Wheat-based summer grains account for about a quarter of the total annual grain output.

As the global wheat price continues to fluctuate at a high level, whether my country can achieve a bumper harvest of summer grains and whether the purchase of summer grains is smooth is crucial to ensuring national food security.

  "This year's wheat is growing at the same level as usual, and there is a foundation for a bumper harvest. All localities must strictly implement the requirements of the party and government for food security, take the initiative to take the initiative, take active actions, strengthen measures and consolidate responsibilities, and fully implement the key tasks of summer grain procurement to ensure that The summer grain pellets are returned to the warehouse," said Qin Yuyun, a spokesman for the State Grain and Material Reserves Bureau.

The price of opening scales opened higher and moved higher

  Summer grains have been opened one after another, and wheat and rapeseed have been sporadically marketed.

The price of wheat in the new season opened higher and moved higher. The price of new wheat in some major producing areas exceeded 1.6 yuan per catty, far higher than the minimum purchase price of 1.15 yuan per catty this year.

"The acquisition of summer grains this year will still be dominated by market-based acquisitions. It is unlikely that the implementation plan of the minimum acquisition price will be launched on a large scale. It is expected that the acquisition volume will increase steadily." Qin Yuyun said.

  In the critical period of winter wheat planting last year, affected by the rare autumn flood, the sown area of ​​winter wheat decreased, the seedling situation was relatively complicated, the expectation of wheat production reduction was strengthened, and the price rose under pressure.

The latest agricultural situation dispatch of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that most of the summer grains in the main producing areas have entered the critical period of yield formation and are growing well. It is expected to usher in a large-scale harvest in early June.

Xinjiang, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang and other places have increased the support for spring wheat, and the sown area of ​​spring wheat has increased, which to a certain extent has made up for the adverse impact of the decline in the sown area of ​​winter wheat.

  "For summer grain purchases, we must adhere to the combination of an efficient market and a promising government, make every effort to do a good job in market-based purchases and policy-based purchases, and firmly hold farmers' bottom line of 'growing grains and selling them'," Qin Yuyun said.

On the one hand, all localities should take multiple measures to carry out market-oriented purchases in accordance with the requirements of the party and government for food security, and guide multiple entities to actively enter the market; A good policy underpins it.

It is understood that this year's minimum purchase prices for wheat, early indica, mid-late indica, and japonica are 115 yuan, 124 yuan, 129 yuan, and 131 yuan per 50 kilograms, respectively, all higher than the previous year.

  Qin Yuyun said that the purchase of summer grain is the first battle of grain purchase in the whole year, and the grain and reserve system attaches great importance to early planning and early action, and solid preparations for the acquisition are made.

All localities should actively take measures such as vacating warehouses and merging to expand their purchasing and storage capabilities, organize training for front-line business personnel such as acquisition quality inspection, measurement, statistics, and storage in advance, and help enterprises to raise funds through multiple channels, so as to truly achieve “warehouses and other grains, people, etc.” Grain, money and other grain”, to ensure that farmers “get food and money”.

Efforts will be made to improve the service level of grain purchases, so that farmers can sell "understood grain", "comfortable grain" and "satisfied grain".

Do a good job in the supervision of the grain purchase market, seriously investigate and deal with the purchase of grain under the pressure level, price manipulation, failure to pay the grain sales price in time, and "false purchases", "first harvest and then transfer", "Chen Dingxin", "shoddy" and "circle grain" and other violations of laws and regulations, strengthen the supervision of grain-related funds, and effectively maintain a good order in the acquisition market.

International food prices fluctuate at high levels

  Zhong Yu, director of the Industrial Economics Research Office of the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, believes that my country's wheat prices continue to rise, mainly due to the continuous high fluctuations in international wheat prices.

This year, the global wheat price has risen by more than 60%, and the domestic wheat price has risen significantly.

  Russia and Ukraine are the world's largest wheat producers and exporters, and their total wheat exports account for about 30% of the world's total wheat exports.

Affected by the Ukrainian crisis and other factors, the export of wheat from Russia and Ukraine was blocked, the global wheat supply and demand became unbalanced, and the price of wheat soared.

Zhong Yu believes that under the influence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, a new world grain trade pattern is taking shape, and countries with Ukraine as their main grain trade import partner need to find new alternative markets as soon as possible.

  At the same time, in order to protect the security of their own food supply, more countries have adopted food protection policies, and the global wheat supply and demand pattern has further tightened.

India's total wheat exports are small, and its ban on wheat exports will not have a serious impact on the international wheat market.

However, India's wheat export ban may cause a chain reaction. Be wary of some people using the export ban to create public opinion, manipulate market transactions, and cause market panic.

"More countries adopting food protectionist measures also stem from various factors leading to increasing expectations of grain production reductions," said Shen Hongyuan, director of the Research and Forecast Department of Zhengzhou Grain Wholesale Market.

  As a major producer of wheat in the world, my country's wheat output has been maintained at more than 130 million tons for many years, and the self-sufficiency rate is as high as 100%. A small amount of imports are mainly used to adjust the surplus and shortage.

my country's annual wheat imports are maintained at around 3 million tons to 4 million tons.

Since 2020, due to the tight supply and demand of corn, the consumption of wheat for feed has increased, and the import of wheat has increased significantly. Last year, the import of wheat reached 9.77 million tons, breaking the import quota for the first time.

As the tight domestic corn supply and demand situation further improves, it is expected that the demand for feed wheat will decrease significantly this year, and the import volume of wheat will also decrease.

The latest data from China Customs shows that in April, my country's wheat imports were 700,000 tons, down 22.4% year-on-year.

  The main sources of my country's wheat imports are Canada, the United States, and Australia. Less wheat is imported from Russia and Ukraine, and even less wheat is imported from India.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict and India's wheat export ban have limited impact on my country's wheat imports, but rising global wheat prices will increase the cost of imported wheat, and rising energy and fertilizer prices will further push up the cost of wheat production.

Improve comprehensive food production capacity

  With the global wheat supply and demand tightening, the price of wheat in my country will remain relatively high. It is expected that the increase in the procurement cost of downstream enterprises may lead to "strong wheat and weak flour" in the flour market, and the profit margins of small and medium-sized flour enterprises will shrink.

"We have increased the spare stock of wheat, and the stock of high-quality wheat is sufficient. Up to now, the flour processing mainly uses the stock of high-quality wheat as the raw material, and the company is running well as a whole. Now the price of wheat on the scale is high, and the large-scale listing of new wheat may show a situation of high opening and low decline. Worrying that there will be risks in the later period, the company plans to extend the replenishment period." Yang Xinliang, chairman of Hebei Five-Star Noodle Industry Co., Ltd., said in an interview with a reporter from Economic Daily.

  Wheat has a wide range of uses. It can be ground into flour, made into steamed bread, bread, noodles and other foods. After fermentation, it can be made into liquor, beer, and alcohol. When the price ratio is reasonable, it can also replace corn as feed.

Since 2020, my country's corn supply and demand have been tight and prices have risen, and a large amount of wheat has flowed into the feed field. Last year, the consumption of feed wheat exceeded 40 million tons.

With the high price of wheat and the decline in the stock of hog breeding, the consumption of wheat for feed will fall sharply this year.

  May is a sensitive market period for new and old wheat.

Before the new wheat goes on the market, the national policy wheat auction is an important channel to meet the stable supply of grain.

Data from the National Grain Exchange Center shows that in the first four months of this year, the minimum purchase price of wheat was 7.012 million tons, and the transaction of Xinjiang temporary storage wheat was 243,000 tons.

In mid-April, the relevant departments suspended the auction of minimum purchase price wheat and temporarily stored wheat, nearly a month earlier than in previous years.

Industry insiders believe that the state pressing the pause button in advance is mainly to free up the market for the listing of new wheat, to speed up the rotation of wheat reserves at all levels, and to prepare funds and warehouse capacity for the purchase of summer grains.

With the successive listing of new wheat, milling and feed enterprises have reduced their purchases of old wheat.

  Shen Hongyuan believes that the current domestic wheat market supply is relatively stable.

As a major wheat consumer in the world, in the face of the tight global wheat supply and demand, my country must stick to its domestic base, continuously improve its comprehensive grain production capacity, ensure stable and increased wheat production, and firmly hold the rice bowl of the Chinese people in its own hands.

On the basis of ensuring the absolute safety of rations, stabilize corn, expand soybeans, strictly control the processing of corn fuel ethanol, vigorously develop the forage industry, and ease the pressure on feed demand.

(Economic Daily reporter Liu Hui)

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