Reporter Jiao Yue Wang Xi Zhao Binbin

　　At present, small and medium-sized logistics enterprises are facing the dual pressure of "low supply and high cost". The heavy truck industry in the same industry chain has experienced "13 consecutive declines" in monthly sales.

A game and self-rescue between the industry and the cycle is going on.

　　"Both the logistics industry and the heavy truck industry are now in a low period, and how to save themselves has become a problem to be solved at the moment." An industry insider told the "Securities Daily" reporter.

　　Heavy truck industry chain dilemma to be solved

　　Recently, a reporter from "Securities Daily" came to the Shandong Quansheng International Logistics Market in Jinan City. The scene of busy traffic in the past has become much cooler now.

The reporter saw in the market that the doors of many small logistics companies were closed, and some stores also posted notices of "auspicious rooms for rent".

　　Chen Wei, the head of a medium-sized logistics company running the Shandong-Xinjiang route in the market, told the Securities Daily reporter: "We have been running transportation for more than ten years, and we have never encountered such a difficult time. In 2020, the company will loan I bought 15 natural gas heavy trucks, but now I am faced with 'the more you do, the more you lose'."

　　"Now, medium-sized logistics companies are gritting their teeth and insisting on scraping by, and many of those 'mom-and-pop stores' type of small logistics companies are unable to survive." Chen Wei said.

　　Zhang Qiang was originally a truck driver. In order to realize the transformation from a truck driver to a boss, in 2021, she took advantage of the opportunity of "zero down payment" to borrow nearly 300,000 yuan to buy a truck.

However, changes in the market caught him off guard.

"Without a fixed supply of goods, increasing competitors, rising costs and other unfavorable factors, there is a lot of pressure on the loan of more than 9,000 yuan per month." Truck owner Zhang Qiang told the "Securities Daily" reporter: "Because of the repeated epidemics, truck drivers are unable to continue as usual. At the same time, the reduction in corporate transportation demand also makes truck drivers often face the situation of no goods to pull.”

　　The reporter learned from an interview that in order to earn money to live and pay off car loans, even if the supply of goods is scarce, the road is difficult to travel, and the cost is high, truck drivers have to continue to pull out the trucks.

　　The situation of "Zhang Qiang and Chen Wei" is almost a microcosm of the current small and medium-sized logistics enterprises in my country.

According to the report of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, there are nearly 600,000 legal entities in my country's transportation, warehousing and postal industries, more than 5.8 million self-employed households, and more than 6 million logistics-related market entities.

Among them, more than 90% of the legal entities belong to small, medium and micro enterprises.

　　The survival dilemma of small, medium and micro logistics enterprises will emerge as early as 2021.

According to the "Investigation Report on the Operational Conditions of Small, Medium and Micro Logistics Enterprises" released by the China Association of Logistics and Purchasing in May this year, more than half of the surveyed small, medium and micro logistics enterprises suffered losses in 2021, and nearly one-third of the enterprises' profits were basically the same. Only 18.4% of companies are profitable.

　　Chen Wei calculated such an account to the "Securities Daily" reporter: "To transport a truck of goods from Jinan to Urumqi, Xinjiang, the freight for a round trip is about 40,000 yuan, and a round-trip before can earn more than 10,000 yuan. The price increase. After that, the cost of fuel alone increased by 15,000 yuan, plus the high-speed fee, labor cost and loss depreciation, and the cost of a round trip alone soared to 43,000 yuan. In addition, due to the intensified competition in the industry due to the reduction of orders, the freight not only did not increase , it will even drop, and you will lose several thousand yuan for one trip.”

　　Chen Wei told reporters: "Due to the shutdown of many local factories, the supply of goods has also decreased sharply. I have made three trips in the past month, but now it is good to have one trip."

　　While most of the small, medium and micro logistics companies are losing money, the heavy truck industry in the same industry chain has also been affected, and sales have declined.

According to the latest data from the China Automobile Association, the sales volume of heavy trucks in May was 49,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 69.6%.

　　"Since the second half of last year, the sales of heavy trucks began to decline." Li Long, a heavy truck dealer in Shandong Kuangshan Automobile World, told the "Securities Daily" reporter: "When sales were good in previous years, Jinan could sell about 1,000 units a month. Trucks, in April, sales plummeted to just 100 units."

　　As for the reasons for the decline in sales of heavy trucks, industry insiders believe that on the one hand, the demand has been overdrawn before, and on the other hand, it is affected by the downturn in the downstream logistics industry.

　　Zhang Xiaorong, president of Deepin Science and Technology Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily: "In 2022, truck drivers will face the dilemma of reduced supply of goods, soaring oil and gas prices, and falling freight costs. The problem of car loan repayment is precisely because of the industry. Revenue has plummeted, which in turn has led to a sharp drop in sales of new heavy-duty trucks.”

　　With the "13 consecutive declines" in the monthly sales of heavy trucks, heavy truck dealers are facing the test of survival.

Li Long said, "Now some large dealers can lose 1 million yuan a month, and small dealers also lose more than 100,000 yuan a month. If the current situation continues, after a year and a half, the dealers will It's hard to hold on."

　　Not only are the dealers having a hard time, but the entire heavy-duty truck industry chain is suffering from a "cold winter".

According to data from Oriental Fortune Choice, the revenue and net profit of seven listed heavy-duty truck companies, including Dongfeng Motor, all declined year-on-year in the first quarter of this year.

Similarly, the downstream road logistics industry is also relatively bleak. In the first quarter of this year, only 2 of the 7 listed road logistics companies saw profit growth, and 5 companies declined.

　　Actively self-help

　　In the eyes of industry insiders, heavy trucks are a strong cyclical industry, which will be affected by environmental protection policies, the overall economic environment and other factors, and are highly volatile. Currently, it is the trough of the heavy truck industry. The prospects are still promising.

　　Zhong Weiping, secretary-general of the Commercial Vehicle Professional Committee of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that from historical experience, every change of emission standards will have a significant sales benefit for the original emission standard models, while for the new emission standard models, the market has experienced a lot in the early stage. Greater wait-and-see mood.

　　In fact, the industry has predicted the decline of the heavy truck market after the National VI switch, and many companies have also taken corresponding countermeasures.

　　There are already a number of companies actively deploying overseas markets while consolidating their domestic market positions.

It is understood that from January to April this year, the monthly export volume of Sinotruk heavy trucks was 6,022, 6,031, 6,105 and 6,500 respectively, breaking the monthly export sales record for four consecutive months.

The company has recently put forward the goal of exporting 80,000 heavy trucks this year.

This target has increased by 60% year-on-year.

In addition, Foton Motor and SAIC Hongyan have also made breakthroughs in the international market.

　　For heavy truck dealers, it is even more important to ensure cash flow security by saving expenses.

Li Long introduced to the reporter: "Last year we rented a site for 400,000 yuan. When we renewed the lease in April this year, in order to save costs, we returned a site and saved more than 100,000 yuan."

　　The above-mentioned industry insiders believe that during the trough period of the industry, increasing income and reducing expenditure, reducing costs and increasing efficiency are important measures to effectively respond to the impact of the epidemic, enhance the ability to resist risks, and activate the endogenous energy for sustainable development of enterprises.

　　Manager Wang of Yongchang Logistics told the "Securities Daily" reporter that during the epidemic, by increasing the deployment capacity, improving transportation efficiency and effectively reducing the impact.

"Even when the epidemic was the most intense, we still had 18 vehicles sent to Shanghai every day, pulling the goods to the logistics warehouse near Shanghai, and then the vehicles in Shanghai would pick up the materials."

　　"It is expected that with the orderly advancement of policies and measures to ensure smooth flow, production, and people's livelihood in various places, the logistics market demand is expected to stabilize." The above-mentioned industry insiders believe that with the overall improvement of the prevention and control situation in some areas, the logistics industry that is hovering at the bottom has already signs of recovery.

　　In the eyes of industry insiders, the worst period for the heavy truck industry may be over, and industry leaders have also shown confidence.

On June 11, Weichai Power stated on the investor interaction platform that with the recovery of logistics and the increase in infrastructure construction, it is expected that industry demand will gradually improve.

　　Boosting the market can be expected in the future

　　In addition to the positive actions of enterprises, the government has introduced relevant policies to support the recovery of the industry.

　　In order to alleviate the difficulty of repayment of loans in the heavy truck industry chain, at the end of May, the State Council executive meeting decided that the 90 billion yuan commercial truck loans issued by the central automobile enterprises should be linked by banks and enterprises to postpone the repayment of principal and interest for half a year.

　　In this regard, Bai Wenxi, chief economist of IPG China, believes that the policy can be described as a "timely rain" to alleviate the heavy-duty truck loan repayment crisis and maintain the smooth operation of the logistics system.

　　An Guangyong, an expert from the Credit Management Committee of the All-China Mergers & Acquisitions Association, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily: "The heavy truck industry and the logistics industry are currently being hit hard, so from the national level, there should be enough efforts to support this group."

　　A heavy-duty truck dealer revealed to the "Securities Daily" reporter: "Many truck loans are loans from the financial companies or financial leasing companies of heavy-duty truck companies. Therefore, in order to solve the problem of repayment difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises, other heavy-duty trucks are needed. Businesses can give loan customers a deferral benefit.”

　　The reporter found that following the introduction of the above-mentioned policies, companies such as Foton Motor and Shaanxi Automobile Heavy Truck have also successively launched corresponding extension plans or care services to alleviate the problem of truck loan repayment.

　　Although the policy of deferring repayment has won a buffer time for enterprises, the overall recovery of the industry is still needed to fully solve the problem.

　　According to industry insiders, with the improvement of the country's vehicle emission indicators, the heavy truck industry will also transform to green and environmental protection, and there is still room for expansion in the future.

　　The above-mentioned heavy truck dealer told reporters: "At present, due to the bad market conditions, many National 5 vehicles, even National 4 vehicles that have been running for many years, are still running in large numbers. In the future, these users are potential customers who will replace the National 6. "

　　However, in order to replace more environmentally friendly heavy trucks, the cost problem has become a roadblock.

　　"We still look forward to a stronger support and subsidy policy to urge old users to replace the new National VI." Li Long told reporters that this "stock market" is still very huge. If the market recovers and the policy "combination" It is also expected to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the heavy truck industry.

　　In fact, some places have begun to make efforts in policy.

Recently, the reporter learned from the Jinan Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology of Shandong Province that in order to accelerate the recovery of the commercial vehicle consumption market, the Jinan Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology, the Jinan Municipal Finance Bureau and other five departments jointly formulated detailed implementation rules, from June 12 to June 30. , Buying commercial vehicles in Jinan City can enjoy car consumption subsidies ranging from 3,000 yuan to 6,000 yuan.

　　The above-mentioned industry insiders believe that, from the data point of view, in May 2022, although the overall sales volume of the domestic heavy truck market fell by nearly 70% compared with the previous year, it achieved an increase of 11.4% compared with April, which means that the market has gradually recovered. .

(Securities Daily)