Because state aid measures will expire with the end of the corona pandemic, the number of insolvencies is likely to increase over the next few years.

According to Martin Tasma, partner at the law firm Hengeler Mueller, many companies have accumulated large debts during the pandemic that they now have to pay back.

This also included state corona aid, which was often given in the form of loans.

Tasma advises clients in financial crisis situations.

His customers include companies and financial investors such as private equity companies or distressed funds that buy up non-performing loans.

Mark Fehr

Editor in Business.

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According to Tasma, a further burden for companies has recently been the sharp rise in costs for energy and raw materials, interest rate increases and interruptions in supply chains.

In addition, there is a high pressure to transform many sectors, such as the automotive industry or branch-based retail.

No wave of bankruptcies, but a gradual increase

According to Tasma, the number of corporate bankruptcies will not increase abruptly, but gradually.

He does not expect the wave of insolvencies that has been conjured up many times, but rather a continuous increase over the next few years.

The commercial lawyer sees a focal point in the supplier industry.

Companies that supply large automobile manufacturers, for example, would have to pay significantly more for their intermediate products and their energy requirements, while the buying power of major customers remains high.

What is positive, however, is that both large corporations and banks have recently acted very prudently and constructively and made sure that suppliers were not wiped out in the current situation.

Credit insurance company Allianz Trade also expects an increase in corporate insolvencies this year and next.

In recent years, on the other hand, government aid measures have artificially reduced the number of bankruptcies despite the poor economic conditions.

But now the number is likely to return to the level it was before the pandemic.

According to a study by Allianz Trade published last week, bankruptcies around the world will therefore increase by 10 percent this year and by a further 14 percent in 2023.

The forecast for Germany is a little less serious: Allianz Trade expects a moderate increase in insolvencies of only 4 percent to 14,600 cases this year.

In the coming year, an increase of 10 percent to 16,130 is to be expected.

Last year, insolvencies in Germany fell for the twelfth time in a row, but average corporate debt and thus the damage per insolvency case rose to a record level of 3.4 million euros.

That is 55 percent more than in 2009 after the peak of the financial crisis.

According to the experts, the expected increase in insolvencies back to the level before Corona could be stopped if states extend their aid programs under the impression of the Ukraine war.