On the 10th, the central bank released May financial data showing that the increase in social financing scale was 2.79 trillion yuan, 839.9 billion yuan more than the same period last year.

The balance of broad money (M2) was 252.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%.

The balance of narrow money (M1) was 64.51 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%.

Renminbi loans increased by 1.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 392 billion yuan.

  A number of chief economists interpreted it for the first time and pointed out that under the active force of the policy, the financial data in May exceeded expectations, and the substantial growth in social financing indicated that the economy had entered a recovery channel.

  Mingming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, told Sino-Singapore Jingwei that the growth rate of credit and social financing in May was higher than market expectations, mainly due to the positive efforts of policies.

  Yang Chang, chief analyst of Zhongtai Securities, believes that the financial data in May has three characteristics: first, government bond financing drives social financing, and the contribution of local government special bonds to social financing has expanded for 9 consecutive months; second, residents' medium and long-term loans The year-on-year growth has decreased for 6 consecutive months, but the rate has narrowed slightly. Whether it can show the inflection point of the real estate sales side is worth paying attention to; Expectations of a rate cut remain.

  Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that the financial data in May shows that the effect of loose money on credit is showing, but the growth of medium and long-term loans for enterprises and residents is not satisfactory, indicating that the financing needs of the real economy are still weak.

  Data show that the increase in social financing scale in May was 2.79 trillion yuan, 839.9 billion yuan more than the same period last year.

From the point of view of the increment of social financing in a single month, it exceeds the level of November and December last year. Why is there a substantial increase?

  Mingming's analysis believes that there are three main reasons: first, the increase in RMB loans year-on-year; second, the financing amount of government bonds increased significantly; third, the financing amount of corporate bonds also increased year-on-year.

  Zhao Wei, chief economist of Sinolink Securities, pointed out that social financing exceeded expectations mainly due to the support of credit and government bonds, and other sub-items did not change much.

In May, RMB loans increased by 1.82 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 390 billion yuan year-on-year, government bonds increased by 1.06 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 390 billion yuan year-on-year, and the two together contributed 93% of the year-on-year increase in new social financing. %.

  At the end of May, the stock of social financing was 329.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%.

Yang Chang believes that the stock of social financing has expanded for nine consecutive months, which also reflects the important role of local government special bonds in stimulating social financing.

Since local government special bonds account for a certain proportion of infrastructure investment, reflecting the financial support for infrastructure, with the gradual restoration of personnel flow, the actual progress of infrastructure projects is expected to accelerate.

  From the perspective of personal credit, Mingming pointed out that "the increase in RMB loans by more than 300 billion year-on-year is mainly due to the enterprise side. The main components of the enterprise side are short-term loans and bill financing, so the overall credit structure still needs to be further improved. From the perspective of residents, short-term loans are basically flat, but medium and long-term loans are still less than the same period last year.”

  Data show that in May, M1 fell by 0.5 percentage points to 4.6%, and M2 rose by 0.6 percentage points to 11.1%.

  Zhao Wei believes that the decline in M1 may reflect the relative lack of motivation for corporate activation; in the deposit category, resident and corporate deposits increased by 630 billion yuan and more than 1.22 trillion yuan year-on-year, non-bank deposits decreased by more than 526 billion yuan, and fiscal deposits decreased year-on-year. , or related to tax rebates, accelerated fiscal spending, etc.

  Mingming said that from the data on the deposit side, the growth rate of M2 is still relatively high, returning to more than 11%. It should be said that the effect of tax reduction and fee reduction is still relatively obvious.

  Looking forward to the future, Mingming believes, "Considering that the policy is still very positive throughout June, including the issuance of government bonds will be relatively concentrated, and credit growth will remain stable, so we believe that the financial data in June will remain relatively stable. higher level."

  Zhao Wei said that as the impact of the epidemic gradually subsided, the worst stage of the economy has passed.

In addition to continuing to reduce costs to stimulate demand, measures such as actively digging new project reserves, promoting consumption, and stabilizing real estate are already on the way, and follow-up measures such as expanding effective investment still need to be followed up.

  Wen Bin said that in the next stage, it is necessary to further implement the requirements of a package of stable growth policies, vigorously boost effective demand, optimize the credit structure, focus on promoting medium and long-term credit growth, accelerate the improvement of expectations, boost confidence, and promote the economy to stabilize and recover as soon as possible. within a reasonable range.

(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)