New EU sanctions against Moscow provoke a "fire of revolution" in the global economy, and the EU's refusal of Russian oil risks turning into an acute shortage of fuel in Europe.

This was announced on Monday, June 6, by Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev.

“Europeans will have to scour the world in search of raw materials of the same quality.

In doing so, they will face a shortage of certain types of fuel, such as diesel, which is needed for trucks and agricultural equipment.

And they know that they will still have to find gray schemes to get our raw materials, somehow pay for it, bypassing their own idiotic sanctions, ”Medvedev wrote in his Telegram channel.

Recall that at the end of May, the European authorities, after long negotiations, agreed on a new, already sixth package of anti-Russian sanctions.

The restrictions were approved on June 3 and include, among other things, a partial ban on the import of oil and oil products from the Russian Federation.

It is noteworthy that the restrictions apply only to sea supplies, while the pumping of Russian raw materials to the EU through pipelines will continue.

Moreover, the approved sanctions should not finally enter into force immediately, but only after six to eight months.

“There is no way to immediately abandon our oil.

Their own citizens and businesses can put up against the wall.

Therefore, we decided to stretch the project for several months,” Medvedev explained.

  • © RIA Novosti / Grigory Sysoev

Note that even before the embargo on oil supplies from Russia, the cost of motor fuel in the European market began to grow noticeably.

Thus, since the announcement of the first package of anti-Russian measures at the end of February 2022, gasoline prices have increased by 17.6% on average in the EU, to €2.01 per liter (about 131 rubles), and diesel by 16.7%, to €1.86 (about 121 rubles).

Such data are contained in the materials of Eurostat.

As Dmitry Medvedev noted, in connection with the increase in fuel prices in Italy, truckers are already on strike, and Poland and Hungary have blocked the entry of foreign cars.

At the same time, Warsaw refused to supply raw materials to Ukraine for free and will now only sell them.

As fuel prices rose, the overall annual inflation rate in the eurozone accelerated to 8.1%, the highest level on record.

UN specialists, in turn, call the current situation a shock for the European economy and do not exclude the possibility of a recession in many countries of the region.

A similar state of affairs with fuel prices today can be observed in the United States, which at the beginning of spring announced the rejection of Russian oil.

Over the past three and a half months, a liter of gasoline at gas stations in the country has risen in price by an average of 31% - to a record-breaking $1.22 (more than 74 rubles), as evidenced by data from the US Department of Energy.

According to the latest estimates of the US Department of Labor, the annual inflation rate in the United States in March rose to 8.5% for the first time in 40 years, but dropped to 8.3% in April.

However, already in the summer the country may face a new wave of price increases due to the onset of the automobile season and increased demand for fuel during this period.

Alexey Fedorov, an analyst at the TeleTrade Group of Companies, shared this opinion with RT.

“In June-July, ordinary Americans and Europeans are waiting for an even stronger surge in inflation.

Given the suicidal policy of the West to break the supply chains of raw materials from Russia, there are simply no other options.

Even if in the United States, where a huge amount of energy is extracted and produced, fuel prices set new records almost every week, what can we say about the EU countries, where there are no such capacities and opportunities,” Fedorov noted.

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  • © Malte Ossowski / SVEN SIMON

"Through detours"

As Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia, told RT, problems in the energy industry in the US and the EU began back in 2021.

Then, against the backdrop of falling investment in the development of new infrastructure and the development of deposits in the West, the shortage of hydrocarbons began to grow.

At the same time, the European authorities relied on green energy and actually forbade companies to invest in oil and gas projects.

It was assumed that the transition to renewable energy sources would reduce oil and gas prices, but this did not happen, Yushkov said.

Western sanctions against Russia have only exacerbated the situation, as the already formed shortage of raw materials in the markets of the United States and the European Union only began to intensify, Igor Yushkov stressed.

According to him, Europe has begun to actively buy oil from Africa and the Middle East, but the cost of these supplies is now much more expensive for the EU due to higher logistics costs.

“At the same time, Russia is increasing oil exports to India, which produces diesel fuel from it both for itself and for the European market.

Thus, Russian oil products still get into the EU, but through roundabout ways and at a higher cost,” explained Igor Yushkov.

In turn, the United States, in order to combat rising prices, began to sell oil from strategic reserves, but this program will end soon, and Washington will again have to buy raw materials abroad at high prices, Yushkov said.

As a result, according to the expert, the cost of fuel at American and European gas stations will continue to grow in the foreseeable future.

All for yourself

It is curious that in Russia, meanwhile, prices for motor fuel are moderately declining.

According to Rosstat, since the end of February, a liter of AI-92 in retail has fallen in price by an average of 0.78% - to 47.24 rubles, a liter of AI-95 - by 0.62%, to 51.31 rubles, and a liter of diesel - by 0.84%, up to 54.44 rubles.

As experts explain, in the face of external restrictions, Russian oil companies have become more active in supplying energy raw materials to the domestic market instead of the EU and the USA.

Thus, even against the background of growing fuel consumption in the country, the volume of fuel supply still remains sufficient, which puts pressure on prices.

“It can be said that the excess volume of fuel that is now causing a decrease in prices in Russia is one of the most important reasons why fuel prices in the EU and the USA are growing rapidly,” Alexey Fedorov stressed.

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A similar point of view in an interview with RT was expressed by the first vice-president of the all-Russian public organization of small and medium-sized businesses "Support of Russia" Pavel Sigal.

According to him, the reorientation of supplies to the domestic market is beneficial not only to consumers, but also to the fuel companies themselves in terms of logistics costs.

In addition, analysts attribute the decline in gasoline prices to the effect of the damper.

As part of the mechanism, the state reimburses oil companies for lost revenues when supplying fuel to the domestic market.

If domestic fuel prices are lower than export prices, producers receive compensation from the federal budget.

With a higher cost of raw materials on the domestic market, companies, on the contrary, deduct part of their profits to the treasury.

According to Alexei Fedorov, if the current conditions remain the same, the oversupply on the Russian fuel market will remain in the coming months.

As a result, retail prices will continue to remain close to current values.

So, according to the expert's forecast, AI-92 fuel on average in Russia will be traded in the range of 46.5-47.7 rubles per liter, and AI-95 gasoline - in the corridor of 51-52 rubles per liter.