On Thursday, June 2, trading in the global energy market was accompanied by sharp fluctuations in oil prices.

In the middle of the day, raw materials of the reference Brent brand on the ICE exchange in London became cheaper by almost 3.3% - to $112.5 per barrel, but in the evening the quotes began to grow noticeably and at some point exceeded $118 per barrel.

Oil prices began to rise after the conclusion of the OPEC + ministerial meeting.

At a meeting on Thursday, the parties to the agreement approved new parameters for hydrocarbon production and decided to increase the production of raw materials in July and August by 648 thousand barrels per day, and not by 432 thousand, as in previous months.

The outstripping production growth rates are designed to meet the high demand for energy resources in the summer.

This was stated by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak following the talks.

“In summer, demand rises.

The loading of oil refineries is increasing, the consumption of petroleum products is growing due to more active road trips, air transportation compared to those indicators that were observed before the crisis, ”Novak said on the air of the Rossiya 24 TV channel.

At the same time, the decision of OPEC + was largely unexpected for market participants and increased investors' fears about a possible shortage of oil in the world.

Igor Galaktionov, an expert on the BCS World of Investments stock market, shared this opinion with RT.

“OPEC+ highly appreciates the potential for demand growth in the summer.

Also, the alliance is likely to allow a more significant reduction in production in Russia due to EU sanctions.

Of course, more oil from the Persian Gulf may come to the market, but in fact the OPEC + decision suggests that the fuel shortage will be more serious than expected.

And this is a positive signal for prices,” Galaktionov explained.

Recall that the OPEC + agreement includes 23 oil-producing countries, including Russia.

As part of the deal, the states jointly control the production of raw materials to achieve a balance between supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market.

Such a policy should keep the price of oil from significant collapses.

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According to the forecast of the International Energy Agency, until the end of August, oil consumption in the world may increase by an additional 3.6 million barrels per day compared to April.

However, the projected increase in demand is unlikely to be fully offset by an increase in supply, Igor Galaktionov believes.

Against this background, as the expert predicts, during the summer the cost of oil will continue to remain above $100 per barrel.

A similar point of view was expressed by the chief economist of the TeleTrade information and analytical center Mark Goykhman in a commentary on RT.

“Over the next few months, we can assume a slight increase in oil prices from current levels to $120 per barrel.

First of all, this will be facilitated by the seasonal demand for energy from motorists and farmers,” he explained.

In turn, the analyst of IC "Freedom Finance" Vladimir Chernov is sure that the cost of energy raw materials can rise up to $130 per barrel.

In his opinion, the easing of quarantine restrictions in China should provide additional support for quotes.

“Previously, the demand for oil in China was limited due to the introduction of lockdowns due to the zero tolerance policy for COVID-19.

However, news has already appeared about the lifting of a number of restrictions in Shanghai against the backdrop of a sharp decrease in the number of cases.

In other cities, an improvement in the epidemic situation has also been noticed, so we expect the complete abolition of lockdowns in the near future, ”Chernov explained.

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European deficit

According to the expert, new EU sanctions against Russia will also contribute to an increase in oil prices.

Recall that at the end of May, after long negotiations, the European authorities agreed on the introduction of a partial embargo on oil imports from the Russian Federation.

The restrictions apply only to sea shipments and are expected to affect 75% of Russian raw material imports to the EU.

According to Alexander Novak, the European embargo may come into force only in six to eight months, and during this time the market will have to readjust.

Nevertheless, the EU's actions are more political than economic in nature and could result in a serious shortage of fuel in the region, the Deputy Prime Minister warned.

“European consumers will suffer first of all.

We see an increase in prices not only for oil, but also for oil products.

I do not rule out that there will be a large shortage of petroleum products in the European Union.

And in order to ensure the delivery of oil and its processing at refineries, stable ties that have been developed for decades will have to be changed,” Novak emphasized.

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As a result of a record rise in energy prices, the annual inflation rate in the eurozone has already accelerated to 8.1% - the highest level on record.

According to UN economists, the current situation is a shock for the European economy and may threaten a recession for some countries in the region.

Against this background, Western countries began to discuss the option of purchasing Russian oil at below market prices instead of completely abandoning it.

This was announced yesterday by US President Joe Biden.

However, Russia does not intend to trade in raw materials at a loss, the Kremlin assured.

“Of course, Russia will not sell anything at a loss.

In any case, if demand is declining somewhere, somewhere it is increasing, there is a reorientation of flows, a search for the most favorable conditions,” Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday.

As suggested by the Russian Foreign Ministry, the new sanctions of European countries will eventually have a "self-destructive effect" for the EU itself.

Moscow, meanwhile, began to redirect its energy exports to Asia, as the official representative of the Russian diplomatic mission, Maria Zakharova, said earlier.

“This is not an easy task.

The decision entails a change in logical chains and legal issues in the business area.

Russia is already actively developing infrastructure for the export of coal, oil and gas to the East.

Do not forget that the world's energy demand, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, will grow steadily.

We have no doubts about the demand for Russian energy resources,” Zakharova said on May 18.

Against the backdrop of what is happening in May, Asia has already bypassed Europe in terms of oil purchases from Russia.

This happened for the first time in the history of observations, as reported by Bloomberg, citing data from the analytical company Kpler.

According to Vladimir Chernov, Moscow now supplies raw materials to Asian countries with discounts of $30-38 per barrel.

Nevertheless, even in these conditions, Russia has the opportunity to compensate for the losses from the European embargo and provide its budget with the necessary amount of income, the expert is sure.

“Due to high oil prices, super-profits come to the budget.

Thanks to this, the government can increase social payments and direct large amounts of money to support the economy - preferential loans, additional capitalization of banks and state-owned companies, tax breaks, ”the expert concluded.