Zhongxin Finance, June 24 (Reporter Zuo Yukun) As the first batch of centralized land supply in Zhengzhou this year came to an end, the first round of centralized land supply in 22 cities across the country in 2022 has also been completed.

　　The launch of the first batch of centralized land supply this year started from the announcement on January 7 in Beijing and ended on June 22 in Zhengzhou, which lasted 5 months and 15 days.

After a year of running-in, in the second year after the "two-concentration" policy was implemented, what new changes have occurred in the local auction market?

Data map: Aerial photography of a new residential building.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Lv Ming

The centralized land supply in many places has been increased to four batches, and the scale has been reduced

　　According to statistics from the Middle Finger Research Institute, a total of 469 residential land projects have been launched in the 22 cities in this round, with a supply area of ​​21.35 million square meters of construction land and a planned construction area of ​​47.13 million square meters.

In the end, 397 transactions were completed, with a planned construction area of ​​39.07 million square meters, and the first batch of transactions totaled 496.9 billion yuan.

　　In this round of "land wholesale", which lasted for nearly half a year, the most intuitive change is that the centralized land supply in many places has been increased to four batches.

　　In 2021, the 22 cities will "sell land only three times" at a unified pace.

But this year, Beijing, Qingdao, Wuhan, Chongqing, Jinan, Xiamen, Suzhou, Zhengzhou and other cities have made it clear that the land supply will be divided into four batches throughout the year.

　　"The improvement of land supply batches will reduce the pressure of land supply in each batch, facilitate the flexible response of real estate companies, and be conducive to the stability of the land market." The Middle Finger Research Institute explained.

However, the increase of batches will inevitably disperse the land supply area of ​​each batch to a certain extent.

　　The data shows that the first batch of 22 cities launched 469 residential-related land, with a construction land area of ​​21.35 million square meters, down 58.5% from the first batch last year; the planned building area was 47.13 million square meters, a decrease of 67.07 million square meters from the first batch last year rice, a decrease of 58.7% compared with the launch of centralized land supply last year.

　　Some analysts believe that the downturn in the real estate market and the shortage of funds for housing companies have become the main reasons for the reduction of land supply in key cities.

The downturn in the market affects real estate companies' sales receipts and their enthusiasm for land acquisition. In order to prevent a large number of passed-in auctions, most cities take the initiative to reduce the scale of land supply.

Data map: Real estate properties under construction.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin

The heat difference between cities and within cities is obvious

　　From the perspective of land supply, in the trend of total reduction, the Yangtze River Delta region appears to be more lively than the three eastern provinces.

The city with the largest number of launches is Hangzhou, with 60 plots launched for the first time, and the supply area is also the largest among the 22 cities.

Shenyang launched 5 plots in the first round, and Changchun sold 2 residential land, the smallest number.

　　If you look at the average floor price, the strength of the first- and second-tier cities is still outstanding.

The highest is Beijing, with an average floor price of 29,018 yuan/㎡; followed by Xiamen, with an average floor price of 24,863 yuan/㎡; the third is Shanghai, with an average floor price of 19,075 yuan/㎡, which is different from the unit price in Beijing. Nearly ten thousand yuan.

　　When the land supply entered the auction market, there were only a handful of top-of-the-line land parcels in this round, and a large number of land parcels were sold at the reserve price.

　　The two cities of Shenzhen and Hefei achieved a lot in this round of soil auctions, with the highest proportion of top-selling land plots.

Shenzhen topped 100% of the land plots, and all 8 land plots hit the top, making it the city with the highest concentration of land supply this time; Hefei topped 62.5% of the land plots, ranking second, with 24 of the 24 lands sold. 15 auctions reached the cap price.

　　In the second echelon, the land markets of Hangzhou, Shanghai, Nanjing, Xiamen and Chongqing also maintained a high degree of popularity.

　　In contrast, in some other cities, most land parcels were sold at the reserve price, and the land auction market was relatively quiet.

Among them, Changchun and Shenyang, the two cities, all traded at the base price, accounting for 100%; Wuxi, Changsha, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Jinan, Qingdao, and Wuhan all accounted for more than 80% of the base price.

　　There are also some cities that are slightly cold, and the sale and withdrawal of land parcels are the mainstream.

In this sale, the number of failed auctions in Tianjin land auctions was the largest unexpectedly. Among the 30 land auctions sold, 15 were withdrawn in advance, and 9 were unsuccessful. The rate of failed auctions and withdrawals reached 83%.

Cities such as Changchun and Jinan also have a high pass-in rate.

　　In fact, in addition to the great differentiation in the popularity of soil auctions between cities, the differentiation within a single city is also more obvious.

In addition to Shenzhen, Hangzhou and other cities with strong market fundamentals, the overall popularity is relatively high, and cities with staged hot real estate markets such as Hefei and Nanjing have experienced cooling to varying degrees.

　　"Although the remaining cities have positive feedback such as a drop in the unsold auction rate and an increase in the premium rate, there may be objective factors such as the overall better land quality of this auction, and the transaction rate of the reserve price in most cities remains high, which reflects from the side. The willingness of developers to increase leverage and expand land reserves is still not strong, and it will take time for the overall recovery of the land auction market.” The China Index Research Institute pointed out.

Data map: Residential building.

Photo by Guo Qiyu

The supply side intends to reduce costs and make profits, and the central state-owned enterprises are still the main force

　　Looking back at the three rounds of centralized land supply in 2021, after the hot start of the first round, the rules for the second batch of land auctions have gradually tightened, and the ability of companies to acquire land has also tightened suddenly.

In the third batch, many places optimized the transfer conditions on the basis of the previous ones, which led to the stabilization of the market.

　　This year's first round of centralized land supply also continued the favorable policies of the past, which is also in parallel with the continuous optimization and adjustment of the control policies on both ends of the real estate supply and demand.

　　The supply-side land auction rules continue to adjust the trend, reducing or canceling the part of bidding, self-holding and bidding, from reducing costs to reducing actual costs; there is also a significant increase in the profit margin of land plots. Listing and raising the price of restricted sales have increased the enthusiasm of enterprises to acquire land to varying degrees.

　　However, land-acquisition enterprises are still dominated by central state-owned enterprises and local platforms, and local platforms in some cities are clearly underpinning.

　　From the perspective of the proportion of land acquisition by central state-owned enterprises, the first batch of land acquisitions in Beijing, Shenzhen, Xiamen, Shenzhen and Chongqing will account for more than 50% of the land acquisitions, of which Nanjing exceeds 90%.

　　From the perspective of the proportion of land acquisition by local platforms, Tianjin, Wuxi, Wuhan, Ningbo, Fuzhou, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Chengdu and other cities accounted for more than 50% of the land acquisition by local platforms, and over 70% in Wuxi, Tianjin and Suzhou.

　　From the perspective of the proportion of private enterprises acquiring land, the enthusiasm is obviously insufficient. There are no private enterprises acquiring land in Nanjing, Shenzhen, and Suzhou, and only about 10% in Beijing, Xiamen, Guangzhou, Ningbo and Tianjin. Only Hefei private enterprises accounted for more than 50% of the land acquisitions. %.

　　However, signs of recovery are beginning to emerge.

At present, the second batch of centralized land supply this year in Beijing, Qingdao, Fuzhou, and Xiamen, which have a fast pace of land supply, has also ended.

High-credit private housing companies have begun to exert their efforts. Leading private housing companies such as Binjiang Group, CIFI Holdings and Longfor Group have actively resumed their participation in land auctions.

　　"Previously, under the 'three red lines' and other rules, the capital chain of private housing enterprises was relatively tight, and buyers in the superimposed sales market had a strong wait-and-see mood. The overall market was relatively sluggish, and some private housing enterprises were greatly impacted. Credit private enterprises will re-participate in land auctions." Zhang Kai, head of the Land Division of the China Index Research Institute, said.

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