The price of more than half of the products we consume is already rising above 4% year-on-year
Coffee with milk and toast with butter and jam;
tea and a slice of bread with olive oil and salt;
an orange juice and an omelette, and a bowl of milk with cereal.
This
breakfast
, which could be that of
any family
of four members,
will cost 12% more today
than a year ago if the family chosen for the example is
Spanish.
An increase three times higher than that registered if the family is
French
, double what has risen for an
Italian
and 30% more than what has increased for a
German
house .
It is the effect of inflation
, which has risen in Spain by 8.7% in May, according to the data advanced this Monday by the INE, and which already generates
two perverse effects
on the country's economy: on the one hand,
it is spreading to all the elements of the shopping basket
without any contention dam and, on the other hand, it affects
more virulently
than in the rest of European countries.
Core
inflation
, which measures the evolution of prices excluding those of energy and fresh food, serves as a thermometer to know how the rest of the country's prices fluctuate and in the month of May it rose by
4.9%
year-on-year, average point more than in April and the highest figure since October 1995.
The general index has also surprised on the upside, since it was expected that after the peak reached in March -of 9.8%- the IPC would begin a downward path.
After moderating to 8.3% in April, however, it
is now up again to 8.7%.
The result is an
impoverishment
of families, who as soon as they start the day already have to pay
12% more than a year ago to be able to have breakfast.
Bread has
risen
10.1%;
butter ,
12.8
%;
breakfast
cereals
, 6%;
milk ,
14
%;
yogurts ,
10.9
%;
coffee ,
10.7
%;
sugar ,
3.3
%;
tea
,
7.7%,
cocoa
and
chocolate
powder, 10.2%;
juices ,
7.6
%;
fruits ,
9.5
%;
olive oil
,
42.5%;
and
eggs
, 21.6%.
Rises, collected by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) at the end of April, which far exceed those experienced in other European countries.
According to the data of the
homologous institutes
in Germany, France and Italy, all these common products in the first hours of the day on the tables of European homes have risen in the last year, but in no case as much as in Spain.
This
breakfast
is today
in Germany 8.2% more expensive;
in
Italy, 5.5%
and in
France, 4% higher.
In fact, the CPI stood at
7.9% in Germany in May
, according to advance data also this Monday in that country, while in France it rose 4.8% in April and in Italy, 6.2%. .
The data for May of the latter will be known this Tuesday when Eurostat publishes its advance for the month.
Breakfast ,
in
any case,
is just one example
.
The prices of almost any component of the shopping basket rise more strongly in Spain than in the rest of the comparable countries of the European Union.
Greater contagion to other goods in Spain
While in the rest of the countries the greatest increases are concentrated in
energy products
, in
Spain
there are more and more different goods and services with strong increases.
Here, edible
oils
other than olive (sunflower, palm, coconut, etc.) rise 96.2%;
hotels
, 50.5
%;
and
olive oil
, 42.5%, the three being among the products with the highest increases.
In
Germany
, the price increases are led by
liquefied hydrocarbons
(butane, propane...) with a rise of 123.1%;
liquid
fuels,
77.4% and
diesel
, 51.9%;
the same thing happens
in
France - liquid
fuels
rise 80.8%;
natural
gas
, 54.5%, and
diesel
, 34.3%-, and in
Italy
the increases are led by
European flights
(91%) and
international flights
(79.8%) -whose main cost is the fuel- and
electricity
(68.5%).
Electricity
in Spain
rose by
34.9%
in April , moderating mainly due to the
base effect
, since in April 2021 it already registered increases;
liquid fuels for heating became more expensive by 95.7%;
and butane and propane, 33.4%.
The Government has not yet managed to approve the
cap on the price of gas
, which will have a downward impact on the price of electricity, with which a general drop in the energy bill has not yet been seen that could deflate the increases a little.
With regard to
diesel and gasoline
, which are respectively 32.1% and 16.3% more expensive in Spain in April,
the increases are lower
than those that have occurred
in the rest of the European countries
due in part to the
bonus
of 20 cents per liter decreed by the Government and which entered into force on April 1.
This moderation in the rise in prices has occurred despite the fact that according to some economists such as
Juan Luis Jiménez
, doctor in Economics and professor at the University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria,
the fuel discount has been
largely absorbed
by the producers
, with which the expected relief in the pockets of the drivers has not been noticed.
"The results are clear: the average prices in Spain increased after the policy by, approximately and on average, 5 cents. Specifically, gasoline 95 increased 2.7 cents before taxes and 3.7 after taxes; and diesel even more, reaching 4.1 and 6 euro cents before and after taxes, respectively (...)
A part of the subsidy is not reflected in lower prices for consumers
, who should pay 20 cents less, and not 15 as it is really happening", he denounces while emphasizing "the
ineffectiveness of the measure
".
The presumed ineffectiveness of the measure could have influenced the evolution of the CPI, since although some experts such as the
Funcas
economists expected it
to moderate up to 7.6%
, it has finally surprised on the upside with a rise of more than one point higher .
Additional measures to contain the CPI
The Government and the central banks maintain, however, the message that inflation is "exceptional" and will go down.
"
We are in an exceptional moment
caused by the exit of the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine and it is affecting the Spanish economy and all the economies of the world. There are problems with the price of food (...) but
there are many circumstances
that are foreign to us
that we are trying to repair
", said this Monday the Minister of Agriculture,
Luis Planas
, in statements collected by Efe.
"We continue to work on
measures to curb prices,
especially energy prices and raw materials, which is where the problem lies," pointed out his counterpart from Industry, Commerce and Tourism,
Reyes Maroto,
who has assured that the Executive will extend the measures approved to try to contain inflation.
However, whether or not inflation will go down will largely depend on whether these messages sink in and give companies and consumers confidence, that is,
on the expectations generated around prices.
Meanwhile, and given the evolution of the data,
Ángel Gavilán
, Director General of Economy and Statistics of the
Bank of Spain
, warned that the institution
will revise its inflation forecast upwards
and its growth estimate downwards.
In their latest projections, presented in April, they predicted that
inflation would close the year on average at 7.5%
, a figure surpassed by the increase in the CPI accumulated to date, of
8.1% so far this year.
The director of Economy of the supervisor has taken advantage of his intervention in an act in Seville to recognize that today's data has surprised them and to
demand an income pact between unions and businessmen
that "avoids an inflationary spiral" since there are "some policies to fight against inflation that escape the margin of governments".
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