(Economic Watch) Has the decline in housing prices slowed down? Has China's property market bottomed out?
China News Agency, Beijing, June 16 (Reporter Pang Wuji) Positive signals have emerged in the Chinese property market.
The first is the slowdown in housing prices.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on the 16th, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China continued to decline in May, but the decline slowed down.
Among them, the new housing market showed signs of bottoming out.
Among the 70 cities in May, the number of cities with a month-on-month decline in new house prices began to decrease, and the average decline in house prices also narrowed.
In May, the number of cities with a month-on-month decline in new home prices decreased by 4, with the average decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points.
Among them, the first-tier cities rebounded the most, and the chain has rebounded for 5 consecutive months.
In May, the price of new houses in first-tier cities rose by 0.4% month-on-month, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
The month-on-month decline (-0.1%) in second-tier cities was flat, and the decline in third-tier cities also narrowed.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of the Shell Research Institute, pointed out that in May, the price of new houses in Shenzhen turned from a month-on-month increase, and the increase in Guangzhou increased month-on-month, which led to an increase in the overall month-on-month increase of new home prices in first-tier cities.
In addition, the month-on-month decline in new house prices in 35 third-tier cities narrowed, and the positive significance was more obvious due to its large market share.
The positive signs for housing prices were mainly driven by improvements on the transaction side.
According to official data, in May, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide increased by 25.8% month-on-month, and sales increased by 29.7% month-on-month.
This is the first month-on-month increase in commercial housing sales this year.
Supply-side indicators such as housing investment and construction also improved.
In May, the investment in real estate development and the area of new housing construction increased by 14% and 20% respectively month-on-month.
Xu Xiaole pointed out that the positive changes on the sales and investment side have led to a narrower month-on-month decline in prices.
How do you view the current real estate market?
Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, said frankly that the real estate market has been in a downward trend as a whole this year.
However, he pointed out that recently, various localities have stepped up the implementation of policy measures to stabilize the real estate market, and adopted various measures to effectively meet the reasonable housing needs of residents.
In addition, the reduction of medium and long-term loan interest rates for real estate and the reduction of residents' housing purchase burden are all conducive to the stabilization of the real estate market.
Judging from recent surveys, there have been some positive changes in the real estate market.
According to incomplete statistics from Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, in the first five months of this year, over 220 supportive property market policies were introduced in various regions, of which 99 policies were introduced in a single month in May, which is unprecedentedly frequent.
Moreover, the credit side has also ushered in new positives, and the lowest mortgage interest rate in various places can be reduced to 4.25%.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Planning Institute, pointed out that the implementation of the previous package of relief policies and the improvement of funds have a more significant pulling effect on purchasing power.
However, this effect is more pronounced in first- and second-tier hot cities, so the rebound in new home prices in first-tier cities has been the most significant in recent months.
The recent rebound in high-priced residential (luxury) transactions in first-tier cities has driven prices up.
Second- and third-tier cities have more room for policy relaxation (such as purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, sales restrictions, and taxes).
Zhang Bo, dean of the 58 Anju Room Property Research Institute, believes that the slowdown in housing prices in May means that the current property market is in the stage of bottoming and recovery, confidence is constantly recovering, and the most difficult time has slowly passed.
Although the overall situation is improving, Li Yujia pointed out that the current recovery path of the property market is not stable.
On the one hand, new or second-hand housing prices are still falling in most cities.
The number of new home inspections in hot cities has increased, but the conversion rate is relatively low, and many developers have to continue to cut prices.
On the other hand, second-hand housing prices fell more than new houses, which may lead to poor release of improved demand for “sell one and buy one”, thus dragging down the new housing market.
In the next step, Li Yujia believes that the recovery of the overall new housing market can only be started when the market heat rises from the luxury housing market and high-energy cities to the full market.
After the expected recovery, those who just need and change houses can choose more existing houses, which will drive the decline of the second-hand housing market to narrow or stop, thus forming further support for the recovery of the new housing market.
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