Original Liu Xiaoyou Brokerage China

  Following the release of early floating profits due to the rectification of asset valuation methods in October last year, it has been a long time since the net value of wealth management products jumped.

Not to mention that the stock market has fallen since the beginning of the year, and the bond market has repeatedly.

  With the recovery of the bond market, a wave of bank wealth management net worth has soared in a low-key manner, and the annualized rate of return in the past month has achieved the best performance in half a year: the annualized rate of financial sub-products of joint-stock banks in the past month jumped within one day About 60 BPs, and the annualized rate of some products of Da Bank's wealth management sub-products has exceeded 7% in the past month!

  The net value of many products jumped

  The restoration of the bond market has brought a long-lost surprise to banks' financial management.

  The annualized rate of return of a batch of fixed income + bank wealth management products in the past one month is quite impressive, and there are not a few that reach more than 4.5%. Minimum holding period, daily monthly redemption, daily monthly redemption products are involved, and the issuers include Joint stock banks, city commercial banks, and wealth management subsidiaries of state-owned banks.

  The performance of several fixed income + open-ended products under ICBC Wealth Management is the most dazzling, with an annualized performance of more than 7% in the past month.

  In addition, the net value of some bank wealth management products jumped in a single day: the two minimum holding period products of Everbright Wealth Management are more representative examples.

The annualized rate of return of the two products in the past one month surged by 59 BP and 44 BP respectively on May 18.

  There is also a wealth management cash management product of a large bank. Seven-day annualized has recently gone out of a sudden upward trend.

  The above performance has, to a certain extent, boosted the restoration of the annualized rate of return since the establishment of related products.

The research report of Liao Zhiming’s team, chief analyst of the banking industry of China Merchants Securities, shows that the average semi-monthly annualized rate of return of fixed income and fixed income + wealth management will be opened in the first half of May, showing a V-shaped rebound compared with the second half of April.

In the first half of May, the average semi-monthly annualized returns of fixed-opening pure fixed income and fixed-opening fixed income + wealth management were 4.96% and 4.87%, respectively, which were at a relatively high level.

  Fully release the early bond floating profit, but beware that the income is difficult to maintain

  "The liquidity is relatively abundant, so everyone concentrated on buying bonds, and then the price of bonds rose, and the interest rate fell. Then, the bonds bought originally accumulated capital gains." A bank wealth management fixed income investment manager summed up his account management to reporters. The reason for the jump in the net value of the product.

  Since April, market liquidity has remained abundant and funding rates have fallen.

A number of interviewed institutional traders and investors told the brokerage China reporter that the duration of this round of easing has continued to extend, and the market's optimism about the bond market has continued to rise.

Indeed, the yield to maturity of 1-year and 3-year short- and medium-term notes has dropped by 45BP and 25BP respectively from the staged high point at the end of March. the same level.

  Wind data shows that since May 9, the transaction volume of pledged repurchase in the interbank market has not been lower than 5 trillion yuan per day, and it has fluctuated around 6 trillion yuan for many days.

Among them, the transaction volume of funds within the seven-day period accounts for the majority, reflecting that financial institutions are using short-term funds to add leverage to arbitrage. This has become what some fixed-income investment managers call "borrowing short to buy long.

  The fixed income team of GF Securities predicts that the yield curve of interest rate bonds has also tended to move downward in the past two weeks. At first, the short-term decline was larger, and then funds began to spread to the short-term and medium-term interest rates, and there were subsequent risks that continued to push down the long-term interest rates. possible.

  Many research reports predict liquidity: With the gradual resumption of the market and production in Shanghai and the reduction of mortgage interest rates across the country driven by the 5-year LPR, social finance and economic data are expected to recover slightly, while the loose currency environment is expected to continue until June. moon.

But at the same time, financial institutions are facing a certain degree of "asset shortage", the financing needs of the real economy are insufficient, and credit issuance is hindered.

  The CICC Fixed Income team recently took the proposition of "asset shortage" and released a research report "Whether bonds should increase the duration under the pattern of "asset shortage".

The latest survey results conducted by it show that investors' concerns about overseas markets have significantly eased, including the rise in US bond interest rates, the pressure of RMB depreciation, overseas inflation, etc., and the central bank's monetary policy will remain loose or even further loose. Confidence has strengthened, which has also led to a further improvement in the bond market sentiment margin.

Under the background that the market has gradually sensed that the easing of funds will continue, investors' preference for duration has increased, not only the expectation of further loosening of monetary policy, but also the discussion of possible new fiscal tools such as special government bonds. is also increasing.

  In short, what to buy is a question that many fixed-income investment managers are thinking about.

"The issuance of local bonds also dropped last month, and the scope of configuration is actually narrowed. The primary market has fallen sharply recently, and I may be more concerned about certificates of deposit now." A wealth management investment manager told reporters.

  The investment manager specially reminded that the short-term release of this wave of bond floating profits will push up the annualized yield in the past one month.

And many financial investors prefer to pay attention to this indicator, and some APPs also display this indicator.

However, the super high returns are not sustainable, and the follow-up will definitely fall back soon, so each bank needs to give investors enough risk warnings when selling.

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