Since the beginning of this year, my country's foreign trade import and export have achieved a stable start, and the achievements have not come easily.
Affected by the repeated COVID-19 epidemics, geographical tensions and other factors, as well as the high base effect, my country's foreign trade development is facing many difficulties and challenges.
At the same time, it should be noted that the fundamentals of my country's economy remain stable and sound in the long run, the comparative advantage of participating in international cooperation and competition has not changed, and the basic characteristics of foreign trade with strong resilience and great potential have not changed.
In general, my country has a solid foundation for stabilizing its foreign trade fundamentals.
In the next stage, it is necessary to identify the existing difficult problems, implement effective measures, promote the stable development of foreign trade, and provide strong support for stabilizing the macroeconomic market.
A smooth start is hard to come by
In the first quarter of 2022, my country's foreign trade import and export growth trend is good, maintaining positive year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters, and there are still many favorable factors.
From the perspective of development foundation, the foreign trade import and export trend is stable and high quality.
In the first quarter, my country's total import and export of goods reached 9.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%.
Among them, exports were 5.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%; imports were 4.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%.
In terms of structure, in the first quarter, my country's general trade import and export was 5.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, accounting for 63.2% of the total foreign trade import and export, an increase of 1.8 percentage points compared with the same period last year; processing trade import and export was 1.99 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase. 4.2%.
The trade structure was further optimized.
In terms of factors, the main body of foreign trade business is more active.
With the support of a series of policies and measures to stabilize foreign trade, private enterprises and small, medium and micro enterprises have played a significant role in boosting foreign trade imports and exports.
In the first quarter, there were 432,000 foreign trade enterprises with actual import and export performance in my country, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%.
Among them, the import and export of private enterprises increased by 14.1%, driving the growth of foreign trade by 6.6 percentage points.
The "March 2022 Export Trade (B2B) Index Report of Small, Medium and Micro Enterprises" shows that the receipts of small, medium and micro foreign trade enterprises in March increased by 15.7% year-on-year, which was higher than the growth rate of goods trade exports in March, and the development vitality of small and medium foreign trade enterprises was enhanced. .
From the perspective of endogenous power, foreign trade growth continues to accumulate new momentum.
Cross-border e-commerce and other new forms of foreign trade and new models developed steadily.
In the first quarter, the import and export of cross-border e-commerce reached 434.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%.
Among them, the export was 310.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%; the import was 124.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, and the development trend was generally stable.
The number of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones in my country has reached 132, and the number of overseas warehouses has exceeded 2,000.
"Cross-border e-commerce + overseas warehouse platform", together with market procurement and comprehensive foreign trade services, has become a living force driving the high-quality development of my country's foreign trade.
From the perspective of development space, the market of countries along the “Belt and Road” has a more prominent role in promoting the growth of foreign trade imports and exports.
In the first quarter, the total import and export volume between my country and countries along the “Belt and Road” reached 2.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%.
From the perspective of policy support, the support and guarantee system for the high-quality development of foreign trade has become more complete.
With the continuous development of a series of supporting policies such as tax reduction and fee reduction, customs clearance facilitation, financial credit support, smooth sea and airport collection and distribution, and stable supply of energy and raw materials, the development momentum of my country's foreign trade import and export has become more stable.
On the whole, my country's foreign trade imports and exports started smoothly in the first quarter of this year. This was achieved on the basis of a high base of 29.2% year-on-year growth in imports and exports in the first quarter of 2021. It was achieved in an effective response to the repeated global new crown pneumonia epidemic and the Ukraine crisis. Achieved under the background, the results are not easy to come by.
Rational view of slowing growth
Realistically, my country's foreign trade import and export still faces many difficulties and pressures.
In April this year, my country's total foreign trade imports and exports increased by 0.1% year-on-year.
The slowdown in foreign trade growth is mainly due to the following reasons.
From the demand side, global demand growth faces uncertainty.
The ups and downs of the epidemic have repeatedly hindered the global economic recovery.
The International Monetary Fund estimated in its World Economic Outlook report released in April that the global economy will grow by 3.6% in 2022, down 0.8 percentage points from its previous forecast.
A report released by the World Trade Organization in April predicted that the volume of global merchandise trade will grow by 3% in 2022, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous forecast.
At the same time, the imbalance of global macro policy has exacerbated global risks.
At present, the pace of economic recovery in different countries in the world is different, the gap between the growth rates of developed and developing countries has widened, and the global inflationary pressure has intensified.
The accelerated withdrawal of stimulus policies from developed countries such as the United States may aggravate risks in some countries, thereby affecting my country's exports in related fields.
From the supply side, my country's industrial chain supply chain faces three pressures.
First, the cost is generally rising.
Affected by supply bottlenecks, extreme weather, geopolitics, etc., since the second half of 2021, the prices of international bulk commodities have risen sharply, the cost of raw materials for foreign trade companies has risen, the problem of labor shortages still exists, and the profitability of some small and medium-sized foreign trade companies is not optimistic.
Second, the pressure of "broken chain" due to the lack of important components is still there.
The global "chip shortage" continues, causing manufacturers of smartphones, automobiles, and game equipment to stop production or reduce production. The shortage of key components also affects the smooth delivery of my country's export products.
The third is to accelerate the reconstruction of the global industrial chain and supply chain.
The trend of localization and regionalization of the global industrial chain and supply chain is more obvious, some industrial chain and supply chain links are transferred, and the adjustment of the global industrial chain and supply chain pattern will also bring challenges to my country's foreign trade stabilization.
From the perspective of circulation, the problems of high shipping costs and obstruction of circulation are still prominent.
Although the situation of "lack of containers and ships" in the international shipping market has eased recently, the problems of tight transportation capacity and high freight rates still exist.
Importers from the United States, the European Union and other countries and regions have passed on part of the increase in shipping costs to exporters, squeezing the profit margins of my country's foreign trade companies, causing many companies to "do not dare to accept orders".
Affected by factors such as repeated epidemics, labor shortages in ports, and a serious shortage of truck drivers, port congestion problems in the United States, the United Kingdom and other countries have intensified.
The pressure of the obstruction of circulation links is constantly being transmitted to my country's export enterprises.
It should be noted that in May, my country's foreign trade exports reached US$308.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, which was 13 percentage points higher than the 3.9% export growth rate in April. The export of high-tech and high-value-added products continued to increase. Still solid.
In the future, as long as the current pain points and difficulties in the field of foreign trade are solved in a targeted manner, the stability and quality of foreign trade can be further promoted.
Multiple efforts to stabilize foreign trade
At present and in the future, we need to focus on the following four aspects.
First, do a good job in the implementation of trade promotion policies.
The focus is to coordinate and solve the difficulties of foreign trade enterprises in terms of resumption of work and production, and project construction in a timely manner.
It is necessary to further play the role of export credit insurance in promoting foreign trade exports, strengthen support for small and medium-sized enterprises, expand the scale of underwriting, reduce insurance costs such as premiums, expand the scope of insurance products, and stabilize the expectations of foreign trade enterprises; it is necessary to strengthen export credit support, actively Promote policy financing, increase credit for small, medium and micro foreign trade enterprises, and resolve financing difficulties for foreign trade enterprises; improve export tax rebate policies, and implement tax rebates for enterprises with good export tax rebate credit in stages within 3 working days.
At the same time, expand the import of high-quality products, optimize the supply structure, meet market demand, and promote consumption upgrades.
The second is to actively develop new forms of foreign trade and new models.
Promote the development of new trade formats such as cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouse platforms, support eligible cross-border e-commerce-related enterprises to declare high-tech enterprises, and promote the high-level construction and operation of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones; build a global network of overseas warehouses , strengthen the competitiveness and influence of rules and standards, support overseas warehouse enterprises to build smart logistics platforms; promote the accelerated development of digital trade, and actively carry out international cooperation in digital trade; optimize the policy framework of market procurement trade methods and improve the level of facilitation; promote comprehensive foreign trade Professional development of services to promote the development of bonded maintenance and offshore trade.
The third is to focus on breaking through the obstacles of the international logistics system.
Encourage foreign trade enterprises and shipping enterprises to sign long-term agreements to ease the pressure on international logistics.
Expand the network of international logistics channels, cultivate a group of logistics enterprises with international competitiveness, accelerate the improvement of international transportation security capabilities, effectively deal with the oligopoly situation in the international shipping market, and enhance the influence and control of my country's shipping industry.
Give full play to the role of China-Europe freight trains to provide strong support for cooperation between my country and countries along the "Belt and Road".
Make good use of air cargo capacity to ensure the transportation of important parts, equipment and products.
Fourth, continue to optimize the foreign trade business environment.
Make good use of free trade agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and give better play to the role of pilot free trade zones.
Deepen the reform of facilitation of customs clearance in the whole chain and the whole process, improve the comprehensive service capabilities of ports, and improve the efficiency of customs clearance for the return of exported goods.
Promote the construction of a big data platform for cross-border trade management, explore the interconnection of relevant documents, information sharing and online verification, and provide more convenience for trustworthy enterprises in customs clearance and tax refunds.
Jin Ruiting Yuanqian
(Author: Institute of Foreign Economics, China Academy of Macroeconomics)