(Finance and Economics) Will the crisis of multi-country power supply be repeated?

  China News Agency, Beijing, June 8 (Liu Wenwen) In 2021, a snowstorm that has never happened in a century will sweep across the United States, causing the "heart of energy" Texas to be overwhelmed and the power grid to be paralyzed.

Now, with the arrival of the summer vacation in the northern hemisphere, the "power shortage" is sweeping again, and the power supply of many countries is in a hurry. Will the crisis repeat?

Power supply in many countries is in emergency

  The U.S. power department predicts that multiple regions may have to rotate outages as demand for electricity surges as the U.S. suffers record heat and drought this summer.

  The situation in Japan is also not optimistic.

Due to the increase in the number of outages of old thermal power stations and the impact of the Fukushima earthquake in March this year, Japan's power supply has become tense. For this reason, the Japanese government has proposed power saving requirements for the first time in seven years.

  India is facing the most serious power crisis in recent years due to continuous heat waves in many places.

  Europe, which is already in an energy crisis and is trying to get rid of Russian energy, is looking for available coal worldwide in order to avoid an "electricity shortage".

  Worried about energy shortages, Ukraine is taking precautions.

On the 7th local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that this year Ukraine will experience the most complicated winter since independence.

To prepare for heating, Ukraine will suspend exports of natural gas and coal to meet domestic supplies.

  At present, the global power grid is facing a test.

Many experts analyzed and pointed out that the "energy shortage" behind the global "electricity shortage" cannot be ignored.

Traditional energy supply is tight

  The data shows that in 2021, the global coal-fired power generation will reach an all-time high, and the overall coal consumption will be about 7.9 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%.

Global coal-fired power generation may hit a record high in 2022 as the economy rebounds to support global coal demand, the International Energy Agency reported.

  Corresponding to the ever-increasing demand is a limited supply.

On the one hand, countries are committed to promoting energy transition, resulting in insufficient investment in traditional energy.

On the other hand, affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia's energy production and export have been greatly hindered.

  Su Baoliang, chief analyst of China Merchants Securities Transportation, pointed out that the marginal impact of the current epidemic has gradually weakened, the global resumption of work and production has accelerated, and energy demand has rebounded significantly.

Due to joint sanctions by European and American countries, Russia's natural gas exports have been greatly hindered, and natural gas prices have risen globally.

As an alternative energy source for power generation, the tight supply pattern of coal will remain unchanged in the short term, and the peak summer will bring about stronger electricity demand, and the global coal price will remain high.

  CICC’s point of view points out that due to the impact of the geopolitical conflict, the European Union and other places plan to stop purchasing Russian coal and turn to other regions for imports, but it is difficult to meet the demand in the short term, resulting in the tightening of global coal supply and demand, and the further rise in coal prices.

Renewable energy remains weak

  It is worth mentioning that when the traditional energy is in serious shortage, the renewable energy is rising.

Ember, an independent think tank of energy and environment, released the report "Global Electricity Review", stating that, as the fastest growing power sources, in 2021, the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the total global power generation will exceed one tenth for the first time, reaching 10.3%, a new record. 's record.

  However, despite the rapid development of renewable energy, it is still weak in the face of "electricity shortage".

According to the 2022 edition of Tracking Sustainable Development Goal 7: Energy Progress Report, 733 million people worldwide still lack access to electricity and 2.4 billion people still use fuels that are harmful to health and the environment to cook.

It is estimated that 670 million people will still have no access to electricity by 2030.

  According to the analysis, the current shortage of traditional energy, combined with the natural instability and weak energy density of renewable energy, has greatly affected the ability to ensure energy supply, and power supply is at risk.

  Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and sanctions against Russia by Western countries have caused the world to face a triple crisis of oil, gas and electricity at the same time.

"It will be bigger and longer than the crises of the 1970s and 1980s." (End)