• The Real Estate Observatory of Provence publishes a prospective study for the next three years, denouncing in particular the lack of building permits granted by the city of Marseille.

  • The elected official in charge of town planning calls on promoters to file more rigorous files and in good standing with the local inter-municipal urban plan.

  • According to the OIP, it will be necessary at the end of 2024 for a household to earn 56,000 euros annually (instead of 41,300 euros currently) to hope to acquire a T3 in the new.

    Many will thus be excluded from this market, move to the old one or remain rented and de facto aggravate the tensions on the whole of real estate.

That's called putting a good push on.

The prospective study by the Real Estate Observatory of Provence (OIP) for the next three years "is not optimistic, and that's an understatement", says Christian de Bénazé, one of its authors, who goes as far as to conjure up the image of "real estate yellow vests".

"In new buildings, prices will continue to soar, which will exclude thousands of households from the metropolis", he warns local authorities, and more particularly elected officials who issue building permits.

In detail, in 2021 it was necessary for a household to accumulate 41,300 euros in annual income to buy a new home.

At the end of 2024, according to data compiled by the OIP, this same couple will need to earn 14,700 euros more over the year to hope to acquire said accommodation.

The OIP is then counting on a price per square meter of 6,300 euros per square meter for new buildings, or a 28% increase.

In the space of three years, the proportion of solvent households to buy a new T3 thus fell from 51% to 30%.

In other words, 40,000 households will no longer be able to access the new real estate market to buy an apartment by this date.

And 25,000 households for individual houses.

The failed will buy in the old, which remains cheaper even if the OIP anticipates in Marseille a price of 2840 euros per square meter in three years (an 8% increase), or will leave to stay on the outskirts.

Some, too, will abandon their project.

“For an attractive metropolis, you need housing”

“People who can no longer buy new properties push back those who can buy old properties, who will themselves push households towards the rental market, and at the end of the chain there is social rental, which we know about the metropolis that there are already eight years of waiting", breathes Christian de Bénazé, president of the prospective commission of the OIP.

“This situation is socially damaging because households no longer have the freedom to choose their accommodation,” he adds.

"For the metropolis to remain attractive and not lose inhabitants, you need to have housing, Provence is resting a little too much on its laurels, but there are other attractive territories, like the Côte Atlantic", launches Arnaud Bastide, the president of the OIP.

The phenomenon of exclusion from the real estate market is not, however, specific to Marseille and its region, and must also be linked to the rise in construction costs, not to mention rising interest rates and new inhabitants. which are further upsetting the relationship between supply and demand, with an effect on prices.

"60% refusal of building permits in 2021"

The OIP, while offering a range of solutions such as a VAT bonus for building municipalities or encouraging taxation for modest first-time buyers, also points to more local responsibilities.

“In Marseille there was 60% refusal of building permits in 2021, when the average refusal is between 15% and 20% in large cities, loose Arnaud Bastide.

If we do not produce, this has repercussions on prices!

“According to him, “of the 5,000 annual dwellings provided for by the local intermunicipal urban plan in Marseille, we are in 2021 on 2,000 permits obtained.

»

For Mathilde Chaboche, deputy mayor of Marseille in charge of town planning, “the total number of permit refusals is indeed too high”, even if she disputes the rate announced by the OIP.

“We refuse them because they are illegal, so we have no choice”, she reacts, encouraging the actors to file rigorous files “which respect the new PLUI and the risk prevention plans.

"This will avoid wasting everyone's time and we will be able to continue the revival of construction together," adds the elected official.

This is also called being sent back into one's nets.

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