Zhongxin Finance, May 20 (Zuo Yukun) After a lapse of four months, the LPR has finally been lowered again.

And this time, it can be regarded as a "small stove" for real estate.

  The latest loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) released by the National Interbank Funding Center authorized by the People's Bank of China shows that the one-year LPR remains unchanged at 3.7%; the LPR for more than five years is reduced by 15 basis points to 4.45%.

Data map: Citizens pass by the People's Bank of China.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Xinglong

It has been lowered again after a lapse of April, with two major characteristics

  "LPR has ended 4 consecutive months of 'no action', and LPR with a period of more than 5 years has fallen in large steps of 15 basis points. The actual role and signal significance are very important." said Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China Merchants Union Finance.

  Specifically, there are two new features in the downside of LPR this time.

  First, the cut in interest rates on the Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF), which is "linked" to it, has recently been left unchanged.

  "LPR consists of two parts, namely, the open market operation interest rate and the plus point. The open market operation interest rate mainly refers to the medium-term lending facility (MLF) interest rate." Dong Ximiao explained that in general, if the MLF does not change, the LPR is difficult to change.

  On the 15th of this month, the central bank launched a one-year MLF operation of 100 billion yuan, and the operating interest rate was 2.85%, the same as the previous month.

Dong Ximiao pointed out that while the MLF operating interest rate has not changed this month, the LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years has dropped sharply this month, which is the first time since the new LPR mechanism in 2019.

  Secondly, only the varieties with a period of more than 5 years go down alone.

  "This is the first time since the reform of the LPR quotation formation mechanism that the 1-year LPR has not fallen, the 5-year LPR has fallen, and the 5-year LPR has recorded the largest decline." Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, pointed out that this structural interest rate cut It reflects that in the current critical period of stable growth, the financial sector has stepped up efforts to bail out the real economy, boost effective demand, and stabilize economic growth.

Data map: Bank staff counts currency.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Yun

Why is the

LPR for a period of more than 5 years reduced by such a large margin

?

  Although the decline in LPR this month was in line with market expectations, the largest drop in history of 15 basis points exceeded many people's expectations.

But from April onwards, the central bank's many new measures to reduce the cost of banks' liabilities can also be glimpsed.

  Dong Ximiao said that firstly, on April 25, the central bank implemented a comprehensive RRR cut, which provided banks with long-term low-cost funds and reduced the cost of capital; secondly, the central bank strengthened the supervision of the deposit market, such as establishing a market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates to reduce deposit cost.

This reduces the bank's capital cost to a certain extent, so that the bank has room to reduce additional points.

  The effects of the above policies are also immediate.

After the establishment of the new mechanism, state-owned banks such as the Postal Savings of Workers and Peasants, and most joint-stock banks have lowered their interest rates on time deposits with a maturity of more than one year and large-denomination certificates of deposit in late April, and some local corporate institutions have also lowered their interest rates accordingly.

  Of course, under the circumstance of increasing downward pressure on the economy and insufficient demand for effective credit, commercial banks are also willing to squeeze more space, reduce LPR, and push down loan interest rates, so as to reduce the financing costs of enterprises and residents, and stabilize market confidence and expectations. Stimulate the investment demand of enterprises and the consumption demand of residents.

  "The 1-year LPR has not declined, mainly because the bailout of entities at the end of last year was very strong. The 1-year LPR dropped for 2 months before, by 15 basis points; and the funding was frequent, the interest rate of treasury bonds and lending rates have dropped significantly. But judging from the data in April, the property market has experienced a very obvious downturn, and it has even entered a downward cycle guided by the continuous decline in confidence, and there is an urgent need to 'targeted interest rate cuts'." said Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Planning Institute.

  "While the one-year LPR remains unchanged, the LPR for more than five years has been greatly reduced, which reflects the bank's initiative to make profits, reduce the medium and long-term financing costs of the real economy, and support medium and long-term credit growth." Wen Bin said.

  "Overall, this month's LPR changes reflect the further strengthening of monetary policy to support stable growth, which will play a positive role in reducing financing costs for the real economy and boosting domestic investment and consumer demand." Wen Bin expects that in the next stage, Monetary policy will continue to play the dual functions of total volume and structure, increase efforts to bail out industries, enterprises and people in difficulty, and promote economic stabilization and recovery, operating within a reasonable range.

Data map: Photo by Chen Chao, a reporter from China News Agency, a high-rise commercial residential building

Mortgage interest rates drop again, and the monthly payment for one million mortgages is 89 yuan less

  Of course, this LPR change will benefit people with mortgages a lot.

  On May 15, after the central bank announced that the lower limit of the first-home loan interest rate was adjusted to be no less than 20 basis points from the market quoted interest rate of the corresponding term loan, the report released by the E-House Research Institute Think Tank Center on the 19th pointed out that there are currently companies including Guangzhou, Shenzhen, In 20 cities including Tianjin, Jinan, Qingdao, Zhengzhou, Suzhou, Kunming and other 20 cities, the minimum interest rate for the first home has dropped to the minimum 4.4%.

  Compared with the policy on the 15th, which is aimed at purchasing the first home, the change in the 5-year LPR this time is "everywhere in the world", and all mortgage buyers can enjoy a discount of 15 basis points.

  Calculated based on the loan amount of 1 million, the term of 30 years, and equal principal and interest repayment, the LPR for more than 5 years is reduced by 15 basis points from the previous 4.6%, and the monthly payment can be reduced by about 89 yuan per month on average, and the total amount of interest to be repaid is reduced. more than 30,000.

More directly, the 30-year monthly payment of 1 million for some urban home buyers is expected to be less than 5,000 yuan for the first time.

  Of course, for mortgage applicants who are about to buy their first home just needed, it cannot be ruled out that the interest rate for the first home will be further lowered on the basis of 4.4% in the next step.

If combined with the double factors of a 15 basis point reduction in LPR for a period of more than 5 years and a 20 basis point reduction by the bank, the actual mortgage interest rate can become 4.25%, and the monthly mortgage payment will be significantly reduced by 207% if the mortgage interest rate is reduced from 4.6% to 4.25%. Yuan.

  "But in the actual process, the interest adjustment of the existing mortgage users or the home buyers who are already repaying the loan will not be able to reduce the interest until after the New Year's Day next year." Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, reminded that the recent new For families who buy a house, the lowest interest rate will be 4.25%.

Judging from the recent actions of banks, the interest rate of 4.4% is generally regarded as the target value for the recent reduction.

  "The property market policy is exhausted, and the market is gradually stabilizing." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, believes that for home buyers, housing and not speculating is still the policy direction, but some cities, especially first- and second-tier cities, are gradually bottoming out, and the market is rapidly stabilizing will be the trend.

  "As the economic and social cycle is on the right track, a package of policies has begun to take effect, including bailouts from the epidemic, incentives for the property market in various places, and interest rate cuts by the central bank. The superimposed effect will be fully manifested in the second half of the year." Li Yujia also expects that the bottom of house prices and sales have begun to appear. , will fully recover in the second half of the year.

(Finish)

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