The Fed's rate hike sparked a violent reaction in global markets --
What is the future trend of commodities
Recently, the global commodity market has experienced twists and turns, with most varieties showing a downward trend.
The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates sharply a few days ago, triggering a violent reaction, and the market's worries about a recession are also heating up.
What is the future trend of commodities?
What impact will it have on the country?
Experts said that it is necessary to be alert to the spillover effect of rapid interest rate hikes in the United States, and to maintain the overall situation of hard-won steady growth and supply and stable prices.
Crude oil and agricultural prices remain strong
Have commodity prices "peaked"?
Some people believe that under the influence of factors such as high inflation in major developed economies, geopolitical conflicts and the new crown pneumonia epidemic, supply and demand are further unbalanced, energy prices are rising, the global economy is weak, the demand for industrial products is expected to be sluggish, and commodity prices have peaked; The view is that commodities and oil prices remain bullish, arguing that "most commodities are in a long-term uptrend."
Although the Fed raised interest rates more than expected, the monthly difference structure of the crude oil market continued to be strong, and oil prices continued to perform strongly.
Yang An, head of energy and chemical research at Haitong Futures Co., Ltd., said that currently overseas markets are facing high inflationary pressures, and cooling the oil market has become an important task for governments.
The United States has made frequent moves recently, and may introduce some cooling measures, which is an uncertain factor facing the current market.
From the perspective of the domestic market, the Wenhua Commodity Index has experienced a period of decline since June 9.
Crude oil plate, oil plate, grain plate, etc. are a few of the few closed up plates.
At present, crude oil and agricultural products are still the two major "anti-fall" sectors.
Shi Shi, deputy director of the Haizheng Futures Research Institute, believes that the US dollar index has now reached a high point, which will have a suppressive effect on commodities in the medium and long term.
Crude oil and agricultural products are affected by changes in the global commodity supply chain, especially the supply-side tightening caused by the conflict in Russia and Ukraine, peaking and falling later.
Some experts believe that as long as there is no obvious downward trend in oil prices and agricultural products, it is difficult for commodities to have an inflection point.
The trend of differentiation of different varieties is increasing
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in May, the main indicators of my country's economy rebounded.
The resumption of work and production of enterprises is progressing steadily.
Benefiting from a series of policy measures, the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first five months increased again, and manufacturing investment increased by 10.6% year-on-year.
In this context, the domestic commodity market was mixed, and the trend of various varieties became more differentiated.
"Commodity prices are not only related to the domestic economic cycle, but also affected by the global economic cycle. Under the intertwining of internal and external factors, the market may experience wide fluctuations." Cao Yanghui, director of the South China Futures Research Institute, said.
Overall, the South China Commodity Index remains strong, and the commodity market is already at an all-time high.
In terms of sub-sectors, after the precious metal sector has bottomed out and risen in stages, the internal driving force is insufficient, and there will be no strong trend in the short term.
Confidence in stabilizing the economy and the broader market is clear, and demand recovery may drive up the non-ferrous sector.
Xiao Jing, chief researcher of non-ferrous metals at SDIC Anxin Futures Research Institute, told reporters that the bull market atmosphere for non-ferrous metals has begun to differentiate, and the independent supply and demand pricing of various varieties plays a greater role.
Under the background of ensuring supply and stable prices, the supply of most non-ferrous metals in China will continue to be stable.
Qiu Yuecheng, assistant to the director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black commodity research, said that the price of steel has fallen significantly, and the stock of rebar is at the highest level in the same period in history, which has significantly suppressed the trend of steel prices.
The domestic pig iron production has rebounded sharply, and the steel mills' demand for raw materials is at a high level.
Therefore, the performance of raw material prices is significantly stronger than that of steel, which also puts pressure on the profits of steel mills.
The corn market is in sufficient supply in phases.
Wan Chengzhi, a researcher at the Shanghai Research Institute of Hengli Futures, told reporters that at present, the downstream consumption of corn is stable, the starch plant is running steadily, the feed output is rising steadily, and the corn inventory of deep-processing enterprises has decreased compared with the same period last year.
Help stabilize the economy
The volatility of commodity prices has brought a lot of pressure to real companies.
It is an important task for the futures market to better serve the real economy and play an active role in ensuring the supply and price of bulk commodities.
Since the beginning of this year, my country's major futures exchanges have resolutely implemented the deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council to ensure supply and stabilize prices, and have adopted a series of targeted risk control and service measures to improve the quality of market operations, promote the smooth circulation of futures and currents, and expand service channels. , to provide futures solutions for securing supply and price of bulk commodities, helping to stabilize the broader economic market.
The relevant person in charge of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange said that the futures market is of great significance to promoting the sustainable operation of enterprises and ensuring the stable development of the real economy.
Zhengshang focuses on the supply of innovative varieties, and is oriented to cultivate and serve industrial enterprises, and strive to expand the breadth and depth of serving the real economy.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange's "Futures Price Stabilization Order" pilot project has become a bright spot.
Last year, Shanghai Futures Exchange and Baowu Group and its subsidiary Ouyeel Cloud Commercial Co., Ltd. carried out a pilot cooperation on "futures price stabilization orders" on ferrous metal varieties. risk tool.
This year, the "Futures Price Stabilization Order" project has been extended to petroleum asphalt, low-sulfur fuel oil and other energy and chemical varieties. Through the "future-current linkage", enterprises are encouraged to use option tools to hedge risks, and help entities in the oil and gas industry chain resume work, production and stable operations. .
Liu Yong, general manager of the current business planning center of Shandong Dongbo Petrochemical Co., Ltd., said that in the environment of drastic fluctuations in the prices of energy and chemical commodities, "futures price stabilization orders" can allow enterprises to boldly arrange production and operation plans without worrying anymore. The impact of future price fluctuations will give real enterprises a "reassurance".
Dalian Commodity Exchange provides more professional, refined and characteristic futures services for enterprises while monitoring the operation of grain, iron ore, pigs and other commodity markets.
As of the end of May this year, a total of 94 types of futures options have been listed in my country, covering energy, grain, metals and other important fields related to the national economy and people's livelihood, involving more than 60 industrial chains, escorting commodities worth about 22 trillion yuan, weaving a Zhang has a relatively complete risk management network serving real enterprises.
Wang Ying, vice president of China Futures Association, suggested that real enterprises can effectively avoid risks caused by many uncertain factors in the process of production and operation by scientifically using the functions of price discovery, hedging, and risk hedging in the futures market, and realize the enterprise business model. Optimize and upgrade.
Our reporter Zhu Huichun