(Economic Watch) The recovery momentum is emerging. Can China's economy grow positively in the second quarter?
China News Service, Beijing, June 15 (Reporter Wang Enbo) After a number of indicators fell in April, the latest Chinese economic data for May showed new changes: most of the main indicators improved, and the national economy showed a recovery momentum.
The next question is: Will China's economy grow positively in the second quarter?
Since the beginning of May, with the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, China's economic operation is undergoing a transition from a shock to a gradual recovery.
The effect of ensuring the smooth flow of logistics has continued to appear, and the resumption of work and production of enterprises has been promoted in an orderly manner, resulting in a rebound in both the industrial and service industries.
In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.7% year-on-year, compared with a decrease of 2.9% in the previous month; the service industry production index decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous month.
The order of production and life has been gradually restored, coupled with the policy of stabilizing investment and promoting consumption, the market demand has gradually improved.
In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 6.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 4.4 percentage points from the previous month.
From January to May, fixed asset investment increased by 6.2% year-on-year, remaining basically stable.
With the accelerated resumption of work and production, some areas that were hit hard by the epidemic in the early stage are entering the "fast lane" of economic recovery.
In May, the year-on-year decline in the added value of industries above designated size in the Yangtze River Delta and Northeast regions both narrowed by more than 10 percentage points from the previous month.
Among them, the decline in industrial production in Shanghai and Jilin narrowed by more than 30 percentage points.
China's economy is gradually overcoming the adverse impact of the epidemic, with major indicators improving marginally, and the economy showing a positive momentum of recovery; however, it is far from the time to sit back and relax.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that the uncertainty of the current global economic development prospects is rising, and the Chinese economy is still facing many difficulties and challenges, especially the lack of aggregate demand, consumption is still weak, and employment pressure is high.
As he said, although the decline has narrowed, under the influence of the epidemic, the total retail sales of consumer goods has declined for three consecutive months.
The overall sales of major items showed that the required consumption continued to grow, while the optional consumption declined more, reflecting the current lack of willingness to consume.
In addition, offline consumption and service consumption are still greatly restricted.
Around the promotion of consumption, China is continuing to make moves recently.
In addition to distributing consumer coupons in many places, relevant departments are stepping up research on policy measures to stabilize and expand automobile consumption, and fiscal and financial policies have become more active and precise.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, predicts that the epidemic prevention and control situation will further improve in June, and the constraints on consumption, especially offline consumption will continue to weaken. In addition, after Shanghai and other places return to normal life order, some of the backlog of consumer demand will be released. It is expected that social zero will continue to improve.
However, he also reminded that in the future, it is necessary to focus on solving the problem of insufficient consumption power caused by the decline in the growth rate of residents' income under the impact of the epidemic.
After experiencing the impact and the gradual recovery process, how the economy will develop in the second quarter will be critical in June.
Wen Bin believes that in the next stage, we must continue to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control, intensify efforts to boost domestic demand, do a good job in bailouts for difficult areas, industries and people, increase support for employment, and make market players reverse their expectations as soon as possible. , enhance confidence, and keep the economy operating within a reasonable range.
In the face of internal and external pressures, on the basis of the original policies and measures to stabilize growth, the State Council of China has recently issued a further package of policy measures to stabilize the economy, including 33 specific measures in 6 areas. Various localities have also actively introduced various measures to stabilize the economy.
Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, said that these measures are expected to take effect gradually in June, which will promote economic stability and improvement.
Judging from the recent situation, the effective implementation of the large-scale tax rebate policy has played a positive role in alleviating the operating pressure of enterprises.
At the same time, financial support for the real economy has been continuously increased, and the capital situation of enterprises has been improved.
Wang Qing predicts that with the further effect of the policy of stabilizing growth, the macro data in various aspects will further pick up in June, the leading role of investment will still be prominent, the year-on-year growth rate of social zero is expected to turn positive, and the growth rate of industrial production will further accelerate.
Fu Linghui said that on the whole, if the epidemic can be effectively controlled and various measures to stabilize growth are implemented, China's economy is expected to achieve reasonable growth in the second quarter.
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