "Every time the property market loosening policy comes, it is a good time to cash out and leave the market." However, judging from the data after the current round of policy loosening, it may take some more time for the transaction volume of Dongguan's property market to rebound significantly. Over time, it has become less easy for investors to successfully sell real estate.