The CEO of Deutsche Bank leaves open whether the glass is half full or half empty.

But his tone reveals a hint of pessimism: "I would say that with central bank announcements that they are going to raise interest rates quite sharply, while it's hard to give a percentage, the probability of a global recession, including in Europe, is 50 percent lies,” said Christian Sewing at the “Future of Finance” conference on Wednesday in Frankfurt.

Gregory Bruner

Editor in Business.

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While the penguins of the Frankfurt Zoo were showing off their tails outside, in the event hall next door, people tended to wear suits, open shirts or airy dresses.

The data provider Bloomberg hosted its conference on current developments in the financial markets and the economy for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic.

Sewing joined the event via video from Berlin.

His forecast applies to the second half of 2023. Supply chain problems, rising food prices and the risk of another corona wave, combined with rising interest rates, weighed on the global economy, said Sewing.

The economic difficulties, above all the high inflation, also harbor political risks: "If inflation rises too much and too quickly, that is a danger for democracy." unsustainable levels of around 8 percent to less than 4 percent.

Consolidation of European banks does not only depend on banking union

As for Deutsche Bank, Sewing spoke about the role it should play in consolidating the European banking sector.

The institute must have "its own house in order" and take the corporate culture sufficiently into account in the case of takeovers, Sewing explained. The banking union in Europe, which has only been implemented incompletely so far, Sewing called "not the only prerequisite" for successful transactions.

Many bankers cite their absence as the main obstacle to large cross-border mergers in the European Union.

In addition to Sewing, other well-known business representatives spoke at the conference.

Vlad Kliatchko, Chief Product Officer at Bloomberg, traveled from New York to give the welcome speech.

In his speech, he spoke about the increasingly complex financial markets and the increasing demands on financial professionals in view of the increasing flood of data: "In one day, around 300 billion movements happen on the financial markets, all of which can be relevant for decision-makers." The challenge for data providers is in future, to help users and customers with the processing and not just to hand out the data to them.

Artificial intelligence is the key to this.

Arno Antlitz, CFO of Volkswagen, spoke later.

He confirmed the plan to take Porsche public, despite the adverse financial environment.

Antlitz plans to debut on the floor in the fourth quarter of 2022.