On Wednesday, June 22, the Russian currency rises in price on the Moscow Exchange.

At the beginning of trading, the dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.8% and for the first time since June 2015 reached 52.8 rubles.

At the same time, the euro exchange rate fell by 2.2% to 55.01 rubles.

The last time a similar indicator could be observed in May 2015.

Significant support for the ruble is still provided by the imbalance of demand and supply of foreign currency in the country, experts say.

Thus, dollars and euros received from the sale of goods abroad enter Russia in significant volumes, but interest in them from the population and business is falling against the backdrop of low imports and restrictions on the country's financial market.

“The determining factor for the exchange rate was the balance of trade.

Russian exports have been at record levels since the beginning of the year, while imports have fallen sharply.

A large influx of foreign currency as a result of a positive balance leads to a strengthening of the ruble, ”Vitaly Isakov, investment director of Otkritie Management Company, told RT.

In general, over the past three months, the national currency has managed not only to fully win back all the sanctions losses of the current year, but also to more than double strengthen compared to the levels of early March.

At that moment, against the background of the economic restrictions of the West against Moscow, the dollar and euro exchange rates for the first time rose above 121 and 132 rubles, respectively.

The sharp appreciation of the ruble has recently become one of the main reasons for the slowdown in inflation in Russia, as previously announced by the Central Bank.

According to the regulator, at the moment, the growth of consumer prices in the country has already moved away from the spring highs and is now slowing down faster than expected.

“Latest data points to low current price growth rates in May and early June.

This was facilitated by the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate and the exhaustion of the effects of rush consumer demand in the face of a noticeable decrease in inflationary expectations of the population and businesses,” the Central Bank noted.

  • © RIA Novosti / Maria Devakhina

Recall that in mid-spring, annual inflation in Russia rose to 17.8% for the first time in 20 years.

Then it was assumed that by the end of 2022, the figure could even exceed 20%.

However, now the growth rate of consumer prices in annual terms has slowed down to 16.7%, and by the end of this year, the authorities predict a level no higher than 15%.

Traditionally, the strengthening of the national currency should lead to a reduction in the cost of imported goods.

At the same time, specialists interviewed by RT do not yet expect a significant reduction in prices for foreign products.

As analysts explain, the import of a number of commodity items into the country is limited by sanctions.

At the same time, foreign products supplied by parallel imports are sold with an extra charge of intermediaries.

“Of course, other things being equal, the strengthening of the national currency leads to a decrease in inflation.

However, in a situation of limited import supplies and rising logistics costs for those goods that can be imported, the impact of a strong exchange rate on prices is not as strong as it could be,” Vitaly Isakov explained.

Keeping an eye on the budget

Although inflation in Russia has begun to slow down, a too strong ruble is unprofitable for Russian exporters, on whom the main budget revenues depend.

Natalya Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Investment Company, shared this opinion with RT.

“Exporters with a weak ruble can receive more profit in rubles, respectively, pay more income tax to the budget.

In this context, a very expensive ruble can be just as unprofitable for the economy as a too cheap one,” Milchakova explained.

A similar point of view was previously voiced by First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Andrei Belousov.

According to him, the excessive strengthening of the national currency is due to the fact that the Central Bank does not target the ruble exchange rate.

At the same time, the deputy head of the Cabinet of Ministers considers 70-80 rubles per dollar to be the optimal level for Russian industry.

“We see that the Bank of Russia is consistently lowering the key rate, a few days ago it lowered it to 9.5%.

This is evidence that we have the problem of high inflation, which really stood, has now given way to problems related primarily to the overvalued exchange rate and the need to stimulate production, ”TASS quotes Belousov as saying.

However, the Central Bank still opposes the artificial fixation of exchange rates in Russia.

This, in particular, was stated by the chairman of the regulator Elvira Nabiullina.

“We do not proceed from the fact that it is necessary to weaken the ruble on purpose.

The position of the Central Bank: we target inflation, but we do not target the exchange rate.

The ruble must remain floating, ”RIA Novosti quotes Nabiullina.

  • © RIA Novosti / Press Service of the Bank of Russia

As Finam FG analyst Alexander Potavin suggested in a conversation with RT, in the near future, large amounts of foreign exchange earnings coming into the country will continue to support the ruble.

However, the re-launch of the fiscal rule may put some pressure on the Russian currency, the specialist believes.

“Within the framework of this mechanism, the Ministry of Finance will direct excess profits from oil and gas exports to purchase foreign currency to replenish the National Welfare Fund.

This will balance the record sales of foreign exchange earnings by exporters.

Work on a new budget rule is already underway, ”said the interlocutor of RT.

According to Vitaly Isakov, a further reduction in the Central Bank's key rate and the removal of restrictions on the movement of capital in the country should help to contain the strengthening of the ruble to a certain extent.

Nevertheless, the balance of exports and imports will remain the main reference point for exchange rates, the analyst is sure.

“The main hope is to reduce the trade balance.

In this case, it is possible to return the dollar and euro rates to the range of 60-70 rubles, ”Isakov concluded.