Securities Times reporter Zhang Da
Since the central government deployed a package of measures to stabilize the economy, various implementation plans have been introduced intensively, and many of the implementation plans involve real estate policies.
According to incomplete statistics from Securities Times reporters, as of June 9, 16 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) issued a package of implementation plans for stabilizing the economy that specifically mentioned real estate policies.
In just 9 days in June, 41 places issued various policies to stabilize the property market, which was far more intensive than in April and May.
Industry insiders interviewed by Securities Times reporters believe that the previous package of policies has formed a superposition effect, and the current national real estate data show signs of improvement, indicating that the overall market trend is improving.
Since June, the real estate policy has been embedded more into the package of policies to stabilize the economy. The relevant cities are already in the stage of policy fermentation and digestion, and the conditions for the bottom rebound of the real estate market are becoming more and more mature, which will better stabilize the macroeconomic market.
Many provinces promote housing consumption to stabilize economy
Since the executive meeting of the State Council on May 23 deployed a package of measures to stabilize the economy, and put forward “city-specific policies to support rigid and improved housing demand” in real estate, the promotion of housing consumption has been taken as one of the important measures to stabilize the economy in many places. The implementation plan proposes a housing support policy.
According to incomplete statistics from Securities Times reporters, as of June 9, 16 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) issued a package of implementation plans for stabilizing the economy that specifically mentioned real estate policies, including reducing the down payment ratio, adjusting the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate, increasing the Provident fund loan amount, issue housing subsidy, adjust second-hand housing transaction tax, etc.
Among the first-tier cities that have received much attention, Beijing proposes to adhere to the principle of "housing and not speculating", to ensure rigid housing needs, to meet reasonable needs for improved housing, and to stabilize land prices, house prices, and expectations; Shanghai proposes to improve real estate policies and support Rigid and improved housing needs.
In terms of credit policy support, Qinghai, Henan, Guizhou, Jilin, etc. clearly proposed to reduce the down payment ratio. Among them, Henan clearly proposed that the down payment ratio of commercial loans for the first purchase of ordinary housing in cities without purchase restrictions can be reduced to 20%.
Guizhou also proposed to appropriately reduce the down payment ratio for the purchase of a second home.
Jilin also said that if there is a house and the loan has been settled and the ordinary house is purchased again, the loan policy for the first house will be implemented; the down payment ratio of the first provident fund loan is 20%, and after the first loan is settled, the provident fund loan can be applied again, and the minimum down payment ratio is 30% .
Xinjiang proposed that the down payment ratio of second-hand housing provident fund loans should be reduced to 20%.
In terms of mortgage interest rates, Hebei, Jilin, and Xinjiang all clearly proposed that the lower limit of the commercial loan interest rate for the first home should be adjusted to not lower than the loan market quotation rate (LPR) of the corresponding term minus 20 basis points.
Heilongjiang also proposed to adjust the lower limit of the commercial loan interest rate for the first home.
In addition, Guizhou, Anhui, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Zhejiang all proposed to increase the loan amount of housing provident fund.
In addition, Henan also proposed that various localities should issue house purchase vouchers, house purchase subsidies, deed tax subsidies, etc. to support the purchase of housing by talents and the reasonable housing needs of urban and rural residents; Provide appropriate support; Yunnan proposed to increase support for new citizens to buy houses; Xinjiang also adjusted the transaction tax on second-hand houses, and taxpayers can declare personal income tax at 1% of the transaction price or 20% of the difference between the transaction prices.
In addition to housing support policies, many places have also proposed support policies for housing companies.
As Shanghai proposed, it is allowed to defer or install the payment of the land transfer price; optimize the land transfer conditions, reasonably determine the starting price of residential land, and reduce the proportion of self-owned commercial office space.
Hebei, Anhui, Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Gansu all proposed to support the reasonable loan demand of housing enterprises; Jilin, Yunnan, Gansu, Xinjiang, and Ningxia all proposed measures to optimize the supervision of pre-sale funds.
The conditions for the bottom rebound of the property market continue to mature
In fact, not only has the policy of stabilizing the property market been put forward in the implementation plan for stabilizing the economy, but since May, the intensity, scope and frequency of the loosening of real estate policies in various places have been significantly expanded. Especially in June, the intensity of policy loosening has far exceeded that in May.
According to incomplete statistics from Securities Times reporters, in the first 9 days of June alone, 41 places issued various policies to stabilize the property market. Among them, 4 places eased purchase restrictions, 1 place suspends the implementation of sales restrictions, and 6 places propose housing purchase subsidies , 27 places have adjusted the provident fund loan policy, and many places have lowered the down payment ratio and lowered the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate.
The Securities Times reporter noticed that compared with the previous "standard" reduction of down payment ratio and increase of the maximum loan limit, among the new policies on provident fund loans introduced since June, Chaozhou and Zhuhai in Guangdong, Shaoyang in Hunan, Ziyang in Sichuan, Qinhuangdao in Hebei, etc. A down payment withdrawal policy has been added here, that is, to support myself and my immediate family members (spouse, parents, children) to withdraw the provident fund to pay the down payment or the purchase price of a house, and implement the “one-person house-buying family help”.
In this regard, Yang Hongxu, deputy director of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Times that it is an innovation of local provident fund policy to allow immediate family members to withdraw provident funds to support the purchase of a house, in order to enhance the purchasing power of local residents and make the precipitation funds better to function.
The real estate industry has a large scale, a long chain and a wide range of coverage, which has an important systemic impact on economic and financial stability and risk prevention.
Since the end of April, the central government has delivered important signals of stabilizing real estate at important economic-related meetings on many occasions.
Regarding the impact of a series of real estate stabilization policies on stabilizing the economy, Yang Hongxu believes that only after the real estate market recovers will it play a role in stabilizing the broader economic market.
Judging from historical experience, it takes half a year to a year and a half to transmit from policy introduction to market rebound.
But because this time the property market is the lowest in recent decades, like a seriously ill patient, his recovery will take longer.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Planning Institute, told the Securities Times reporter that the purpose of this round of property market policy measures is to reduce costs, increase expectations, and improve everyone's purchasing power. For stabilizing the economy, property market policies are only one aspect, another On the one hand, it includes support for provident funds and social security payments for industries seriously affected by the epidemic, as well as support for people's consumption, such as consumer coupons. After the intensive release of these package measures, the effect of policy superposition will gradually form, so that the market can truly Get better.
Regarding the next policy expectations, Yang Hongxu believes that the policy space for the property market will become smaller, because many cities have greatly loosened restrictions on purchases and sales, including provident fund policies, mortgage policies, housing subsidies, etc., and even some local governments should The policy is basically over.
In the future, strong second-tier cities still have room to continue to relax, including the down payment ratio and interest rate reduction, etc. In addition, there is still a lot of room for developers to loosen financing.
Li Yujia further pointed out that the previous package of policies has formed a superposition effect, and the property market transactions in hot core cities have rebounded in May. Now it is a policy observation period, and it is no longer possible to issue stimulative policies on a large scale.
As the market rebounds from hot cities and second-hand housing, it is necessary to observe whether the scope of the market recovery will expand, including whether non-hot cities, new housing markets, and just-needed housing demand can all rebound.
According to Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, the current national real estate data shows signs of improvement, indicating that the overall market trend is improving.
Since June, the real estate policy has been embedded more into the package of policies to stabilize the economy. The relevant cities are already in the stage of policy fermentation and digestion, and the foundation for the bottom rebound of the real estate industry has been maturing, which will better stabilize the macroeconomic market.