Ukraine is the fifth wheat exporting country in the world.
Exports made very difficult due to the Russian invasion, and in particular the blockade of the Black Sea, which deprived the country of its main export channel.
However, Ukraine must do everything to export its wheat, otherwise its crops will rot, raising fears of famine episodes across the planet.
It's a crisis within a crisis: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to disrupt the wheat sector.
The two Nations represent respectively the first and fifth largest exporters in the world in this field, accounting for approximately 30% of world sales.
Problem for kyiv: following the Russian invasion, its precious cereal can no longer leave the borders.
On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky estimated that between 20 and 25 million tonnes of grain was currently blocked in the territory due to the war, a volume that could reach 75 million tonnes by autumn. .
By way of comparison, France consumes an average of 15 million tonnes per year.
Traditionally, Ukrainian wheat goes through the Black Sea.
"Ukraine is lucky to have deep-water ports, like Mariupol or Odessa, which made exports easy," says Jean-Jacques Hervé, president of the French Academy of Agriculture.
Mariupol, Odessa… If you follow the news of the conflict, you know that these cities were the targets of the Russians and that maritime traffic is now impossible there.
"Very quickly, Russia sought to seize Ukrainian ports and imposed a blockade in the Black Sea," recalls Samantha de Bendern, researcher in the Russia-Eurasia department at the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House).
sea and peace
As a result, nothing leaves Ukraine by sea, its main pre-war export channel.
Is right.
First, maritime transport capacities are disproportionate to those on land.
Jean-Jacques Hervé for the quick count: "A truck can take a few tons at most, a freight train 180 tons, a boat 5,500 tons".
Secondly, most of the countries that buy wheat from Ukraine are far from being reachable by land: Egypt, Maghreb, Somalia, Lebanon, which justifies the sea route all the more.
"The objective is now to go no longer by sea, but by land", depicts Clément le Fournis, co-founder of AgriEconomie.
The railway track is favoured, again for reasons of simplicity: more tonnage, fewer vehicles and fewer men needed.
The wheat would thus pass through Europe, which would then redistribute it through its ports, far from any Russian blockade.
Limited overland route
The perfect plan?
Not really, because the solution runs into several big problems.
“The size of the rails is not the same between Ukraine and its European neighbours, particularly Poland,” says Samantha de Bendern.
As a result, the grain must each time be taken out of the Ukrainian train, put back on a European train, and the same process for a ship afterwards.
As you will have understood, "it's slow, complex and expensive", concludes the expert.
For Clément le Fournis, “moving Ukrainian wheat only by train requires logistics that were absent until now.
Thus, according to Samantha de Bendern, only 20% of maritime transport could be covered by land, in particular because of the tonnage.
And by truck, it's just as complex, because the roads are very often bombarded.
The kyiv School of Economics estimates that 23,800 kilometers of roads have been totally or partially demolished, as well as 295 bridges.
According to the Ukrainian Grain Producers Association (UGA), grain and oilseed production is expected to reach 66.5 million tonnes this year, of which 30 million tonnes will be exported.
But because of the maritime blockade, this figure could drop to 12 million tons, showing all the limits of land routes.
But what to do with all that wheat?
Still, wheat does not store infinitely, worries Dorota Dakowska, professor at Sciences Po Aix and specialist in Central and Eastern Europe.
“Especially in Ukraine, which has absolutely no means of storing the millions of tonnes of wheat produced,” she adds.
Concern is mounting as the next harvest looms.
According to the Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture, 80% of agricultural land still belongs to the country.
But if the wheat can't leave the borders, it rots.
"It's a famine on a global scale that is currently playing out," recalls the political science researcher.
Also on Monday, the head of American diplomacy, Antony Blinken, accused Russia of stealing and reselling Ukrainian wheat.
"Russia also has many deep-water ports and has control of the Black Sea, so it has a clear path for its exports," says Jean-Jacques Hervé.
Especially since ethical questions could quickly dissipate: “It's an essential resource, moral dilemmas have no place.
This is the catastrophic scenario: that Russia plunders Ukrainian wheat and resells it only to its favorite partners, uses the sales to finance the war, or as a weapon of diplomatic pressure to lift the sanctions”, fears Dorota Dakowska.
The train, with a few more efforts
So boom!
We are rolling up our sleeves and trying to extirpate this Ukrainian wheat by all means.
Russia and Turkey are currently in discussions to set up "secure maritime corridors" in the Black Sea.
But kyiv has not been invited to the table, and the outcome seems very uncertain for the time being.
So back to the trains.
"Customs duties have been suspended between Europe and Ukraine in particular in order to facilitate trade", informs Clément le Fournis: "The Vingt-Sept are targeting 20 million tonnes of wheat exports by land, mainly by Poland ".
Admittedly, the solution is expensive, increasing the price of wheat,
but it is a vital resource – so countries will buy – and “grain has become so expensive since the start of the conflict that the extra cost of rail logistics doesn't make much difference.
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A bold but necessary bet for Jean-Jacques Hervé: “Either Europe waits for the Black Sea to free itself, if it does one day, or it takes matters into its own hands and strongly reinforces its rail traffic.
It is an ecological transport in tune with the times.
Thus, the European Union is getting stronger, taking its destiny into its own hands and saving several countries from famine.
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War in Ukraine: Washington considers "credible" that Moscow "steals" Ukrainian wheat "to sell it"
World
With the war in Ukraine and the Covid-19, 250 million new people risk extreme poverty
Economy
War in Ukraine
Wheat
Export
Russia
Famine
Mariupol
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