Liu Liliang China Securities Journal China Securities Network
"Developing infrastructure investment moderately ahead of schedule", "building a modern infrastructure system" and "comprehensively strengthening infrastructure construction"... According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, a total of 38 fixed asset investment projects were approved in the first four months of this year, with a total investment of 533.3 billion yuan.
Infrastructure investment has carried the banner of steady growth.
Industry insiders pointed out that the follow-up efforts to stabilize growth will continue to increase, and new policies and financing tools to promote infrastructure investment are expected to be launched. It is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure investment will gradually pick up.
Promote the implementation of major projects
Steady investment is the key to stabilizing growth.
As the downward pressure on the economy further increases, "comprehensive strengthening of infrastructure construction" is placed in a more important position.
From the perspective of leading indicators, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to April, the total planned investment in newly started projects increased by 28.0% year-on-year, which is conducive to the continuous expansion of investment scale.
Meng Wei, a spokesperson for the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a press conference recently that it will step up planning for incremental policy tools.
Make precise efforts to expand effective investment, and promote the implementation of a number of major projects that benefit both the current and the long-term.
"In the next stage, we must actively promote the implementation of major projects." Luo Yifei, chief statistician of the Investment Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that making good use of government special bonds, accelerating infrastructure construction, giving full play to the government's effective investment guidance and driving role, and actively driving social investment, We will make every effort to promote the sustained and steady growth of investment.
At the level of central enterprises, recently, the National Energy Group has concentrated on 11 power projects with a total investment of 86.1 billion yuan, including onshore new energy bases, offshore wind power, large hydropower, coal power expansion and upgrading, and natural gas power generation, with a total installed capacity of 12.38 million kilowatts.
Since the beginning of this year, China National Chemical Engineering Group has successively won bids and started construction of major projects in many places.
Such as Shandong Yulong Petrochemical Industrial Park Sewage Treatment Plant procurement and construction general contract of 1.72 billion yuan.
From a local perspective, all localities are pushing for the accelerated implementation of major projects.
According to statistics from China National Financial Securities, as of May 13, the total investment in the provincial major project plans announced by 26 provinces and cities reached 11.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, of which nearly 70% were projects under construction.
The 2022 comprehensive transportation investment targets announced by 16 provinces and cities totaled more than 2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%.
In terms of new infrastructure, Zhao Wei, chief economist of Sinolink Securities, said that from the perspective of capital expenditures of domestic telecom operators, a new round of telecom network construction cycle may have begun, and 5G investment is accelerating.
In addition, the "East and West" project launched this year is expected to invest more than 400 billion yuan per year, which will further improve the new infrastructure.
Mingming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, believes that infrastructure investment is the core of steady growth this year, and it is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure investment for the whole year is expected to reach 10%.
"The acceleration of infrastructure investment and the steady growth of manufacturing investment will continue to promote the rapid growth of fixed asset investment." said Lian Ping, president of Zhixin Investment Research Institute.
The pace of special bond issuance is accelerated
As an important source of funds for infrastructure investment, the pace of issuance and use of special bonds has been further accelerated.
According to data from the Ministry of Finance, as of May 15, local governments have issued 1.5 trillion yuan of new local government special bonds this year, an increase of 1.3 trillion yuan over the same period last year.
"It is expected that the scale of new special bond issuance in May will be between 500 billion yuan and 600 billion yuan." Li Yishuang, chief analyst of fixed income at Cinda Securities, believes that the financial funds available for infrastructure investment this year will be very sufficient.
From the perspective of investment, Song Qichao, head of the Budget Department of the Ministry of Finance and director of the Government Debt Research and Evaluation Center, said recently that the special bonds in 2022 will continue to focus on 9 major areas, and will also reasonably expand the scope of use, including new infrastructure, food Warehousing and logistics facilities and other fields will become an important investment direction for special bonds in the future.
At the same time as the development of special bonds, other financing channels have also been further expanded.
Recently, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission held a meeting to express its support to play the key role of effective investment, and to ensure the financing of key areas and major projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan".
The People's Bank of China has also issued a document to support local governments to appropriately advance infrastructure investment, and ensure the reasonable financing needs of financing platform companies in compliance with laws and regulations.
In addition, the PPP model is accelerating the promotion and application.
In the first quarter of this year, 123 projects were newly entered into the national PPP comprehensive information platform management database, with an investment of 250.6 billion yuan.
Industry insiders believe that with the "combination punch" of the stabilizing growth policy, the "combination punch" of the policy of stabilizing growth will be strengthened in a timely manner, and the "tightness" and "lack" of funds and projects will be effectively alleviated this year.
Incremental Policy Toolbox or Open
"A series of policy measures to stabilize investment have not only boosted market confidence, but also focused on creating a favorable macro environment for market players to expand investment. With the implementation of policies, investment will definitely contribute more to stabilizing growth." China's macroeconomics Bi Jiyao, a researcher at the research institute, said.
"The economic growth rate in April may be the low point this year, and the toolbox of incremental policies may be opened in the future." Jiang Fei, chief macro analyst at Great Wall Securities, believes that there is room for continued interest rate cuts and RRR cuts in May and June. It is possible to issue special treasury bonds, and the real estate control policy is being optimized and adjusted at a faster pace.
Guan Tao, global chief economist of BOCI Securities, said that the recent policy measures taken by relevant departments have obviously exceeded the scope of traditional fiscal and monetary policies, and the implementation of these policy measures will play an important role in the economic recovery in the second quarter.
It is expected that the fiscal policy will maintain the intensity of expenditure and accelerate the progress of expenditure; in addition to the front-end efforts, monetary policy will also comprehensively use aggregate and structural tools to increase the weight in a timely manner. The RRR cut and interest rate cut in the second quarter are still worth looking forward to.