"Among all the new first-tier cities, Changsha has the lowest housing prices." In 2020, Xie Liang, a post-90s generation struggling in Shanghai, bought a house in Changsha for 1.2 million yuan and settled down as a new Changsha native.
One of the keys to her choosing Changsha was the affordable housing price.
Low housing prices have long become an important label in Changsha.
According to the "2021 New First-tier Cities Living Report" released by the Shell Research Institute, among 35 first- and second-tier cities, Changsha's housing competitiveness index ranks ninth, and the "living burden" is the smallest among the new first-tier cities.
According to the "2020 National 50 Cities Housing Price-to-income Ratio Report" released by the E-House Research Institute, Changsha's housing price-to-income ratio is only 6.2, ranking at the bottom, while Shenzhen's ratio reached 35.2 in the same period.
Now, when the average price of new houses in Wuhan has exceeded the 20,000 yuan mark, Changsha is still hovering at the level of 10,000 yuan, and has not changed its true character of "house price depression".
A number of industry insiders analyzed to Yicai that Changsha has been able to be a "model student in housing prices" for many years. The fundamental reason is that the strict price limit policy that has already been launched has successfully suppressed the budding of housing price rises.
Low housing prices have released strong consumption power, which has led to the rise of many new consumer brands. Brands such as Chayanyuese, Wenheyou, and Momo Dim Sum Bureau have grown rapidly and become new business cards of Changsha, attracting more people to come to Changsha. .
This central provincial capital city with a GDP of over one trillion yuan and a population of tens of millions has become "the happiest city in China" by virtue of its rich cultural heritage, solid economic foundation and trendy consumer culture.
Strict regulation and suppression of housing prices
Standing on the top of Yuelu Mountain, looking to the east, the line of sight crosses the low buildings hidden in the green vegetation in the east of the river, and the modern buildings scattered on the Xiangjiang River, Orange Island and the opposite bank come into view.
If the summit is reached around the National Day holiday, the mountains and forests described by the great man will reappear in front of us.
After going through the history of Chu and Hunan for thousands of years, through the anti-Japanese war, and after the fire of the evening, Changsha City was rebuilt on the ruins.
With its tyrannical spirit, this central city, which is not near the sea or borders, has not only nurtured large enterprises such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Shanhe Intelligent Manufacturing, etc. A group of new consumer brands has grown into an internet celebrity city with a GDP exceeding one trillion yuan and a population exceeding ten million.
What makes Changsha famous all over the world is that, in addition to its natural scenery, historical culture and economic strength, there are also housing prices that are far lower than cities with similar locations and development levels. At that time, Changsha, whose per capita GDP was at the forefront among the six central provincial capitals, had the lowest housing prices.
According to the "China Statistical Yearbook", in 2002, when the housing price in Wuhan and Zhengzhou was close to 2,000 yuan/square meter, the housing price in Changsha was 1,600 yuan/square meter; When the housing price exceeds 5,500 yuan/square meter, Changsha's is less than 4,500 yuan/square meter, only slightly higher than Nanchang.
"There is a historical reason here. The land supply in Changsha was relatively large in the first ten years," recalled Chen Shixia, general manager of Hunan Zhongyuan Real Estate Strategic Development Center, to Yicai.
This prompted the Changsha property market as a whole to be in a state of oversupply.
According to public data, in 2008, the supply-to-sales ratio of commercial housing in Changsha was 1.81, of which the supply-to-sales ratio of commercial housing was 1.83. Local media reports said that Changsha had entered a "buyer's market".
With the urban area of Changsha "expanding from east to west, south to north to expand", the land supply has not decreased, and the market is still oversupplied.
A Changsha market research report obtained by CBN shows that from 2013 to 2014, the supply-to-sales ratio of commercial housing in Changsha was 1.27 and 1.44, respectively.
"Since 2015, Changsha began to control land sales, and the supply that year was very small." Chen Shixia said.
The above-mentioned market report shows that in 2015, the supply-demand ratio of the residential market in the urban area of Changsha dropped to 0.88, and further fell to 0.63 in 2016.
The market pattern has gradually transformed into a shortage of supply, and housing prices in Changsha have begun to show signs of rising.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from August to November 2016, Changsha's housing prices rose by 1.5%, 4.3%, 4.4%, and 1.5% month-on-month, respectively, ranking among the top cities in the same period.
This year, the average transaction price of new houses in Changsha urban area was 7,403 yuan/square meter, an increase of more than 10%.
In 2017, the low supply superimposed the arrival of real estate speculators, and the housing prices in Changsha continued to rise.
In order to curb this momentum, in March 2017, Changsha issued a new policy on the property market, which stipulated that non-Changsha households should purchase one set; Household registration is limited to 2 sets.
In July of this year, Changsha sacrificed the price limit as a big killer.
Many interviewees believe that this is the key to suppressing Changsha's housing prices.
"I remember very clearly that the price limit reference is not based on the price in 2017, but based on the online signing record price in October 2016, and the limit is very strict." Chen Shixia said.
"In 2017, the house price in Meixi Lake had risen to about 14,000 yuan, the second-hand house price was 16,000 yuan, and expensive projects could reach 18,000 yuan." Xue Wen, who has worked in real estate for more than ten years in Changsha, told Yicai.com , "But the price limit set by the government for the Meixi Lake project, the rough housing is only 9,970 yuan, which is very restrictive."
At the same time, the separately filed fine decoration part was "stamped" in the second half of 2017 because of complaints from citizens that the goods were not on the right board and the price was too high.
Therefore, under the strict double price limit of rough price limit + refined equipment case, the housing price in Changsha is well controlled at a low level.
"After 2019, the annual house price increase set by Changsha is only 6%, and the growth rate is still very low."
In addition to making an early move, strong efforts and strong determination are a core factor for Changsha to control housing prices.
Shan Shuang, an assistant researcher at the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, summed up in the article "Changsha Model", putting the Changsha government's determination to regulate and control in the first place: "It can be seen from the strict regulation and control policy that the Changsha municipal government resolutely restrains housing prices. Determination to rise. In fact, it is a common means of local governments to curb housing prices through real estate macro-control policies, but few local governments are as determined to curb housing prices as Changsha.”
"Below 140 square meters are just needed"
Such a strong suppression of housing prices has had a considerable impact on the major participants in the Changsha property market.
"When the price cap was implemented in 2017, the average price difference between real estate and land was 4,500 yuan/square meter." Xue Wen said, "The land that the developer acquired in 2017 basically had no money to make. The cost is high and it is actually in a state of losing money.”
However, Changsha has been continuously adjusting to increase the space for the real estate price difference.
According to the calculation of Hunan Zhongyuan Real Estate, in 2021, the real estate price difference of the Changsha project has reached 7,508 yuan/square meter.
However, compared with the other five provincial capitals in the central region, this value is still not high.
"Other cities are basically close to 10,000," Chen Shixia said, but in the first round of centralized land supply in 2022, this indicator has further reached a level of about 8,400 yuan per square meter.
After several years of adjustment, Xue Wen clearly felt the increase in project profits.
"Judging from the path of the past few years, the profit margin of the projects for sale in Changsha is increasing, and if you add hardcover sales, if you can sell at the hardcover price, the profit margin of the project can be 8-10 points, compared with other cities. Look, it's a very good level."
Zhou Can, who works in a Top 30 real estate company, also believes that the current profit margin left by the Changsha market for the project is expected.
In addition to the static profit margins such as real estate price difference and fine decoration, "if the flow rate can be guaranteed, the dynamic profit also meets the requirements."
The flow rate of the project is guaranteed. In short, it is "sellable" and "not worried about selling".
Long-term low housing prices and strict control policies have brought this possibility to the Changsha property market.
Low housing prices first brought about low mortgage pressure.
Dai Yang, who worked in Changsha after graduating from university in 2013, bought a house in Wangcheng District in 2016. The unit price at that time was about 4,000 yuan per square meter, and the monthly repayment amount was only more than 1,000 yuan.
In addition to the down payment being supported by her family, she paid off the remaining 70% of the house payment in one go.
As for Xue Wen, who currently owns two suites, the monthly loan repayment amount is only about 6,000 yuan. "If it does not occupy much household expenses, this part of the money can be saved", so that the family wealth can be accumulated. possible.
At the same time, Changsha's strict sales and purchase restrictions have greatly lengthened the purchase and replacement cycle of citizens.
"During the purchase restriction period of several years, it is impossible for citizens to make large expenditures such as real estate purchases, which makes the citizens save more and more money, and their purchasing power increases relatively." Xue Wen said.
During this period, Changsha's per capita disposable income has maintained rapid growth.
According to data released by the Changsha Municipal Bureau of Statistics, in 2021, the per capita disposable income of Changsha residents will be about 56,000 yuan, an increase of 8.0% over the previous year. Among them, the per capita disposable income of urban residents will be 62,000 yuan, an increase of 7.2%.
This has exceeded the per capita disposable income of urban residents in Wuhan during the same period.
In fact, the purchasing power of Changsha citizens has contributed to another important market feature, that is, the area segment of the first-time home that is just needed has continued to grow in recent years.
The two rooms purchased by Dai Yang are still about 80 square meters; in 2018, another college student who bought a house near the Dawangshan plate and stayed in Changsha to work, bought the first suite with an area of more than 100 square meters.
"Now it is just needed below 140 square meters." Zhou Can said.
According to the statistics of Hunan Zhongyuan Real Estate, in 2021, the average area of mainstream apartments in Changsha will be about 132 square meters; from the perspective of transaction structure, the best-selling area is concentrated in 120-140 square meters; large-scale products over 160 square meters, Since the epidemic in 2020, there has been an increase in volume and price, and both supply and sales are booming.
Chen Shixia analyzed, "Because the housing price is cheap and everyone's room tickets are limited, it is generally done in one step. Under the circumstance that the payment power can be supported, the average house buyer will choose a large-scale house."
In Xue Wen's view, this is also an important reason why Changsha has not seen a large-scale price reduction in the context of the sharp decline in the national property market in the second half of 2021. In the case of over-increase, there will be no overdraft of the purchasing power of residents, making everyone's tolerance for Changsha housing prices relatively strong."
Zhou Can also feels the same. The improvement projects of Daping floor are selling very well. In the fourth quarter of 2021, some Daping floors will be put on the market. The unit price is more than 20,000 and the total price is between 4 and 5 million. Basically, they are all sold out. Average house prices rose by more than 10 points.”
Even so, according to the data of the Hunan Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-rural Development, the average price of new houses in Changsha in 2021 will be 10,119 yuan/square meter, which will remain at a low level.
"Changsha's housing price ceiling is now less than 30,000, and Wuhan has reached 50,000." Xue Wen said.
However, affected by the current industry situation, although Changsha has sufficient demand and sufficient purchasing power, home buyers still have a relatively obvious wait-and-see mood.
"There are several reasons for this. The first is that many cities are cutting prices. They will definitely have expectations in their hearts, whether the projects they are concerned about will be reduced in price, and the second is the delivery of enterprises."
This makes the current Changsha market face a year-on-year decline in transactions.
According to data from Hunan Zhongyuan Real Estate, in the first four months of the five districts in Changsha, the cumulative supply was 2.11 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 34%, and the transaction was 2.01 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 47%.
14 years of happy city
Taking advantage of the loosening of the national property market, Changsha has also introduced some loosening policies.
At the beginning of May, Changsha issued new regulations, changing the purchase limit from 6 years to 4 years for online signing. Two sets of policies can be purchased, which shortens the purchase cycle; in mid-May, Changsha issued a new policy, which stipulated that after the stock of houses was revitalized for rental housing, It is not included in the calculation of the number of family housing units, and is called "renting a house ticket" by the market.
Although the outside world believes that this policy is Changsha's innovation and relaxation of regulation, in the view of Changsha's real estate industry, the key may be to increase the supply of rental housing.
Zhou Can also believes that this will help reduce the living costs of young people and make them more willing to settle and work in Changsha.
In fact, housing prices that are much lower than other key cities have long been a weapon for Changsha to attract young people.
In March 2021, Zheng Jianxin, deputy secretary of the Changsha Municipal Party Committee and mayor, mentioned in an interview with the media that Changsha is the city with the lowest housing price and income ratio among all major cities in the country. An ordinary family can buy a 100-square-meter house after 6.4 years of work. , Young people can easily make a down payment for housing with their partner without relying on their parents, and said they will continue to control housing prices.
Low housing prices have reduced the pressure of house purchases on consumption, allowing Changsha people to have more energy to enjoy life, and further nourishing many new consumer brands. Juewei Duck Neck, Wen Heyou in the restaurant, Chef Fei, etc. Hunan's first JD Mall and IKEA will also be located in the Yanghu area of Changsha.
The rich and colorful entertainment life constitutes a high sense of happiness in Changsha life.
As of 2021, Changsha has been awarded "China's Happiest City" for the 14th consecutive year.
Young people are also adding footnotes to this happy city with their own actions.
Xie Liang is from Hubei. She wants to have a stable space after working hard outside. Coupled with the impact of the epidemic in 2020, she has the idea of buying a house.
After some careful research, she chose Changsha.
"In 2020, the average price in Changsha has not yet exceeded 10,000, and the small county over our home will cost more than 7,000 square meters," Xie Liang said. "Compared with Wuhan, Changsha's consumption expenditure is not very high, and the city is full of breath of life.”
According to public information, before 2019, Changsha had an annual net inflow of 230,000 to 270,000 people for four consecutive years.
According to Qipu data, by the end of 2020, Changsha's resident population increased to 8.8 million, a net increase of nearly 410,000 a year.
By the end of 2021, Changsha's resident population has reached 10.2393 million.
In 2017, Changsha entered the "trillion-trillion GDP club" for the first time; in 2021, its GDP will exceed 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.5% over the previous year, ranking sixth among provincial capitals in the country and second only to Wuhan in the central region.
At the same time, Changsha is one of the world's three major construction machinery industry clusters. According to 2021 data, Changsha's total construction machinery output value accounts for about 27.5% of China's and 7.2% of the world's, and its products cover 180 countries and regions.
Looking further into the future, Changsha, a potential stock, is seeking longer-term development.
In April 2022, Hunan issued "Several Opinions on Implementing the Strategy of Strengthening the Provincial Capital to Support the High-quality Development of Changsha City" (hereinafter referred to as "Several Opinions"), Changsha plans to reach about 2 trillion yuan in GDP by 2026, and the permanent population will exceed 1,200. 10,000 people, and gave multiple supporting measures to promote the construction of a strong provincial capital from the aspects of industry, transportation, Internet, energy, and talent introduction.
The key to building a strong provincial capital is to promote the development of strong industries.
On the basis of the original strong manufacturing industry, Changsha will also build an advanced manufacturing cluster system. By 2026, it will create about 15 industries worth 100 billion yuan and implement about 180 projects worth 1 billion yuan.
With such sufficient imagination, real estate companies continue to be optimistic about Changsha.
"Changsha's current property market health, urban development potential, and government financial support are more stable than other cities." In Xue Wen's view, the wealth appreciation effect of houses is also more obvious than that of surrounding cities with high housing prices.
"Under the current market conditions, we are very cautious about acquiring land in prefecture-level cities," Zhou Can told reporters. "Although the housing prices in another central provincial capital city are higher than those in Changsha, the house prices cannot be sold, and the purchasing power of residents is insufficient, while in Changsha, the There is sufficient purchasing power to support the market, and we continue to be optimistic about Changsha.”
(At the request of the interviewee, Xie Liang, Xue Wen, Zhou Can, and Dai Yang are all pseudonyms. The pictures in this article are all from the local government website)