(Economic Watch) China's economic data will be released in May, a number of leading indicators are showing positive changes

　　China News Service, Beijing, June 12 (Reporter Wang Enbo) China's economic data for May will be released soon.

Affected by factors such as the epidemic, many of China's major economic indicators declined in April. Whether various sectors can stop falling and stabilize this time will largely determine the economic trend in the second quarter.

　　Judging from some leading indicators that have been announced by various parties recently, the situation is undergoing positive changes.

　　The sluggish credit data in April made the market worry that the lack of demand may drag down China's economic performance in the future.

But the latest financial data for May lessened those concerns.

　　During the month, key indicators such as the scale of new RMB loans, the scale of social financing, and the growth rate of broad money (M2) balances all exceeded market expectations.

Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that this reflects the implementation of monetary and financial policies to implement a package of stable growth policy requirements, increase credit supply, and show the transmission effect of loose money to loose credit.

　　Due to the large increase year-on-year in May, in the first five months of this year, China's RMB loans increased by 10.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 232.6 billion yuan.

　　However, Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, reminded that there are still structural concerns about credit data.

Under the background of the gradual easing of the epidemic situation and the successive introduction of a package of policies, the financing willingness of the real economy has recovered, and the financing motivation has increased significantly.

However, it is worth noting that corporate financing is still mainly based on short-term funds, and the phenomenon of "charging loans with bills" is still prominent, and the need for funds to be used for short-term relief is obvious.

　　The boom in exports was an important "contributor" to China's high economic growth last year.

The complex internal and external environment superimposed a high base effect. In April, China's total import and export value increased by only 0.1% year-on-year.

　　But in the past May, foreign trade orders came back.

The total value of China's imports and exports in the month increased by 9.6% year-on-year.

Among them, the export growth rate reached 15.3%, and the import also increased by 2.8%, both much better than the previous month.

　　Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, said that in May, the impact of the domestic epidemic on imports and exports was significantly reduced, and the production and logistics environment of enterprises improved. The backlog of foreign trade orders started to be shipped one after another, and the superimposed RMB exchange rate depreciated. , the export situation has improved significantly, and the import has also picked up.

　　The CITIC Securities report also pointed out that from the perspective of container throughput of China's eight major hub ports, the year-on-year growth rate of foreign trade container throughput in the first, middle and late May was 1.7%, 7.2%, and 13% respectively, showing a state of rapid repair.

　　But this "outbreak" does not mean that foreign trade is worry-free.

Zhong Zhengsheng said that from the breakdown of data, the demand of overseas developed economies is still falling, and the production capacity of other export-oriented economies is recovering, and China's export market share is facing downward pressure.

　　Wang Shouwen, Vice Minister of Commerce of China and Deputy Representative of International Trade Negotiations, emphasized that while closely monitoring foreign trade operations, all localities and relevant departments should introduce some local support measures in light of the actual situation, so as to improve the efficiency of policy implementation and enable foreign trade enterprises to Under a series of uncertainties, we can achieve stable growth and improve quality by enjoying policy dividends.

　　In addition, as an important leading indicator reflecting economic trends, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Economic Index (PMI) rose to 49.6% in May from a low base level in the previous month.

Meanwhile, the service sector activity expectations index also rose to a higher level of 55.2%.

　　A series of positive signs made the market more optimistic about the recovery of data in May.

Cheng Qiang, chief macro analyst at CITIC Securities, for example, said that in the first three weeks of May, the retail sales of passenger cars at the Passenger Car Association increased by 34% month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline narrowed by 19 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that household consumption activities are gradually recovering, and other consumption Also similar.

It is expected that the total retail sales of consumer goods in May will show a significant month-on-month improvement, and the decline in the year-on-year growth rate will also further converge.

　　According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, as of mid-May, the national hydropower generation had increased by 19.3% year-on-year, and the amount of water that could be generated by key hydropower plants had increased by 25.5% year-on-year, said Zhang Yu, assistant director of the Huachuang Securities Research Institute and chief macro analyst.

Combined with the hydropower situation, the growth rate of power generation data in May may turn positive.

In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the relevant data showed that the industrial economy showed signs of stabilization and improvement. It is expected that the industrial added value in May may be slightly better than market expectations.

　　On the whole, many institutions believe that China still faces multiple challenges in stabilizing the economic market.

But looking back, with the significant easing of the epidemic in Shanghai, Beijing and other places, the policy implementation is more conditional, and the economy is expected to enter the improvement channel.

(Finish)