The
International Monetary Fund
(IMF) published on Tuesday its
recipes against inflation
and, specifically, the fiscal policy guidelines that governments must follow to combat the effects of rising
energy
and
food
prices on the economy and the society.
Its recommendations are very far from the measures approved in Spain
to date and, in many cases, even go in the opposite direction.
"
Fiscal policy
plays a crucial role in
mitigating the impact on the most vulnerable households.
Governments must strike a balance between ensuring access to energy and food,
normalizing their fiscal policy
after the unprecedented expansion they carried out in 2020 and
promote the green transition
", points out the institution headed
by Kristalina Georgieva.
Although it contemplates specific circumstances for each country, it includes the councils in three groups based on the level of development and the coverage of its social protection system.
Spain
would be among the countries with a
strong social protection network
, to which the IMF recommends
five
specific guidelines that have not been met in our country.
In the first place, they ask that the countries
let prices rise
and that the increases in the international market be transferred to the internal market.
This means, in practice, that
the Fund does not recommend approving price caps
, such as the one that the Executive intends to apply in our country on the price of
gas
.
“Countries must allow the increase in international fuel prices to be fully transmitted to domestic users.
Price signals are crucial
to induce demand responses. In the case of energy, the demand response can be (...) In contrast, food is a staple that takes a larger fraction of the income of the poor and may be less price elastic, therefore
priority should be given to ensuring affordable access to food.
staple foods,
especially when food security is a concern," they explain.
In his opinion, high energy prices will encourage "
more efficient use
" and
greater investment in renewable energy
, both of which are desirable.
"Measures aimed at preventing domestic prices from adjusting are costly, displace productive spending and reduce incentives for producers," he maintains.
Second, they believe that countries should provide
direct aid
, temporarily, in the form of transfers
to the most vulnerable households
, a request that is in line with others that have been launched by organizations such as the Economic and Social Council.
The Government, for the moment, has not announced any subsidy of this type to alleviate the impact of inflation on the most vulnerable families.
"Countries with strong social safety nets could use
targeted and temporary cash transfers
to mitigate the impact on
low-income and vulnerable groups
. They can identify eligible households to better target aid and deliver it efficiently (. ..)", they point out.
They also warn that it is preferable that this aid is not proportional to their level of energy or food consumption, to prevent the measure from distorting their behavior and, with it, prices.
They further suggest that governments grant "
refundable tax credits
" to the most vulnerable households.
Avoid coffee for everyone
The third piece of advice from the IMF is that countries avoid generalized aid for the entire population, as could be the case of Spain with the
bonus of 20 cents per liter of fuel
that has been in force since April 1, and that benefits equally to high and low incomes.
"By crossing information on household income with information on their bills, governments can offer
flat-rate discounts to
those
below a certain income threshold
. These fixed benefits are
preferable
to benefits proportional to bills ."
, since they are
more progressive and less distorting
", they point out.
Only if the social protection systems are not enough, the IMF recommends smoothing the energy consumption bill or applying discounts, but in both cases it proposes
to focus the aid on the most vulnerable.
This body is not in favor of
generalized tax cuts either.
In Spain, the 7% tax on cogeneration is suspended, the VAT tax rate on electricity for consumers with less than 10 kW of contracted power was lowered to 10%, and the Special Tax on electricity was cut to 0.5%. Electricity, the minimum authorized by the EU.
All these measures will be in force until the 30th of this month and could be extended during the summer.
"In general,
it is not advisable to reduce taxes on energy and food
. Given the prevalence of ad valorem taxes (such as VAT or excise duties), rising prices and relatively lower demand elasticity imply that In many countries
, tax revenues will rise when energy and food prices rise
. These additional tax revenues
can be used to provide targeted support to vulnerable households
."
Despite the fact that the opposition has asked the Government to
lower VAT or deflate the IRFP rate
, there have been no measures in this regard for the moment and
the IMF advises against them
because they are not progressive and would cut State revenue.
"
A general reduction in taxes implies a relief for everyone,
including the most affluent households, and supposes the
loss of important income
when it is most needed", they stress, in addition to believing that in order to continue combating the negative effects of pollution generated by the fuel use, fuel taxes must continue to rise.
Finally, the IMF is also opposed to applying taxes on
windfall profits,
which in Spain have been
reduced
for hydraulic, nuclear and wind power plants from before 2013.
"The increase in energy prices and the profits of some energy companies has led to new calls for taxes on profits fallen from the sky. However,
these taxes could discourage investment and be counterproductive
, "warns the IMF.
In addition, they ask that countries use
resources efficiently
and
strengthen international cooperation
to ensure global energy and food supplies.
Examples of good and bad practices
The IMF reviews in its report the measures that have been approved in some countries to contain the impact of inflation in a focused way to
relieve the most vulnerable.
This is the case of
Latvia
, which has approved a
monthly aid for the elderly and disabled
(20 euros) and
families with children
(50 euros);
or from
Germany,
where a one-time payment to vulnerable families of
100 euros per child
and other one-time payments to
recipients of social benefits
have been approved .
In the
Philippines
, unconditional cash transfers of 500 pesos (about 9 euros) per month have been announced to
the poorest 50% of households
(about
12 million families
) for six months starting in April 2022;
while
Poland
has approved means-
tested benefits
(from 400 to 1,438 zlotys; 88 to 314 euros per household) for
the poorest households
, in order to offset rising energy prices.
On the income side,
the measures approved
in the most advanced economies are generally
farther from
the IMF recommendations, as is the case in Spain.
For example, there have been reductions in VAT in
Italy
or
Belgium
or in excise duties in
France
,
South Korea
and
New Zealand
.
France
has given
subsidies to distributors
to reduce gasoline prices;
Estonia, Luxumburg and Slovakia
have announced measures to
reduce electricity prices;
and
Lithuania
, which has announced that it will raise the income threshold
free of taxation in personal income tax.
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