• Crisis The Bank of Spain already warns households of the rise in variable mortgages: "The financial burden will be greater"

The rise in interest rates is already hitting families hard and, although the process of monetary normalization has barely begun, the figures revealed by the Bank of Spain show that the situation is very complex.

According to the supervisor's estimate, the number of families that allocate more than 40% of their income to paying mortgages and credits

has skyrocketed by 172,000 households

.

Families, as defined by the body directed by Pablo Hernández de Cos, who have "a high financial burden."

But it is also that, in addition, the data of families that already found themselves in that situation of financial drowning was just over 850,000 households, according to the latest available data referring to the 2017 Family Financial Survey. Therefore, the figure The

total number of households that must allocate

more than 40% of their income to paying loans and mortgages now exceeds one million

.

"Based on the latest information available at the microeconomic level, it is estimated that the increase in interest rates since the beginning of this year [of 1.6 percentage points for the 12-month Euribor, the main interest rate at which linked to the stock of mortgages in Spain] would lead to the proportion of families with debt that would have

a high net financial burden

would increase by almost two percentage points", explained Hernández de Cos last Friday during his speech at the seminar that the Association of Economic Information Journalists (APIE) organizes annually in Santander.

Those almost two percentage points, add sources from the Bank of Spain, correspond to the aforementioned 172,000 households.

And "this effect would be more intense in indebted households located between the 20th and 40th percentiles of the income distribution," the governor also pointed out, that is, it

is the low and lower-middle incomes

that are being affected to a greater extent .

.

All these alarming data, moreover, threaten to continue growing as the monetary tightening process progresses.

The most obvious and probably worrying route is that of

variable-rate mortgages

, which, although in recent times they have ceased to be the preferential option, they were until two or three years ago.

At that time, variable rate mortgage loans offered very low interest and rate hikes seemed distant.

Now, however, all these families are going to suffer a significant increase in the monthly burden they must face.

And they will have to do it, moreover, in a context of high prices and

impoverishment of the population

, which Hernández de Cos has also warned about on more than one occasion.

AIReF's estimate

To try to deal with this situation, the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, announced last Saturday a new package of measures that, added to what was already in force, will have

a combined impact of one full point of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). ) on the deficit

.

This was explained yesterday in her appearance in the Congress of Deputies by the president of the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), Cristina Herrero, who pointed out that only Saturday's measures amount to half a point of GDP.

Specifically, the State will stop entering 1,152 million euros by reducing the VAT on electricity and another 620 million with the reduction of the special tax on electricity.

In the part of the expenses, the most expensive action will be the fuel bonus (3,465 million), followed by other aid to individuals (717 million), direct aid to individuals (540 million) and sectoral aid (495 million), reports Eph.

With all of this, AIReF will once again revise upwards the budget deviation forecast for this year, bringing it to 4.7%.

Herrero also stressed something that both AIReF and the Bank of Spain have insisted on on numerous occasions to this Government: "Establish a medium-term fiscal strategy that serves as fiscal guidance and

realistically and credibly guarantees financial sustainability

."

However, the requests of both organizations have been repeatedly ignored by the Executive.

Conforms to The Trust Project criteria

Know more

Keywords: