“The southern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline passes through the territory of Ukraine, through which oil is supplied not only to Hungary, but also to Slovakia and the Czech Republic.
Ukraine may announce some kind of force majeure: it may be related to technical problems or security issues,” the expert explained.
According to the specialist, this could potentially create quite serious risks for the supply of fuel to the refineries of the Hungarian MOL and Slovnaft.
“Because about 70% of the oil that is supplied to these countries is supplied through the Druzhba oil pipeline.
It will be difficult to reorient quickly enough.
There are alternative possibilities through the ports of Croatia, for example, to Hungary.
This will be a significantly more expensive route in terms of logistics and cost for the Hungarian economy,” Kondratiev said.
At the same time, he noted that such threats are unlikely to induce the Hungarian government to more actively support Ukraine.
Earlier, Zerkal said that Kyiv has a lever of pressure on Budapest in the form of a string of the Druzhba oil pipeline against the background of Hungary's unwillingness to refuse gas from Russia.
According to her, “something could happen to him at any moment.”