The new crown pneumonia epidemic and the Ukraine crisis have led to increased downward pressure on the economy. At the current key point in determining the economic trend of this year, the State Council has issued a package of policy measures to stabilize the economy, and strive to ensure that the economy achieves reasonable growth in the second quarter and the unemployment rate drops as soon as possible.
The "Notice of the State Council on Printing and Distributing a Package of Policies and Measures to Stabilize the Economy" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice") was officially released on May 31. We will work hard to ensure that it is implemented in a timely manner and exert greater policy effects on stabilizing the economy and helping enterprises to bail out as soon as possible.
On the same day, the National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference to interpret the relevant situation of the package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy deployed at the executive meeting of the State Council. Interpreted 33 detailed measures to stabilize the economy.
Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a press conference that the complexity, severity, and uncertainty of my country's economic development environment are rising, and stabilizing growth, employment, and prices are facing new challenges.
We will make every effort to promote the implementation of a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy as soon as possible, and strive to break through the stuck points that restrict the economic cycle, reasonably expand effective demand, ensure the safety and stability of food, energy, and industrial chains and supply chains, and promote the accelerated resumption of work and production in key areas. Do a good job in ensuring the supply and price of important commodities for people's livelihood, and keep the economy operating within a reasonable range.
Multiple efforts to stimulate car consumption
Since the beginning of this year, affected by factors such as the spread of the epidemic and the shortage of chips, the growth of automobile consumption has been under pressure. In particular, the supply and demand of automobiles fell sharply in April. The retail sales of automobiles above the designated size decreased by 31.6% year-on-year, dragging down the social zero of the month. The total growth rate was 2.7 percentage points year-on-year.
Steady increase in automobile consumption plays a very important role in promoting the recovery of consumption and driving the sustainable development of the entire automobile industry chain.
Xu Xiaolan, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the press conference that a new round of new energy vehicles to the countryside will be officially launched, and follow-up activities such as home appliances and green building materials will be organized to further promote the consumption of bulk commodities.
According to the official WeChat account of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on May 31, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Ministry of Commerce, and the National Energy Administration recently jointly issued a notice to deploy new energy vehicles to the countryside in 2022.
The event will be held from May to December this year, and will be held in Shanxi, Jilin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Shandong, Hubei, Hunan, Hainan, Sichuan, Gansu and other places in third- and fourth-tier cities and counties. ,Corporate events.
In addition, on May 31, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement on the reduction of vehicle purchase tax for some passenger vehicles. The vehicle purchase tax is halved for passenger cars with a displacement of 2.0 liters and below that do not exceed 300,000 yuan (including value-added tax).
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Passenger Vehicle Market Information Joint Committee, believes that this move will encourage the consumption of fuel vehicles, and also encourage the recovery of people's livelihood needs, especially in stimulating the growth of first-time purchases and replacement purchases.
He estimates that this move may boost auto consumption by 2 million units.
Vice Minister of Commerce Sheng Qiuping also mentioned at the press conference that the Ministry of Commerce will work with relevant departments to introduce detailed implementation measures to promote the transformation of automobiles from purchase management to use management, ensure that relevant measures are implemented as soon as possible, and promote the sustainable and stable development of the automobile market. .
The focus is on two aspects: one is to stabilize the increment and increase the consumption of new cars; the other is to revitalize the stock and expand the circulation of used cars.
Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, told Yicai that stimulating auto consumption is one of the important ways to stabilize growth.
The automobile industry has the characteristics of large volume, long industrial chain, high correlation, wide influence and high proportion of consumption, which plays a pivotal role in economic development and social stability.
The automobile industry has a great role in driving social production, and each additional unit of terminal demand will drive other industries to release nearly three times the output effect.
Luo Zhiheng believes that the current round of automobile consumption stimulus policies has many tools, great strength and wide scope, which will effectively boost automobile consumption, and then accelerate the recovery and growth of related industries by pulling the upstream and downstream industrial chains.
Recently, all localities have actively implemented the national plan to steadily increase automobile consumption. Some cities with limited automobile purchases, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, have increased the number of license plate indicators. Jilin, Chongqing and other places have introduced subsidies for new car purchases, car trade-ins, support for new energy vehicle consumption, Facilitate pickup trucks into the city and other measures.
Sheng Qiuping said that with the effective implementation of various relevant measures, auto consumption will continue to stabilize and recover, playing a positive role in stabilizing the macroeconomic market.
Make every effort to ensure the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain
Affected by the current epidemic, the industrial chain and supply chain of some industrial enterprises are still blocked, and market players are still facing great difficulties.
The manufacturing PMI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on May 31 was 49.6%, although it increased by 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, it was still below the line of prosperity and decline.
The proportion of surveyed companies reflecting high raw material and logistics costs still exceeds 50%.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a teleconference on boosting the industrial economy on the 27th, emphasizing that it will go all out to boost the industrial economy and provide solid support for stabilizing the economic market.
The second quarter is a critical period for the development of the whole year. It is necessary to strengthen confidence, strengthen coordination, supervision, monitoring and early warning, and implement a package of policies and measures with extraordinary efforts and means to ensure reasonable growth of the industrial economy in the second quarter, and strive to achieve the goals and tasks of the year.
Xu Xiaolan said at the press conference that the industrial economy is the main body and growth engine of the national economy, and the industrial chain and supply chain are the backbone of the economy.
In the face of the difficulties and challenges brought by the epidemic, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology takes the smooth supply chain of the industrial chain as its primary task, establishes a "whitelist" system for key industrial chain supply chain enterprises and implements dynamic adjustments, and builds a supply chain coordination platform for key industrial chains such as automobiles and integrated circuits. , focus on key areas such as the Yangtze River Delta, promote the resumption of work and production of key node enterprises, promote the smooth operation of the industrial chain with the point and chain, and promote the smooth operation of the industrial economy with the chain and the surface.
At present, 1,722 enterprises are included in the ministerial-level "white list", including 447 "specialized, specialized and new" enterprises and 214 foreign-funded joint ventures; 20,800 enterprises are included in the provincial "white list".
Xu Xiaolan said that it needs to be clear that the "white list" system is only a temporary emergency measure, and the goal is to fully resume work and reach production.
We will also adopt point-to-point, one-to-one, short-term, flat-and-quick and other methods to help leading enterprises in the supply chain of key industrial chains and key node enterprises to solve practical problems, and ensure stable production, increase production and expansion of production in key regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.
Wu Chaoming, deputy director of the Financial Information Research Institute, told Yicai that the PMI of large enterprises returned to the expansion range in May, while the small and medium-sized enterprises continued to be in the contraction range. Stronger and more benefited from the policy of stabilizing growth, it is necessary to continue to increase the support for small and medium-sized enterprises in the future structural policies.
In order to fully boost the stabilization and recovery of the industrial economy, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will intensify its efforts to push forward the policy and make it more precise and effective before the end of June.
Xu Xiaolan revealed that the "Interim Measures for the Gradient Cultivation and Management of High-Quality Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" will be issued this week, and before the end of June, the "Notice on Strengthening the Integration of Industry and Finance to Support the High-quality Development of Specialized New Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" will be issued with the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. "Guidelines for Coordinating Epidemic Prevention and Control and Production of Manufacturing Enterprises", launching and implementing the digital "three products" action plan for the consumer goods industry (2022-2025), etc.
A package of monetary and financial policies
On the basis of the financial measures set by the National Standing Committee on May 23, the content of the "Notice" was further clarified and refined.
According to the "Notice", monetary and financial policies include: encouraging the implementation of deferral of principal and interest repayment for small and medium-sized enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, truck driver loans, and personal housing and consumer loans affected by the epidemic, and increasing support for inclusive small and micro loans We will continue to promote the stability of the actual loan interest rate with some reduction, improve the financing efficiency of the capital market, and increase the support of financial institutions for infrastructure construction and major projects.
In terms of making good use of the bailout policy for small and medium-sized enterprises in precise drip irrigation, the "Notice" decided to increase the support for inclusive small and micro loans.
Continue to increase the re-loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses.
Increase the financial support ratio of inclusive small and micro loan support tools from 1% to 2%, that is, the People's Bank of China will increase the balance of inclusive small and micro loans by the relevant local corporate banks (including the inclusive small and micro loans formed by deferred principal and interest repayment). 2% of micro-loans) to provide financial support to better guide and support local corporate banks to issue inclusive small and micro loans.
Increasing the support for inclusive small and micro loans has always been the focus of financial policy efforts.
Data shows that at the end of April 2022, the balance of inclusive small and micro loans was 20.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%, maintaining a growth rate of more than 20% for 36 consecutive months. %.
On May 24, the People's Bank of China held a system-wide monetary and credit situation analysis meeting and also stated that it will double the amount and support ratio of inclusive small and micro loan support tools this year, and guide and support local corporate financial institutions to increase loan issuance and optimize credit structure. , reduce financing costs.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, believes that due to the impact of the sudden epidemic and fluctuations in the energy and commodity markets, some small and micro enterprises are facing many operational difficulties and challenges. Effectively reducing the financing cost of small and micro enterprises will help ease the cash flow pressure of small and micro enterprises, reduce the financial burden of enterprises, and stabilize the confidence of enterprise development.
Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin Investment Research Institute, believes that this year's quota and incentive ratio have doubled at the same time, coupled with a number of monetary policies such as RRR cuts to support financial institutions to increase credit to small, medium and micro enterprises, this time to adjust small and micro enterprises The overall scale of loan extension may more than double, and it is expected to achieve more than 5 trillion yuan in loan extension, which can greatly ease the financial pressure of enterprises under the impact of the epidemic and achieve an effective relief effect.
In terms of interest rates, the "Notice" proposes to continue to promote the steady and moderate decline of actual loan interest rates.
On the basis of making good use of the early RRR reduction funds and expanding credit supply, give full play to the role of the market interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism, continue to release the reform efficiency of the loan market quoted rate (LPR) formation mechanism, give full play to the role of the market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates, and guide financial institutions. The effect of the decline in deposit interest rates will be transmitted to the loan side, and the actual loan interest rate will continue to be stable with some declines.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Orient Jincheng, predicts that the monthly new loan scale is expected to continue to increase significantly compared with the same period last year. Starting from May, the growth rate of various loan balances will show a trending upward turning point.
Author: Zhu Yanran Du Chuan