Zhongxin Finance, June 23. The Propaganda Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a series of press conferences on the theme of "China's Ten Years" on June 23. At the meeting, a reporter asked: How is the current macro leverage ratio?
In addition, from the perspective of changes in the macro leverage ratio in recent years, what is the effect of macro-control policies?
In this regard, Chen Yulu, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said that changes in the macro leverage ratio are an important indicator to measure the effect of macroeconomic regulation.
In recent years, the People's Bank of China has continuously improved the financial macro-control system, innovated and improved the methods of macro-control, and under the premise that the macro-leverage ratio has generally remained stable, it has strongly supported the development of the real economy and effectively ensured that my country's national economy operates at a reasonable level. interval.
From a vertical perspective, China's macro leverage ratio, according to my data, will be 272.5% by the end of 2021, an increase of 23.9 percentage points from the end of 2016, that is to say, the five-year average annual increase is about 4.8 percentage points.
In the five years from 2016 to 2021, the average annual growth rate of China's GDP is about 6%, the average annual growth rate of CPI is about 2%, and the average annual increase of urban employment exceeds 13 million.
In other words, China has achieved an optimized combination of "higher growth, lower inflation, and more employment" supported by a moderate and controllable increase in the macro leverage ratio, and macro-control has achieved good results.
From a horizontal perspective, since the outbreak of COVID-19, China has supported the rapid recovery of the economy with relatively little new debt, and the growth rate of its macro leverage ratio has been significantly lower than that of other major economies.
After the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia, countries have generally adopted ultra-loose stimulus policies to deal with the recession, causing a substantial increase in the macro leverage ratio.
At the end of 2021, the average leverage ratio of all reporting countries according to the Bank for International Settlements was 264.4%, 18.3 percentage points higher than at the end of 2019.
In comparison, this figure in China is 16.5 percentage points, which reflects our macro policy orientation of not engaging in "flooding", not over-issuing currency, and not over-drafting the future.
While stabilizing leverage, China's economic performance continued to lead, and inflation was generally under control.
From 2020 to 2021, the average two-year growth rate of China's economy is 5.1%, which is 4.1, 6.6 and 5.7 percentage points higher than that of the United States, Japan and the euro area, respectively. The inflation level is also significantly lower than that of major developed economies
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Therefore, in general, China's macro-control policies in recent years have been powerful, measured and effective, and the macro leverage ratio has generally achieved "stable leadership", ensuring that the national economy operates within a reasonable range, and it has also contributed positively to global economic growth. contribute to become an important power source and stabilizer for the global economy.
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