Zhongxin Finance, June 5th (Zuo Yukun) Sisters, it's time to pick up the wool again, the golden wool of "618"!

  It's the mid-year shopping season again, and many "gold-buying girls" have already started "doing their homework" early.

After the boom during the Spring Festival, gold consumption has entered a relatively quiet stage.

When the shopping festival arrives, will it ignite the market again?

Data map: People buy gold jewelry in shopping malls.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Lv Ming

"Buy Gold Girl" is online

  The post-95 girl Lin Ying (pseudonym) is still a newcomer to buy gold.

The first time I came into contact with gold was when I got a coupon for full gold reduction in the shopping software, so I tried to buy a 30-gram gold bar at a price of 399 yuan per gram.

  "This is my first time buying gold, and the price isn't cheap. But after I bought it back, I took a bite and tried it. The faint teeth marks were still golden. It looked really enjoyable!" Lin Ying said, she has since then "Into the pit".

  "Because I am in Shenzhen, I recently got 500 minus 150 consumer coupons, and superimposed some gold coupons that I squatted and grabbed, and I managed to grab a single 1-gram gold note." Lin Ying introduced to Zhongxin Finance and Economics It is said that the original price of more than 500 yuan of gold notes cost only 370 yuan, and the gold price on that day was 410 yuan / gram, which is more cost-effective.

  The "618" shopping festival is approaching, and girls like Lin Ying who like to buy gold are active on social platforms again, sharing their homework and strategies with each other, and laughing that they "let Chinese aunts succeed."

In their view, the price of grams + labor is higher than the market price and can not even be called "homework".

  Just when more and more people complained about the shopping festival's full reduction algorithm and too many merchants' routines, the girls who bought gold went against the trend, and the more the shopping festival came, the more "braced".

Lin Ying explained: "The price of gold changes every day, and the price is relatively transparent. Compared with other products, it is easier to have a routine such as a sudden price increase before the festival. It is relatively safe to buy."

  But before the bustling shopping festival, the gold market also experienced a lot of twists and turns.

A gold jewelry store in Beijing.

Photo by Zuo Yukun of China News Service

Pandemic disrupts gold consumption

  If you are not happy, save some gold.

In Benming year, you need to buy gold to "press a pressure", to pay wages to buy gold to "reward you", and to buy gold to "remember" important days... The gold boom has quietly spread among younger groups.

According to data from the China Gold Association, in the first three quarters of 2021, the actual consumption of gold in the country increased by 48.44% year-on-year.

  But the market changed in the first quarter of 2022.

The latest statistics from the China Gold Association show that

in the first quarter of 2022, the actual consumption of gold in the country was 260.26 tons, a decrease of 9.69% compared with the same period in 2021

.

Among them: 168.86 tons of gold jewelry, down 0.19% year-on-year; 69.62 tons of gold bars and coins, down 27.71% year-on-year.

  "Benefiting from the release of consumer demand and the shopping boom in the Spring Festival, Lantern Festival and Valentine's Day, gold jewelry consumption remained strong from January to February. However, with the rise in gold prices in March and the repeated outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in some parts of the country , the consumption of gold jewelry was greatly affected, and the overall consumption in the first quarter was pulled down." The China Gold Association explained the reasons for the decline in consumption.

  "The impact of the epidemic is indeed relatively large, especially the wave of epidemics in March." Mr. Yu, who was engaged in the gold and jewelry business in Shenzhen Shuibei, recalled to Zhongxin Finance and Economics that the country's largest wholesale gold and jewelry market was still in mid-March because of The business has been suspended for a week due to the epidemic, and the management is usually stricter, requiring a 24-hour nucleic acid negative certificate.

  "When the business was suspended, I also packed some products and took them home to take pictures, but the conditions were poor and they didn't look good, and supporting services such as packaging and braiding became a problem. The shopping mall is free of rent, reducing some losses." Mr. Yu said.

  In addition to bringing challenges to wholesalers and retailers, Mr. Yu believes that the epidemic has a greater impact on the reduction of people's desire to consume.

"After all, gold jewelry is still a non-essential item. Under the epidemic, everyone is reluctant to take out the money."

  Mr. Yu mentioned that the innovative Shuibei people also optimistically designed a pure gold necklace pendant, engraved with the popular "greeting words": one side is "nucleic acid has been done", and the other side is "the test result is negative for 24 hours" , and many people like it.

  "As the epidemic is effectively controlled, the long-suppressed consumer demand for gold jewellery may be released in the short term; expectations of inflationary pressure and low yields may support investment demand for gold." World Gold Council China District CEO Wang Lixin believes that.

Data map: Before Valentine's Day in 2022, consumers shop in gold jewelry stores.

Photo by Zuo Yukun of China News Service

Gold prices remain high

  In addition to the impact of the epidemic, the high price of gold has also hindered many people from buying gold.

  "A friend who also likes to buy gold shared with me how she sold jewelry at RMB 359/gram and RMB 372/gram during the 'Double 11' last year. I even thought it was a bit expensive at the time, but I can buy it at RMB 390/gram this year. It's a good price if it's gram." Lin Ying said.

  Mr. Yu also said that the price of gold this year has risen a part compared to last year.

"The average retail sales last year was about 370-380 yuan/gram, and this year, most of them are about 400 yuan/gram. The fluctuations during the year are not too big."

  According to data from the World Gold Council, in the first quarter of 2022, gold continued to rise after rising in the previous quarter, with a final increase of 8%, closing at $1,942 per ounce at the end of March, the best quarter since the second quarter of 2020. Performance.

  "Since late April, with the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, the real interest rate of U.S. bonds has continued to rise, and the price of gold has shown a rapid decline." Xia Yingying, a metal analyst at Nanhua Futures, said that investors generally have a psychology of buying up and not buying down, which in turn leads to gold prices. Enthusiasm for investing has declined.

  "But this year, the Fed's monetary policy is expected to be tight and then loose, and the impact of interest rate hikes on the economy will gradually appear. The general decline of major assets in the early stage of liquidity contraction will gradually be transformed into optimal allocation of funds, and increase in the avoidance of precious metals. In view of the preference for risk assets, the demand for gold is still expected to rise in the second half of the year." Xia Yingying believes.

  "Nominal interest rate risk still exists, but inflation and geopolitical risks may continue to support gold's safe-haven attributes." The World Gold Council also believes that, coupled with the possibility of synergistic positive fluctuations in bonds and stocks, investment trends are likely to continue to shift to alternative assets transfer, which also presents an opportunity for gold.

  "We often say that there are two time points not to buy gold, one is the '11' holiday, because many people choose to get married at this time, which is basically the most expensive in a year; the second is the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the price is also more expensive, relatively In terms of the price in the first half of the year, the price is more suitable, and the gold price has indeed declined recently." Mr. Yu also believes that after this wave of epidemic control is stabilized, gold consumption will usher in a rebound.

(Finish)