Zhongxin Finance, June 14 (Reporter Zuo Yukun) "It is expected that in 2022, the national real estate market will show a steady decline in the growth rate of sales area, a slight increase in the average sales price, a continuous decline in the newly started area, and a significant drop in the growth rate of investment." characteristics."

　　On June 14, in the "Blue Book of Real Estate: China Real Estate Development Report (No.19·2022)" jointly released by the National Future City Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the China Society of Real Estate Appraisers and Realtors, and the Social Sciences Literature Publishing House , made the above judgment.

　　Looking back on 2021, the Blue Book pointed out that the sales area of ​​commercial housing nationwide was 1.794 billion square meters, a slight increase of 1.9% from 2020, and a further narrowing of the increase from 2.6% in 2020.

As a result, the increase in the area of ​​commercial housing for sale also turned from negative to positive, the first increase since 2016, and the increase in the area of ​​commercial housing for sale across the country also expanded compared with the increase in 2020.

Image source: "Blue Book of Real Estate: China Real Estate Development Report (No.19·2022)"

　　However, with the improvement of the credit environment at the end of 2021 and the relatively loose credit line in the first quarter of 2022, in 2022, under the premise of adhering to the goal of "housing and not speculating", "support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing of buyers." Demand" will be a theme throughout the year.

The Blue Book predicts that the real estate transaction market will gradually recover in 2022.

　　Specifically, it is expected that on the basis of the completion of the bottoming of the transaction volume in the first quarter, the transaction price in the second quarter will stop falling; the second-hand housing market will be launched first, and the demand for housing replacement will be accelerated into the new housing market, which will drive the bottoming of the new housing transaction volume to rebound and sales The acceleration of end-to-end decentralization has eased the financing pressure of real estate enterprises, the turnover efficiency of real estate enterprises has returned to normal, the pressure on capital liquidity has been substantially eased, and the confidence in land acquisition has gradually recovered to drive the restoration of the land market.

　　From the perspective of policies, for the demand side, future policies may be adjusted and optimized in the aspects of first-home determination standards, transaction taxes, and talent purchases to facilitate the release of demand; on the supply side, on the premise that the basic principles of "three lines and four grades" remain unchanged The margins of real estate financing policies may be relaxed, and there is room for adjustment in the registration and bidding rules for centralized land supply, as well as the price limit for new houses.

　　Under the relatively stable real estate policy, the Blue Book predicts that the growth rate of the sales area of ​​commercial housing for the whole year will decline, with an increase of 1.7%; the growth rate of real estate development investment will decline, with an increase of 0.8%, and the residential development investment will turn from positive to negative, down 0.2%; In the case of rising land prices, the average sales price will maintain a slight increase, with an annual increase of 2.8%.

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