Zhongxin Finance, June 10 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) On June 10, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May. Many institutions predict that the year-on-year increase in the CPI in May may drop slightly.

Year-on-year CPI growth in May may drop slightly

　　In April, affected by factors such as the domestic epidemic and the continuous rise in international commodity prices, the year-on-year increase in the CPI expanded significantly, returning to the "2 era" after many months.

CPI rise and fall chart.

from the National Bureau of Statistics

　　What will be the year-on-year increase in CPI in May?

According to the monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in May, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.68 yuan/kg, an increase of 11.7% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 26%; the average wholesale price of vegetables was 3.8 yuan/kg, a month-on-month decrease of 22.4%, a year-on-year increase. 8.8%.

　　In a vegetable market in Fengtai District, Beijing, a reporter from China-Singapore Finance recently noticed that the price of pork front and rear tip was still 13.8 yuan per pound in late April, but it had risen to 15.8 yuan per pound on May 30.

　　"The average price of pork in May was 20.7 yuan/kg, an increase of about 11.1% month-on-month. Considering the price level in the same period last year, it is expected that the drag of pork prices on the CPI in May may be further reduced." CITIC Securities pointed out.

　　"However, since some key cities in my country were still affected by the epidemic in May, offline and contact-type consumer demand was weak, and related services and commodities did not have the basis for price increases. At the same time, considering seasonal factors, vegetable prices weakened month-on-month. It will drag down the upward rate of CPI.” CITIC Securities predicts that the overall CPI in May will remain in a moderate range.

　　According to the statistics of Flush iFinD, the average forecast of 20 institutions for the year-on-year increase of CPI in May is 2%.

If the above average forecasts are fulfilled, the year-on-year increase in CPI in May will drop slightly.

Data map Photo by China News Agency reporter Tomita

Prices are expected to remain stable in the later period

　　Into June, pork prices continued to rise.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from May 30th to June 5th, the average purchase price of live pigs in designated slaughtering enterprises of live pigs above designated size was 16.50 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%; the average ex-factory price of white strips was 21.69 yuan. Yuan/kg, up 0.3% month-on-month and down 8.6% year-on-year.

　　A reporter from Zhongxin Finance and Economics found that the average purchase price of live pigs and the average ex-factory price of white strips have risen for 11 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of 21.23% and 18.2% in the 11 weeks.

　　"Based on two major factors, such as the repairing rise in pork prices and the expected rise in crude oil prices, the CPI for the whole year was slightly revised up to 2.2% year-on-year." Qin Tai, chief macro analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan, pointed out.

　　Since the beginning of this year, the global new crown pneumonia epidemic has superimposed the influence of the situation in Ukraine. International commodity prices have fluctuated at a high level. The prices of energy, grain and mineral products have risen rapidly. Major economies around the world are facing greater inflationary pressures, and monthly CPI has hit multi-year highs.

　　Qin Tai believes that the overall weak domestic consumer demand and the stronger resilience of industrial resumption of work and production mean that my country's CPI growth rate will continue to be significantly lower than that of developed countries, and monetary policy will not form passive tightening pressure due to excessive CPI.

The peak of this round of CPI rise may appear in September, and it is expected to reach 3.2% year-on-year. Since then, it has declined since the fourth quarter and fluctuated around the center of 2.0%.

　　Meng Wei, a spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission, also said at a recent press conference that in the later period of the outlook, my country's economy will be resilient, the market space will be large, and the policy toolbox will be abundant, especially in grain production. , fully qualified, capable and confident to continue to maintain stable prices.

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