Zhongxin Finance, June 10 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 10th, in May, the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation improved, and the consumer market was generally adequately supplied, and the national consumer price (CPI) remained stable year-on-year.

CPI rise and fall chart.

from the National Bureau of Statistics

Year-on-year CPI growth in May was unchanged from the previous month

　　According to Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, from a year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose by 2.1% in May, the same increase as the previous month.

Among them, food prices rose by 2.3%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase of about 0.42 percentage points.

　　"The increase in food prices hit a new high since October 2020, making a major contribution to the rise in the CPI." said Wen Bin, chief researcher at China Minsheng Bank.

　　The specific data shows that among the food, the prices of fresh fruits, potatoes and grains rose by 19.0%, 16.1% and 3.2% year-on-year respectively, and the increase was larger than that of the previous month; In the last month, they fell by 12.4 and 1.9 percentage points respectively; pork prices fell by 21.1% year-on-year, and the decline was 12.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month.

　　"According to estimates, in the 2.1% year-on-year increase in May, the impact of last year's price changes was about 0.8 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about 1.3 percentage points." Dong Lijuan said that the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, was year-on-year. It rose 0.9%, the same increase as the previous month.

　　"From a base point of view, the year-on-year CPI increase in May last year was close to the monthly peak, forming a relatively high base, which played a certain role in the flat CPI increase." Wen Bin said.

Pork section of a vegetable market in Fengtai District, Beijing.

Photo by Xie Yiguan, a reporter from China-Singapore Finance and Economics

Pork and flour prices rose month-on-month, while vegetable prices fell

　　From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI has changed from an increase of 0.4% in the previous month to a decrease of 0.2%.

Among them, food prices changed from an increase of 0.9% in the previous month to a decrease of 1.3%, affecting the CPI to drop by about 0.24 percentage points.

　　Dong Lijuan introduced that in the food, with the large number of fresh vegetables on the market, the logistics has gradually been smooth, and the price of fresh vegetables has dropped by 15.0% month-on-month; the central reserve pork purchase and storage work continues, and the effect of reducing the production capacity of live pigs has gradually emerged, and the price of pork has increased by 5.2% month-on-month; Affected by the high international grain prices, the domestic prices of flour, grain products and edible vegetable oil rose by 0.8%, 0.8% and 0.7% respectively month-on-month.

　　According to the reporter's observation, the price of pork has risen in recent months. In a vegetable market in Fengtai District, Beijing, the price of the front and rear tips of pork, which was 13.8 yuan per pound in late April, has risen to 15.8 yuan on May 30.

In addition, the price of vegetables has dropped significantly. "The cucumbers I bought recently were only 2 yuan per pound, and broccoli, bitter gourd, and peppers are also cheaper than before." A resident of Beijing's Haidian District told reporters.

　　In addition, among non-food items, domestic gasoline and diesel prices both rose 0.6% month-on-month due to fluctuations in international oil prices.

　　According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, as of the end of May, domestic refined oil prices ushered in the ninth increase in the year, and 92 gasoline in some places entered the "9 yuan era".

Citizens buy fresh vegetables.

Photo by Zhang Hengwei

What will the follow-up CPI trend look like?

　　The reporter combed the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and found that the average purchase price of live pigs and the average ex-factory price of white strips of pig slaughtering enterprises above designated size in the country have risen for 11 consecutive weeks.

　　Tan Yiming, chief analyst of fixed income at Minsheng Securities, believes that in the future, pork prices will stabilize and rebound. Under the balance of supply and demand, crude oil prices are expected to continue to face less upward pressure. The subsequent CPI may rise moderately. It is expected that the CPI from June to July will be 2.4% year-on-year, 2.5%.

　　Since the beginning of this year, the global new crown pneumonia epidemic has superimposed the influence of the situation in Ukraine, international commodity prices have fluctuated at a high level, and major economies around the world have faced greater inflationary pressures. Monthly CPI has hit a multi-year high.

　　For example, Hungary’s CPI in May rose by 10.7% year-on-year, hitting a new high since 2001; South Korea’s May CPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, hitting a new high in nearly 14 years; the euro zone’s inflation rate in May reached an annual rate of 8.1%, a record high.

　　"At present, my country's inflation level is generally controllable." In Wen Bin's view, it is necessary to make good use of the time window when the current inflation is relatively moderate and the tightening policies of developed countries are less constrained to ensure that the economy maintains a reasonable growth in the second quarter.

At the same time, we must continue to ensure stable supply and prices, ensure food production, and prevent imported inflation risks.

(Finish)