The medium-term strategy of brokerages is optimistic about the short-term rebound in the second half of the year or the end

Sun Xiangfeng/Watchmaking Zhou Jingyu/Drawing

  Securities Times reporter Sun Xiangfeng

  Recently, a number of brokerages have held mid-term strategy meetings or released mid-term strategies.

At yesterday's Bank of China Securities' 2022 mid-term strategy meeting, Xu Gao, chief economist of Bank of China Securities, said that the peak of the domestic epidemic has passed, and the upward trend in economic sentiment will bring support to A shares.

The company's chief strategist Wang Jun believes that the fundamentals are easing internal worries, no fear of external threats, the liquidity environment and monetary easing tone have not changed, internal and external repressive factors have eased, A shares have ushered in the gold allocation stage in the late recession, and the marginal improvement of growth stocks gradually manifest.

  Recently, Huatai Securities, CICC and other securities companies have released medium-term strategies, looking forward to the market conditions in the second half of the year.

Brokerages generally believe that A-shares are not pessimistic in the second half of the year, and that the risk premium built by domestic and foreign risks has already appeared at the end of April. The current valuation of the Chinese stock market is at a low level in the historical range, and it has mid-line investment value.

However, in the short term, since the market rebounded from the end of April, the main indexes have generally risen, and the short-term correction pressure has increased.

Many analysts believe that the rebound may have come to an end.

  optimistic about the second half of the market

  At the above meeting, Xu Gao said that the peak of the domestic epidemic has passed, but there is still a high degree of uncertainty in the future.

The demand for stable growth of the domestic economy is urgent, and the employment issue needs special attention. The policy of stabilizing growth should continue to exert force, and the investment in infrastructure will be further increased and become the main starting point for the current stable growth.

  Externally, the impact of the U.S. withdrawal from quantitative easing monetary policy is gradually emerging, and the liquidity crunch effect may have an impact on the market.

For the investment prospects of major asset classes in the second half of the year, the domestic bond yield has reached the bottom, and the equity investment will bring support to A shares with the upward economic boom.

Cycle, real estate infrastructure, finance and consumption are the allocation directions, and the high point of commodity price growth has passed.

  In terms of foreign exchange, the trend of the US-China interest rate gap indicates the depreciation pressure of the RMB. However, after the "811" exchange rate reform in 2015, the situation of my country's private foreign exchange assets and liabilities has been greatly improved, which has brought resilience to the RMB exchange rate.

  Wang Jun believes that the improvement of the capital market depends on the improvement of the real economy, which is a consensus that should be reached.

The bottom of the A-share market does not come from emotions and gaming transactions, but is based on the top-down judgment of the macro economy, that is, from the perspective of cycle positioning, the bottom of the economy is judged through the logic of leading indicators such as policies and interest rates, and then the inflection point of the capital market is judged.

  "For the domestic macro-economy, monetary liquidity continues to be loose, and favorable policies to boost the economy continue to increase. It is highly probable that real GDP bottoms out in the second quarter." Wang Jun said that similar to the situation in 2009 and 2020, the actual The bottoming out of GDP and the continuous decline of PPI have given the A-share market a very "comfortable" macro environment, and market profits and valuations are expected to be restored in the second half of the year.

  Huatai Securities also stated in its mid-year strategy report released recently that the general trend of A-shares in the second half of the year is not pessimistic.

The environment of internal stagnation and external inflation is the macro-combination with the greatest pressure as a manufacturing power, and the risk premium top constructed by it has already appeared at the end of April.

Looking at the end of the year, A-shares are expected to usher in three stages of rising levels: the first stage is from May to the mid-term report season, and the shock rebounds to the pre-epidemic shock level in Shanghai; the second stage is the mid-term report season to October. Enter the reversal market; the third stage is the release of market elasticity after October.

  Looking ahead to the market in the second half of the year, Ping An Securities pointed out that in the second half of the year, A-shares will usher in a growth-led structural upswing.

Ping An Securities believes that the current market valuation has returned to below the historical average, the growth valuation is more flexible, and the stock-bond income ratio shows that it has entered the medium and long-term allocation range.

  However, CICC is relatively cautious.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, CICC said the market environment so far in 2022 has been more challenging than expected at the beginning of the year.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, overseas transactions will transition from "stagflation" to "how to get out of stagflation", and China is striving for "steady growth" in the prevention and control of the epidemic.

In the second half of the year, the internal and external environment of the market may still face certain challenges, and the upside needs more positive catalyst support.

  Growth sectors receive more attention

  From a configuration point of view, Huatai Securities recommends grasping the major marginal changes after the second quarter and the degree of existing logical transactions.

The pressure on the U.S. bond discount rate has peaked and the profit distribution pressure on the industrial chain has peaked. The current industrial cycle, inflation structure, and loose real estate stock prices have low implied expectations. Therefore, midstream manufacturing is the first choice, and essential consumption is second-best.

In subdivided varieties, combined with bottom-up logic, midstream manufacturing considers machinery, electronics, automobiles, electronics and military industries.

  Ping An Securities focuses on inflation, low-carbon economy and digital economy.

The first is the inflation sector, that is, the more flexible thermal coal, petroleum and petrochemical, energy metals, shipping, agrochemical, and pig sectors; the second is the low-carbon economy, that is, the new energy industry chain and the new energy vehicle industry chain; the third is the digital economy, That is, the intelligent automobile industry chain and intelligent manufacturing.

  On the plate, Wang Jun believes that the excess returns of optional consumption and technology growth are obvious.

On the one hand, it is attributed to the elasticity of economic demand; on the other hand, it is the growth trend of leading industries.

  "This round of technology market may not reproduce the underperformance of growth stocks after the closing of the stable growth window in 2015. The high economic growth of midstream manufacturing agglomeration is expected to maintain a relatively high level of relative profitability in the second half of the year. Combined with the squeezed valuation in the first half of the year With sufficient pricing for pressure and earnings downgrades, growth stocks have returned to the starting line and are ready to go." Wang Jun said.

  Short-term or enter the tail end of the rebound

  Yesterday, A shares showed a V-shaped reversal.

From the intraday low on April 27, the Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded by 425.25 points, a rebound rate of 14.85%, and the ChiNext Index has rebounded by 20%.

  After the rapid and powerful rebound, institutions tended to be cautious about the short-term market.

Northeast Securities believes that social financing has exceeded expectations to increase earnings and stabilize expectations, overseas tightening expectations have resumed, risk appetite is neutral, and the rebound has entered the tail market.

  Specifically, Northeast Securities believes that credit and social financing rebounded beyond expectations in May. Although the structure is still deviated, it is likely to increase economic growth and corporate profit expectations; from the repair experience in 2020, the growth rate of this year's interim results will be further Downside, but clearly differentiated.

At the same time, under the pressure of overseas inflation, interest rate hikes are expected to resume, and domestic liquidity remains relatively loose under the pressure of maintaining growth. The current return of foreign capital and settlement funds exceeds 66 billion yuan and 167 billion yuan respectively, and the return of emotional funds is obvious.

The Fed's interest rate hike and geopolitical conflicts still suppressed risk appetite, and social financing exceeded expectations and the policy of maintaining growth further supported market sentiment.

  In terms of industry configuration, Northeast Securities recommends focusing on computers, media, building materials, securities companies, military industry, electronics, and some consumption that make up and oversold repairs.

In the second half of the rebound, the main logic is to make up and repair oversold. It has entered the tail market, and the big finance, TMT, consumption, etc. that have not risen may be repaired.

  A research report released by Shanxi Securities a few days ago believes that the marginal improvement in fundamentals and trading is difficult to support the further upward reversal of A shares, and the market outlook will deduce structural market conditions in the shock.