□ The decline in monetary fund yields is directly related to the current relatively loose monetary environment.
□ In the short term, the yield of money market funds will not rise significantly; in the long run, represented by the recovery of infrastructure and real estate-related industrial chains, monetary policy may converge to a certain degree after the economy stabilizes and shows a certain trend upward. , then money market fund returns will pick up.
Recently, the 7-day annualized rate of return of a number of monetary funds fell below 2%, arousing concern.
Wind data shows that as of June 20, there were 556 money funds with an annualized rate of return below 2% on the 7th, accounting for nearly 80% of the total market money funds (718).
It is worth mentioning that the Tianhong Yu'ebao currency fund, which once yielded more than 6%, fell from the highest yield of 2.175% on January 6 this year, and the yield on June 20 was only 1.619%.
Regarding the reasons for the lower yields of money funds, industry insiders generally said that the decline in yields of money funds is directly related to the current relatively loose monetary environment.
Yuan Jiwei, an asset management researcher, said that since the beginning of this year, market liquidity has been relatively loose, and the 7-day Shibor (Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate), which reflects the cost of short-term capital, has continued to decline, and is currently at a low level since 2019.
At the same time, the People's Bank of China has also guided the cost of capital to decline by reducing LPR and other methods. Against this background, the yield of monetary funds has continued to decline.
Wang Yifeng, chief analyst of the financial industry of Everbright Securities, believes that the decline in monetary fund yields has a lot to do with the current easing of market funds.
Affected by the epidemic, my country's monetary policy maintains a loose liquidity state, the money market interest rate remains low, the short-term repurchase rate is significantly lower than the open market operation rate, and the one-year interbank deposit rate is also lower than the MLF interest rate. With sufficient funds, the rate of return on the investable assets of money market funds has also declined to a certain extent, and the rate of return of money market funds to investors has also declined accordingly.
Under the circumstance that the yield of currency funds is falling, and it is likely that it will be difficult to significantly increase in the short term, investors are beginning to seek new options. Among them, the interbank certificate of deposit fund is undoubtedly one of the most popular investment targets this year.
As of the end of May, the scale of interbank depository index funds has exceeded 70 billion yuan.
"Compared with currency funds, which have strict requirements on portfolio duration and asset rating, interbank depository index funds have fewer investment restrictions, wider investment scope, and more flexible portfolio duration manipulation. In the context of relatively loose monetary policy, this Such products take into account low drawdown and high liquidity, and at the same time can obtain excess returns higher than money funds, and then undertake the replacement demand of money funds." Wang Zhuoran, fund manager of the Fixed Income Investment Department of Industrial Fund, said.
Looking forward to the future trend of monetary funds, Yuan Jiwei believes that the short-term capital cost is already at a low level at this stage, and there is little room for further decline in the future.
After the implementation of a series of stable growth policies, as the economic growth momentum increases and the economy gradually improves, the central bank will appropriately adjust the liquidity level, and market funds will also have a process of returning to normal levels. Hovering and then gradually recovering”.
"In the current situation that the epidemic continues to spread in many places, monetary policy still intends to maintain a loose liquidity system, which is conducive to the stability of short-term capital prices. Therefore, in the short term, the yield of money market funds will not rise significantly; From a long-term perspective, represented by the recovery of infrastructure and real estate-related industrial chains, after the economy stabilizes and shows a certain trend, monetary policy may converge to a certain extent, and then the income of money market funds will rebound." Wang Yifeng said that if investors invest at this stage, they must first consider their own risk tolerance. Whether they invest in interbank depository index funds or other fixed-income products, they must pay attention to controlling net worth fluctuation risks and credit risks.
Reporter: Ma Chunyang