The social financing data in April was significantly lower than market expectations. The negative impact of the repeated ups and downs of the epidemic on financing demand is very obvious, and the impact on the banking industry is self-evident.
A number of bankers said frankly that due to the upgrade of epidemic prevention measures and the economic downturn, the demand for credit was relatively sluggish during the year.
Banks are also worried about risks, and there are problems of prudent lending and reluctance to lend.
In this context, the performance indicators burdened by bank salesmen have not decreased accordingly. In addition to the sinking of large banks, the industry competition has become more intense, and the phenomenon of "pinching the tip" of banks has become more and more obvious.
"Now everyone is striving for high-quality customers regardless of cost, and some customers even get lower loan interest rates than some bank deposit products, which can arbitrage the bank's interest rate spread." A person from a major bank in East China told brokerage China reporter.
Chinese reporters from securities companies have also learned from various interviews that some provinces and cities in East China have entered the stage of resumption of work and production, and the demand suppression caused by the previous control measures is rapidly fading. Since May, there has been a surge in corporate financing needs, showing the strong resilience of the economy.
All aspects of credit demand
The April social financing and economic data released by the central bank showed that the new scale of social financing decreased by nearly 1 trillion yuan year-on-year, which was obviously lower than market expectations.
In addition, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in the month.
"Now that the market uncertainty has increased, many good companies are reluctant to expand their scale, and the demand for credit has naturally weakened." An executive of a city commercial bank in the southeastern region said.
As shown by the macro data, Chinese reporters from securities companies also learned from a number of interviewed bankers that the demand for credit in the real economy has weakened.
The above-mentioned city commercial bank executives said that the credit demand in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou has weakened significantly, and the overall credit scale has been shrinking year-on-year.
"On the one hand, the macro economy is weak, and market players are not willing to invest and finance, such as unwillingness to expand production; on the other hand, although regulators require commercial banks to increase credit support for the real economy, no substantial supporting policies have been introduced, and commercial The phenomenon of banks being cautious and reluctant to lend still exists," said a person from a branch of a major bank in the central province.
It is worth noting that there are significant geographical differences in credit demand.
A person from a major state-owned bank in a province less affected by the epidemic said credit demand in his area remained stable.
Another big banker from East China told a brokerage China reporter that since the province and city where he is located entered the stage of resumption of work and production in May, there has been a surge in credit demand.
"There were relatively few companies that took out loans some time ago, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic; now that the lockdown has begun to be lifted, many companies need a relatively large amount of capital to resume work and production, and they need bank support." He added, "There are many loans at this stage, and there is no need to do so. I went out to find a lot of customers. Especially small and medium-sized enterprises in industries such as commerce, chemical industry, export, engineering, and building materials are in the peak season of capital demand. To pre-deposit, these all require funds.”
Be alert to the long-term impact of the epidemic
At present, the credit issuance of banks in some regions has been significantly affected by the repeated disturbances of the epidemic, especially in Shanghai and other regions due to stricter prevention and control and isolation measures, the incremental credit business of some local banks was almost stagnant for a time.
A person from a city commercial bank in Shanghai told a Chinese reporter from a brokerage firm that the credit process involves the cooperation of multiple links and positions in the front, middle and back offices. Due to the unknown duration and scope of the epidemic, some business operations are facing severe impacts of direct interruption. .
"Xingli requires that in principle not to do new credit business, but also to support the real economy. In principle, the existing business can be fully developed and extended, and no penalty interest shall be charged." The source revealed.
Compared with the demand suppression caused by short-term risk control factors, the long-term impact of the epidemic may not be ignored.
A person from a major bank in East China told a Chinese reporter from a brokerage firm that due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, some business owners were worried about business risks and were reluctant to invest the money they earned in business expansion, but instead deposited them in banks to "eat interest".
Increased economic uncertainty has also made banks more cautious about lending.
"The liquidity of banks is relatively abundant, especially for qualified small and medium-sized enterprises. Funds are 'everything'. Loan officers are also working hard to increase capital investment, but how to balance investment and risks is currently a difficulty." The person further He added, "I'm afraid that the company's business is not good, and there will be risks at that time. The salesperson also attaches great importance to this aspect."
The aforementioned city commercial bankers also said that the current stock risk is relatively large, resulting in a tightening of the risk control threshold for new investment.
"The risk exposure of loans will take a period of time. Now many companies that encountered difficulties in the early stage of the epidemic have not eased their tone and have been deferred. We are worried that after a period of time for these companies, the risks will gradually be reflected." the person said.
The exhibition is busy with "pinching the tip"
With the different adjustments at both ends of supply and demand, the initiative between "investment and lending" has changed in some fields.
"In the past, you made me unable to climb high, but today I ignore you." This is a joke about bank loans by the person in charge of a science and technology innovation enterprise settled in the Yangtze River Delta in an interview with a brokerage China.
According to his recollection, as early as 2012, the enterprise was in its infancy, and the demand for funds was urgent, but there were not many banks willing to provide credit services.
After experiencing a period of embarrassing "difficulty in starting a business", this science and technology enterprise has gradually stabilized its operation. Now many banks are eyeing this enterprise again, hoping to provide credit services for it.
"In the past two years, high-quality technology-based companies have become the customers that banks compete for. They have strong bargaining power and banks' interest rate spreads are relatively low." A person from a large bank told a Chinese reporter from a brokerage firm that business owners who came to seek financial support would not However, it is difficult to find loan customers with good qualifications. “It must have both development potential, capital flow and good reputation.”
Another senior practitioner, also from a big bank, told a Chinese reporter from a brokerage firm that companies with good development potential and qualifications often do not have so many capital needs. Relying on their own cash flow, many business owners are not used to relying on financial services. The tool realizes its own financing, but many enterprises with capital needs are unstable in operation, and the bank does not dare to lend. This is also a contradiction facing the current bank.
Relatively high-quality financing customers are limited, but the performance indicators burdened by bank salesmen are only increasing. As a result, the banking industry has become more "rolled".
"Now everyone is striving for high-quality customers regardless of cost, and some customers even get lower loan interest rates than some bank deposit products, which can arbitrage bank interest margins." The aforementioned big banker told the brokerage China reporter.
The big bank sinks and divides the "cake"
At the same time, the extensive application of financial technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence has created technical conditions for the sinking of large banks, but it has also intensified the competition between large and medium-sized banks for the market and customers to a certain extent.
Recently, Wang Jian, chief analyst of the financial industry of Guosen Securities, selected 6 large state-owned banks, 8 joint-stock banks, and 13 urban and rural commercial banks as samples, and netted out the data of other banks.
By analyzing the market share of the aforementioned various types of bank loan increments, it is found that the market share of the incremental loans of large state-owned banks has increased year by year since 2018, and has exceeded 50% in the first quarter of 2022; 13 leading city commercial banks were selected. , the proportion of rural commercial banks is relatively stable, while the incremental market share of joint-stock banks and other banks has shown a downward trend.
Big banks have a significant advantage in their lower cost of capital.
"For our customers who lend 4%, they can borrow 3%. The price war will definitely not be able to fight with big banks." The aforementioned city commercial bank said.
However, a practitioner from a large bank believes that the sinking of the big bank does not mean a unilateral harvest. "The joint-stock banks and urban and rural commercial banks are also striving to win the original high-quality customers of the big bank, and the entire industry is involuntarily involved. , the pressure on the big banks is also increasing.”
This situation has also been corroborated by a well-known person in the inclusive business.
He pointed out that in the past, some small enterprises had difficulty getting loans from big banks because of their own qualifications. , good connections and user habits have been established.”
In the stage of service sinking by large banks, the service habits of local business owners have not changed in a short period of time.
"We have a phenomenon here. After a small business owner came, they found that our interest rate was lower than that of the regional banks before, but many people didn't know it." The acceptance of Pratt & Whitney content promotion is not high. On the other hand, the big bank's process decision-making chain is long, and there is no way to guarantee timely service to some customers who are eager to use money.
Facing the competitive pressure of sinking big banks, local banks urgently need to use their own advantages to differentiate themselves.
"As the big banks sink, small and medium-sized banks can only sink further than them, that is, the customer base sinks and the guarantee method sinks. For example, if the big banks require collateral, we provide credit products to maintain the scale of business investment. "The aforementioned city commercial bank person said, "Our regional resources are more concentrated, and the local personnel investment can be larger than that of the big banks, and the service will be better."
Reporter's observation: The transformation of credit structure needs to keep up with the pace in time
Industry analysts are actually not pessimistic about the current pent-up financing demand due to the impact of the epidemic.
"It is expected that with the progress of resumption of work and production, this part of the demand will gradually rebound." Huaan Securities recently released a research report pointed out.
However, in the long run, the phenomenon of "involution" caused by the difficulty of credit issuance in the banking industry actually reflects the problem of homogenization of banking business, and the task of financial supply-side reform is still arduous.
A person in charge of corporate finance who has worked in a bank for many years said that although the supply-side reform has been carried out for some time, the main financing channel for companies is now bank credit.
"It needs to be recognized that banks cannot solve all problems." He further said, "Banks themselves are risky enterprises. Considering business sustainability, the most basic thing is to balance risk and return. For example, a start-up that has just been established for a few months. Enterprises should ask banks to lend to them. From the bank’s point of view, it is also unreasonable, and the source of funds suitable for such enterprises is venture capital such as venture capital.”
As early as April 2020, the "Opinions on Building a More Perfect Market-Based Allocation System and Mechanism for Factors" issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council has made it clear that it is necessary to build a multi-level, wide-coverage, differentiated banking institution with a reasonable division of labor between large, medium and small. system and optimize the allocation of financial resources.
Chen Jia, a researcher at the International Monetary Institute of Renmin University of China, said that China has a vast territory, and there are differences in regions, culture, and economy. In addition, the development status of the majority of small, medium and micro enterprises is also different. These require more accurate and timely information. Therefore, it is bound to call for more supply-side structural reforms to adapt.
However, at present, China's economy is turning to high-quality development. In the process of alternating new and old kinetic energy, how to use new concepts such as green credit and digital economy to continuously promote the transformation of bank credit structure, the industry is still exploring.
"The reliance of financial institutions on the traditional real estate industry and government financing platform loans has not changed in a short period of time, which is also a major difficulty in current credit issuance." A person from a large bank in East China said that in recent years, banks have also Banks are still more cautious due to the uncertainty of business operations and the general lack of collateral for such enterprises.
As the economy shifts to high-quality development, the more than 4,000 small and medium-sized banks rooted in the vast soil of China must continue to explore differentiated positioning in order to gain a foothold in the increasingly competitive industry environment, and then establish a system that can satisfy the diversification of the real economy. A multi-layered financial system for financing needs.