The pandemic had unintentionally defused the problem of staff shortages for many companies.

But now, despite new threats of crises related to the Ukraine war, it is coming back across the board: almost every second company sees its business slowed down this spring because it lacks skilled workers.

In manufacturing, the key sectors of industry, the burden of a shortage of skilled workers has even reached an all-time high.

This is shown by the new results of the "skilled worker barometer", which the development bank KfW collects twice a year together with the Ifo Institute.

They are available to the FAZ in advance.

Dietrich Creutzburg

Business correspondent in Berlin.

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"It would be a mistake to only think of raw materials and advance payments from abroad in the event of bottlenecks that are hindering the upswing," warns KfW chief economist Fritzi Köhler-Geib.

"The shortage of skilled workers also has significant effects - which will probably be even more serious in the long term," she summarizes the results.

If no countermeasures are taken, the shortage of skilled workers will have a significant impact on the growth potential of the German economy by the middle of this decade.

"For containment, the clock is already at five past twelve."

MINT staff is missing

Of course, a lack of staff hits companies all the harder when they also have to juggle with material shortages.

On Monday, the district manager of IG Metall Baden-Württemberg, Roman Zitzelsberger, described how this can work in everyday life: Many companies in the industrially strong region currently have full order books - but production depends on whether the materials and preliminary products are available.

"In some cases, this means that extra shifts are sometimes worked on a weekly basis and sometimes short-time work," reports Zitzelsberger.

The new skilled worker report that the National MINT Forum and its members are publishing this Tuesday also shows how much the shortage of personnel is becoming a brake pad, especially in industry.

It is also available to the FAZ in advance.

MINT stands for mathematics, computer science, natural sciences, technology, i.e. the core qualifications for industrial occupations.

All in all, there was a lack of 320,000 skilled workers, specialists and academics in April, as the German Economic Institute (IW) shows in the report.

This is the highest level in a spring quarter since calculations began in 2011. The clients are the Federal Employers' Association BDA and the Employers' Association of Gesamtmetall.

Last year, given the upheavals of the pandemic, the institute determined a gap of less than 150,000.

But in addition to changing economic prospects, which naturally cause the need for personnel to fluctuate, the aging of society is causing a steadily increasing need: According to the IW, 270,000 MINT skilled workers have to be replaced every year in order to keep the workforce stable.

For the time being, however, only half as many graduates will be added each year.

There remains the hope of attracting career changers and climbers through further training.

At the same time, qualified immigrants are playing an increasingly important role: "Without the immigration successes of recent years, there would already be a shortage of 312,000 MINT workers today, the gap would be over 600,000," explains study author Axel Plünnecke.

The analysis also shows that the shortage is not only clouding business prospects, but also major political projects such as the energy revolution or the digitization of public administration: The biggest gaps are in the energy and electrical professions and in IT professions.

According to the KfW Ifo Barometer, the proportion of companies that feel burdened by a shortage of skilled workers is even higher in the service sector at 48 percent than in industry (40 percent).

Part of the explanation is the downside of the lockdowns during the pandemic: In the spring of 2021, less than 7 percent of companies in the hospitality industry complained about a shortage of skilled workers, now it is 52 percent.

However: Even in industry, which plays a key role in prosperity with its added value and a good seven million employees, the proportion of companies affected has more than doubled compared to the previous year.

The KfW Ifo Barometer is based on evaluations of the business surveys, from which the Ifo business climate index is also determined.

Köhler-Geib also emphasizes how many large-scale political projects – whether energy and transport transitions or strengthening care for the elderly – depend on having a sufficient number of skilled workers.

An improvement in the strategy for securing skilled workers is therefore now "imminent".

This includes a further opening of the labor market for non-academic skilled workers from abroad.

Migrants increasingly welcome

From her point of view, it is encouraging that the openness in society towards immigrants who want to work here has increased.

This is documented by a current representative survey by KfW Research.

It shows that 83 percent of the working-age population consider “at least constant efforts” to recruit foreign skilled workers to be correct.

48 percent support greater efforts.

According to the study, 15 percent would like fewer foreign skilled workers, with skepticism decreasing the higher the level of education.

Edith Wolf from the board of directors of the National MINT Forum also rates the new numbers of skilled workers as “dramatic” and as an urgent mandate for politicians to take action.

Your appeal: In order to attract more young professionals for the so important scientific and technical subjects, the promotion of these subjects should no longer be just an issue of education policy - the labor and economic departments of the federal and state governments must also be involved.