Securities Times reporter Hu Huaxiong
Recently, with the overall rebound of the market, many important market indexes, including the Shanghai Composite Index, are approaching or breaking through the half-year line, and the market has reached another important time window.
For the current market, experts and institutions have different opinions.
Some experts believe that my country's economy is in a stage of recovery. In the future, with the gradual implementation of a series of policies to stabilize growth, the trend of economic recovery will become more obvious, which will further boost the performance of the stock market.
There are also experts who believe that the follow-up may be a balanced city and a volatile city, and some lost ground may be recovered, but it should not be blindly optimistic, and the concept of bargaining should still be adhered to.
Multiple important indices
approaching the half-year line
On June 21, the main A-share index fell, but it did not change the general trend of the main index approaching the half-year line.
Observing the market trend, it can be found that many important indexes including the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the half-year line at the end of last year and early this year, and have been running below the half-year line for more than 5 months.
However, the Shanghai Composite Index recently rebounded to close to the semi-annual line again, and broke through the semi-annual line for the first time on June 15, and again on June 20 and June 21. The ChiNext Index is also in a similar situation. On the 20th, it broke through the half-year line; the Shenzhen Component Index and the CSI 300 Index were only one step away from the half-year line after the recent rise.
In technical analysis, the half-year line is generally regarded as one of the dividing lines between bulls and bears. Before it breaks through, it will suppress the market. After an effective breakthrough, it will form new support for the market, which means that the current A-share market has entered a more important period. time window.
In an interview with a Securities Times reporter, Gui Haoming, a senior market person, believes that the A-share market has obvious technical bear market characteristics in the first half of this year. Since May, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have rebounded more obviously, and even technical indicators indicate that it may enter a technical bull market. not easy.
Gui Haoming believes that the current market continues to rebound, and even the important index is approaching the half-year line, which is affected by three factors: First, with the introduction of various national policies such as stable growth and stable expectations, the operating atmosphere of the capital market has been greatly improved. In particular, the improvement of liquidity in this process is relatively obvious; second, the recent epidemic has been relatively well controlled, and the economic recovery is relatively obvious, especially the sharp increase in foreign trade in May, reflecting the resilience of China's economy; third, during this period, the market has seized With themes such as new energy, many funds participated, which triggered market resonance and formed a wave of market conditions.
U.S. stocks continue to adjust
A-shares show resilience
Recently, U.S. inflation has remained high, and the Fed’s interest rate hikes have impacted the global equity market. Many major stock markets, including U.S. stocks, have been adjusted continuously. Some investors were originally worried that A-shares may also be affected to some extent, but the recent trends of A-shares have shown quite Independence, but continued to rise, showing a certain degree of resilience.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan, pointed out that the current positions of US stocks and A shares are different.
He believes that the impact of the decline in US stocks on A-shares is short-term. From a medium and long-term perspective, my country's economy is in the recovery stage. In the future, with a series of stable growth policies gradually implemented, the economic recovery will be more obvious, which will further boost the performance of the stock market.
After the sharp rise in new energy, it may be the turn of consumer stocks to perform, because consumption is the sector most affected by the epidemic. At present, the epidemic prevention and control measures in various places have begun to gradually relax, and the pent-up consumer demand will rebound. stocks bring opportunities.
Gui Haoming believes that there is little possibility of a subsequent surge or crash, or it will balance the market.
In terms of style, it not only highlights the thematic opportunities such as new energy and the Science and Technology Innovation Board, but other sectors will also have corresponding opportunities. The sector opportunities are relatively balanced, and the follow-up market is expected to rise steadily and regain lost ground.
However, Gui Haoming also reminded investors not to be blindly optimistic. It is normal for the market to fluctuate, and it is still necessary to adhere to the concept of bargaining.