Germany's competitive strength: Researchers warn of gas crisis - storage now 60 percent full

According to a new analysis, a short-term halt to Russian gas supplies would cost 12.7 percent of German economic output (GDP) in the second half of the year.

Sectors such as the glass industry or steel processing would be particularly badly affected, said Bertram Brossardt, General Manager of the Bavarian Business Association (vbw), on the study that the Prognos research institute prepared on behalf of vbw.

The chemical, ceramics, food and textile industries are also likely to feel the effects of a gas supply stop.

There would also be indirect effects if Russian gas supplies were to be stopped on July 1st.

"The natural gas bottlenecks cause domino effects," said Brossardt.

"These affect the entire value chain severely." The disruptions in the supply chains would have about three times the impact across all industries compared to the direct consequences.

"All in all, there is a risk of a loss of added value in the second half of the year of 193 billion euros." If the shortage lasts longer, an increase in unemployment can hardly be avoided.

"Germany is becoming a high-price island"

Germany's dependence on Russian gas had been underestimated, said Prognos chief economist Michael Böhmer.

Around half of the natural gas is consumed by protected customers - including consumers, hospitals or social institutions.

This need can be covered up to 93 percent.

On the other hand, non-protected customers, which include industry, received less than half of the gas they needed.

October will be particularly critical, said Böhmer: Here the gap in coverage is particularly large.

The heating period usually begins in the month in which demand increases.

At the same time, however, gas from the gas storage facilities is not yet being accessed.

In an international comparison, Germany in particular is particularly vulnerable, experts from the Mannheim-based economic research institute ZEW have calculated in their own analysis.

They come to the conclusion that the Federal Republic of Germany, together with the Netherlands, will become a "high-price island" when it comes to electricity supply.

In terms of susceptibility to missing deliveries, Germany is therefore particularly vulnerable, together with Italy.

According to the ZEW, both factors endanger competitiveness and make Germany unattractive for industrial sectors with high energy consumption.

The client was the Foundation for Family Businesses.

The ZEW took a look at the energy supply of 21 industrialized countries from the point of view of how much the national economies would suffer from price increases and supply bottlenecks.

The economists compared 16 EU countries, as well as the USA, Japan, Canada, Great Britain and Switzerland.

According to this, the security of supply of the three major non-European economies is not endangered at all because of the Ukraine war.

The price increases there have so far been “extremely moderate or non-existent,” the paper says.

In Europe, the vast majority of countries are less vulnerable to a lack of energy supplies than Germany, which is particularly dependent on Russian gas.

"The price effects of the energy crisis for electricity and gas are largely limited to European locations," explained study author Friedrich Heinemann.

There are striking differences within Europe.

"Germany, together with the Netherlands, is increasingly becoming a high-price island." According to the ZEW analysis, electricity prices in France and Switzerland, for example, have not risen significantly.