Sino-Singapore Jingwei, June 15th (Wang Yongle) What is the price trend in various places in May?

A few days ago, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the May 2022 consumer price index (CPI) of 31 provinces.

China-Singapore Jingwei combing found that in May, the year-on-year CPI growth rate in 13 provinces was higher than that of the previous month, and the growth rate in 12 provinces was lower than that of the previous month.

Among them, the highest in Shanghai was up 4.6%, and the lowest in Xinjiang was only 1.1%.

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　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in May 2022, the national CPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month and rose by 2.1% year-on-year, the same year-on-year increase as the previous month.

　　China-Singapore Jingwei combing found that the CPI of 31 provinces increased year-on-year in May, with 10 and 16 provinces with increases higher or lower than the national level, respectively, and 11 and 17 in April.

In addition, different from the collective expansion of the increase in April, the increase in May was higher than that of the previous month by 13 provinces, and the increase was lower than that of the previous month by 12 provinces.

　　Specifically, 10 provinces, including Shanghai, Shanxi, Qinghai, Zhejiang, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Guangdong, Anhui, Beijing, and Jiangsu, had higher growth rates than the national level. The growth rate was the same as the national level; Hubei, Jiangxi, Hebei, Tianjin, Sichuan, Hunan, Gansu, Fujian, Tibet, Henan, Chongqing, Shandong, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hainan, Xinjiang and other 16 provinces rose lower than the national level, of which Xinjiang CPI during the year Entered the "1 era" for the first time, and remained in the "0 era" for four consecutive months.

　　In addition, CPI in 13 provinces including Tibet, Yunnan, Guangxi, Shanghai, Hubei, Sichuan, Guizhou, Heilongjiang, Beijing, Hunan, Gansu, Xinjiang, and Henan recorded a year-on-year increase higher than the previous month, of which Tibet increased by 0.5 percentage points; Shanxi, Qinghai , Hebei, Guangdong, Liaoning, Shandong, Zhejiang, Anhui, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Jilin, Jiangsu and other 12 provinces increased lower than the previous month, of which Jiangsu decreased the most by 0.6 percentage points.

　　Deng Haiqing, chief investment officer of AVIC Fund, pointed out that the overall CPI in May was slightly lower than expected, the overall service industry was relatively weak, and the non-food inflation was still around the median month-on-month.

The core reasons for the lower-than-expected CPI are three aspects: First, the freight logistics congestion was cleared, and freight costs decreased, which reduced the cost of food transportation; second, the abundant rain caused vegetable prices to drop by 15% month-on-month, which was higher than the same period in history; Third, the increase in supply has led to the reduction of stockpiling behavior. The price of eggs increased by 1.4% month-on-month, returning to the low month-on-month level in recent years.

What is the future trend of CPI?

　　Judging from institutional forecasts, it cannot be ruled out that "lard resonance" will push the CPI up moderately.

　　Huaan Securities predicts that the June CPI may rise slightly to around 2.3% year-on-year.

According to the latest forecast, affected by the rising pig prices, the high oil price, and the gradual recovery of consumption after the epidemic, the CPI will gradually rise year-on-year. It may break 3% in the third quarter, and the peak will be in September. about.

　　Deng Haiqing said that the following points may cause hidden worries about inflation: on the one hand, pork prices have rebounded, and pork prices in May rose by 5.2% month-on-month, seasonally falling in recent years. On the other hand, an important reason for suppressing CPI in May One is the lack of consumption, but after the consumption rebounded in the following months, it formed a pull on the CPI.

　　Zhao Wei, chief economist of Sinolink Securities, said that the risk of CPI inflation may accelerate, and the high point in the third quarter may rise to around 3%, and the possibility of breaking 3% cannot be ruled out.

The restart of a new round of pig cycle, superimposed on high oil prices, etc., does not rule out the possibility of "lard resonance"; the pressure on the cost side will continue to become dominant or lead to the release of "compensatory" pressure; some grain prices that are highly dependent on imports may also increase Become another pusher to promote the release of inflation risk.

　　According to the analysis of the Pacific Securities Research Report, the current international geopolitical conflict has not been resolved, the international energy and food prices are high, and the external imported inflationary pressure still exists.

The recovery of pig prices may slow down the previous drag on CPI by pig prices.

The progress made in my country's epidemic prevention and control has eased the previous price increase caused by the imbalance between supply and demand caused by transportation obstruction and supply chain disruption, and the effect of measures to stabilize prices and ensure supply has gradually emerged. It is expected that the upward pressure on the CPI in June will ease from the previous month.

Combined with the 0.4% increase in the CPI tail-raising factor, the CPI in June is expected to increase by about 2.2% year-on-year.

(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)