• A divided ECB prepares to help southern Europe and avoid a new debt crisis

The message that the ECB

launched on Wednesday

(its intention to reinvest the debt of the pandemic purchase program in the debt of southern countries and the mandate to create an anti-fragmentation system) caused a decrease yesterday in the

yield that is required of the Spanish bond to 10 years

to 2.8%, but this Thursday morning it

picks up again to 3.03%.

The return that investors demand from a public debt security is higher the higher the

risk of default

or the more

uncertainty

surrounds the public finances of that country, hence an increase in yield is negative from the point of view of the image of Spain and also makes this method of financing more expensive for the State.

In addition, if there is an increase in the yield required of the Spanish bond and there is no proportional increase in the yield required of its German counterpart, the bund, there is a

rise in the Spanish risk premium

- which precisely measures this differential.

For the moment, however, the risk premium today falls 1.6% to

122.1 basis points

, since the

required return on the German bond has soared

more than 11%

this Thursday

, to 1.83 %.

As the yield of the German bond rises more than that of the Spanish, the risk premium even falls.

There have also been increases in the interest paid by the

10-year Greek bond

, which rises 3.2% to 4.36%, and in that of

Italy

, which rises 3.5% to exceed 4% .

This means that the announcement without details of the ECB

has not served for the moment to prevent the yield of the

sovereign debt of southern Europe from continuing to rise, although for now there have been no new increases in the risk premium.

Different analysts already warned after the emergency meeting held by the Governing Council that the reinvestment of the profits obtained with the debt of the pandemic purchase program (PEPP)

was not going to be enough

to contain an increase in the yields of the southern debt and also warned that the

internal division within the ECB would make it difficult to reach an agreement

to design a new anti-fragmentation system, above all because the countries with sound finances would demand

conditionality

.

Luis de Guindos

, Vice President of the

ECB

, wanted to launch a security message in an interview with the Greek media outlet

Ta Nea

, where he said that

"the markets should have no doubts about how determined we are to tackle fragmentation".

The members of the central bank are carrying out an exercise similar to the one carried out by

Mario Draghi in 2012,

when by promising to do "whatever it takes" (his famous "whatever it takes") he managed to calm the market without moving a single euro.

Now, however, the words of Christine Lagarde or Luis de Guindos

may not be as effective

as they were then.

The

markets

have also not been enthusiastic about the news from Frankfort and, above all, the decision of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates to 0.75 points, the highest increase since 1994.

The Ibex 35 it

leaves 1.56%

in the middle of the session and stands at 8,046 integers.

The Eurostoxx also fell (2.7%) and the German Dax 30 index (-2.9%).

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  • Luis de Guindos

  • USA

  • Christine Lagarde

  • Europe

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  • Crisis

  • Articles Alejandra Olcese