But how high can inflation rise in France?

• And this is a new record in France since 1985 for inflation, with a price increase of 5.2% over one year in May.

• A rise in prices which has been going on for months and which does not seem to be about to stop, far from it.

• The purchasing power of the French will take a price for a time, it is understood.

  But how far?

If "coronavirus" was the inevitable and monomaniacal theme in 2020 and 2021, inflation is on track to be the hit of the year 2022. A well-placed hit since January, and which is climbing more and more in the charts: in May, prices rose 5.8% compared to last year in France, the highest level since the 1980s.

But we're not talking here about a vulgar summer hit – spring, in this case – forgotten as soon as the dead leaves fall in autumn.

Because inflation is on track to last throughout the year, or even longer if affinity.

The World Bank, economists and the tenant of Bercy, Bruno Le Maire, are all counting on a rise in prices for many more months.

It's understood, the song of inflation will run through our heads for a long time.

But concretely, how far can prices go?

Are we going to end up paying 50 euros for a rib of beef and having to empty our A booklet when going to fill up with gas?

Price increases again and again

Like any story, to understand the end, you have to understand the beginning.

This record inflation comes from three distinct causes, list Marc Touati, economist and president of the cabinet Aux orders of the economy and finance.

Firstly, a surge in demand compared to supply at the end of the restrictive Covid-19 measures, towards the beginning and the middle of 2021. Secondly, the war in Ukraine, with many consequences on the price of energy and of food, the country being one of the breadbaskets of the world.

Finally,

, China's Zero Covid policy, which notably blocks Shanghai and a good part of the country's foreign trade.

"The global supply is becoming scarce, so everything is becoming more expensive", sums up the economist.

However, for at least two of the problems cited, things are likely to get worse, predicts Stéphanie Villers, an economist specializing in macros: “Xi Jinping is certainly not going to question his Zero Covid policy anytime soon.

For energy and the war in Ukraine, Europe plans to block Russian oil exports by 90%.

Then it will be gas”.

The Europeans' Plan Bs for oil or gas are further away and more expensive, which should increase prices again and again.

"We can assume inflation that rises to 8 or 10% over the year in France," says Marc Touati.

Not necessarily more, because "the country has put in place major brakes against rising prices, and which are already showing their effects", says François Geerolf, professor of economics.

Let us quote pell-mell the 15 centimes less for gasoline, the freezing of the price of electricity and gas, aid to the agricultural sector.

Thus, if France suffered 5.2% inflation over the past twelve months, it is much less than the average for European countries (8.1%), proof that these devices work.

“The government has announced that it will continue to freeze the price of energy in 2023”, also recalls François Geerolf, who nevertheless worries about the cost of such price shields.

Beyond the French case, “the European Central Bank has increased its interest rates, which should curb inflation everywhere in Europe”, supports Stéphanie Villers.

Who sees several signs of economic slowdown: “Growth is down, household consumption too, even GDP in France… These are early signs of a sluggish economy and a strong slowdown in demand.

And therefore inflation.

Self-destruction and recession

Because it is the essence of inflation: it ends up self-destructing, tells Marc Touati.

The prices become so expensive that the products are sold less, which stops the increase in their price, for lack of demand.

Moreover, “inflation is calculated in relation to last year.

In 2023, we will calculate the inflation compared to a year 2022 which will have seen a very sharp rise in prices, which will inevitably cause the percentage to drop, ”explains Stéphanie Villers.

However, there is a scenario that prevents inflation from becoming hara-kiri: wage increases.

“In this case, we open an infernal spiral, where since wages increase, prices increase.

And since prices increase, wages increase, ”says Marc Touati.

A scenario that France seems to avoid: “Some salaries increase, but certainly do not catch up with inflation”, analyzes François Geerolf.

Definitive burial of an improbable 30% price increase by Stéphanie Villers: "There is no risk of crazy inflation like in the 1980s. Wages are advancing little, the Smic is not raised, this scenario is ruled out.

»

Prices should therefore reach heights not seen in decades, but not Everests.

Still, even once stopped by the force of events, the story is not rosy.

"The end of inflation is not the fall in prices: they will remain high", recalls Marc Touati.

With therefore salaries that will not increase – or only slightly.

And as winter follows summer, "after inflation, the probable scenario is that of recession", concludes the economist.

Perhaps the hit of the year 2023 or 2024. A song not necessarily more pleasing to the ear than this inflationary hit of 2022.

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• Economy

• Inflation

• purchasing power

• Price

• War in Ukraine

• Consumption